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IF Elfsborg have made three changes from the side expected, with Isak Pettersson, Arbër Zeneli and Momoh Kamara out of the eleven.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"confirmed","changes":{"home":{"n":1,"out":["Mads Døhr Thychosen"],"in":["Eskil Edh"]},"away":{"n":3,"out":["Isak Pettersson","Arbër Zeneli","Momoh Kamara"],"in":["Theo Sander","Simon Olsson","Simon Hedlund"]}}},"strength":0.8,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AIK are safely mid-table; IF Elfsborg are chasing European qualification, with 4 games remaining.","evidence":{"games_left":4,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":8,"points":37,"games_left":4,"gap_to_leader":18,"gap_to_safety":17,"gap_to_europe":8},"away":{"state":"european_chase","position":5,"points":42,"games_left":4,"gap_to_leader":13,"gap_to_safety":22,"gap_to_europe":3},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0.625,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3.3}]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Jose Riveiro has 68 matches in charge at AIK, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Jose Riveiro","matches_in_charge":68,"tenure_days":576,"ppm":1.54,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.2,"after_ppm":2.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Björn Hamberg has 65 matches in charge at IF Elfsborg, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Björn Hamberg","matches_in_charge":65,"tenure_days":577,"ppm":1.46,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.1,"after_ppm":2.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AIK come in on 3 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.2083333333333335,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":3.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"IF Elfsborg come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.041666666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":4},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.13,"defence":-0.163,"effective_matches":15.2,"shrunk":0.34},"away":{"attack":0.039,"defence":0.161,"effective_matches":14.9,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; IF Elfsborg work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":55.3,"shots":14.3,"xg_per_shot":0.129,"corners":3.9,"corners_per_shot":0.273,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.02},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":50.7,"shots":14.2,"xg_per_shot":0.106,"corners":5.6,"corners_per_shot":0.394,"finishing_vs_xg":0.07},"possession_gap":4.6},"strength":0.184,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AIK are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.02,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"IF Elfsborg are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.07,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"101 yellow cards in this referee's last 30 games, where 98 would be usual in this league, and 2 reds.","evidence":{"matches":30,"yellows_per_match":3.37,"reds_per_match":0.067,"league_yellows_per_match":3.27,"league_reds_per_match":0.085,"yellow_ratio":1.03,"red_ratio":0.78},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 346 km for IF Elfsborg.","evidence":{"travel_km":346},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Conditions: 1°C, with a hard surface likely.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":6,"temperature_c":1,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0.25,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"both","pct":1.8}]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.12946502050582648},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Elfsborg should exploit a crumbling AIK side to claim an away victory. While the visitors have relied on goalkeeper heroics to mask defensive frailty, they remain far more disciplined than their hosts. AIK are routinely carved open, surrendering at least six shots on target in most recent outings. With their creative talisman sidelined, the home side lacks the spark needed to bypass an Elfsborg defense that has kept three clean sheets in six. Although Elfsborg have struggled to generate chances on the road lately, their top scorer is in brilliant form. He will punish a defensive unit depleted by eight absences. Defensive structure, not just talent, will decide this result.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6106,"created_at":"2026-10-21T02:15:19Z","event":{"id":46504,"event_date":"2026-10-27T18:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":449,"home_team":"AIK","away_team_id":440,"away_team":"IF Elfsborg","league_id":26,"league_name":"Allsvenskan"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":41.8,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4177,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793122845,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#1e4162","away":"#edd41e"},"venue":{"name":"Strawberry Arena","city":"Solna","capacity":50000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}