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them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.208333333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Malmö FF come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.104166666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.056,"defence":0.149,"effective_matches":14.1,"shrunk":0.36},"away":{"attack":0.049,"defence":0.06,"effective_matches":14.3,"shrunk":0.36}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":52.3,"shots":14.9,"xg_per_shot":0.12,"corners":5.3,"corners_per_shot":0.352,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.28},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":59.1,"shots":16.4,"xg_per_shot":0.091,"corners":5,"corners_per_shot":0.306,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.16},"possession_gap":-6.8},"strength":0.273,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"IF Elfsborg have scored 3 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.28,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Malmö FF are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.16,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"116 yellow cards in this referee's last 39 games, where 128 would be usual in this league, and 2 reds.","evidence":{"matches":39,"yellows_per_match":2.97,"reds_per_match":0.051,"league_yellows_per_match":3.28,"league_reds_per_match":0.099,"yellow_ratio":0.91,"red_ratio":0.52},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":-2.1}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 240 km for Malmö FF.","evidence":{"travel_km":240},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":12.4,"temperature_c":7,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.1775939180533519},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"The results here are not telling the whole story. IF Elfsborg have conceded only 5 in their last nine when the chances they allowed would usually cost about 11. Their goalkeeper and their luck have carried them. Meanwhile, Malmö FF have scored only 10 in their last nine from chances that would usually bring about 14. The goals are coming. Whoever makes the better chances on the day takes this one.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5586,"created_at":"2026-10-17T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":46499,"event_date":"2026-10-23T17:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":440,"home_team":"IF Elfsborg","away_team_id":135,"away_team":"Malmö FF","league_id":26,"league_name":"Allsvenskan"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":44.8,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4477,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792658230,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#edd41e","away":"#0f88bc"},"venue":{"name":"Borås Arena","city":"Boras","capacity":17800},"pulled":[],"published":[]}