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remaining.","evidence":{"games_left":7,"home":{"state":"european_chase","position":8,"points":33,"games_left":7,"gap_to_leader":18,"gap_to_safety":14,"gap_to_europe":4},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":11,"points":27,"games_left":7,"gap_to_leader":24,"gap_to_safety":8,"gap_to_europe":10},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0.5,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":2.6}]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 2-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Jose Riveiro has 61 matches in charge at AIK, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Jose Riveiro","matches_in_charge":61,"tenure_days":559,"ppm":1.51,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.2,"after_ppm":2.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Ulf Kristiansson has 61 matches in charge at IF Brommapojkarna, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Ulf Kristiansson","matches_in_charge":61,"tenure_days":561,"ppm":1.05,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.9,"after_ppm":1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AIK come in on 20 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":20.041666666666668,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":0,"days_rest":20},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"IF Brommapojkarna come in on 21 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind 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areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":53.3,"shots":13.3,"xg_per_shot":0.119,"corners":3.8,"corners_per_shot":0.283,"finishing_vs_xg":0.01},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":47.3,"shots":11.1,"xg_per_shot":0.105,"corners":4.6,"corners_per_shot":0.414,"finishing_vs_xg":0.09},"possession_gap":6},"strength":0.24,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AIK are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.01,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"IF Brommapojkarna are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.09,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":4.8,"temperature_c":14,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.16748626975191894},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4570,"created_at":"2026-10-04T02:15:24Z","event":{"id":46480,"event_date":"2026-10-10T13:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":449,"home_team":"AIK","away_team_id":437,"away_team":"IF Brommapojkarna","league_id":26,"league_name":"Allsvenskan"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":48,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4802,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1791395821,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#1e4162","away":"#a08136"},"venue":{"name":"Strawberry Arena","city":"Solna","capacity":50000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}