{"id":46479,"league_id":26,"league":"Allsvenskan","kickoff":1789831800,"home":"Örgryte IS","away":"IK Sirius","home_id":450,"away_id":447,"verdicts":[],"markets":[],"restored":true,"status":"finished","score":[1,2],"colors":{"home":"#0a2576","away":"#0d5f9e"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[{"market":"over_under_15","outcome":"over","line":1.5,"odds":1.15,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle","model_prob":0.835,"narrative":"Over 1.5 goals at 1.15. The model reads this as a 3.39-goal match, and the call follows from that number rather than from either side. On top of that, with 8 games remaining, Örgryte IS are fighting relegation — and that shapes how this is played more than the team sheet does. Everything above points the same way: more than 1.5 goals in it. Call it 84%. Nothing in the pricing disagrees, so take this as a read on the match rather than on the odds.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":2,"closeness":"clear","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":3,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"It landed with room to spare."}},{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"X2","line":null,"odds":1.15,"bookmaker":"William Hill","model_prob":0.828828828828829,"narrative":"Double chance X2 at 1.15. Expected goals split 2.15 to 1.24, 3.39 in the match. The shape of that total is what this call reads. Pulling the same way, the table puts Örgryte IS fighting relegation, which is the strongest single influence on how cautious this becomes. Take the lot together and IK Sirius avoiding defeat is the read. 83% likely, returning 15p in the pound. The confidence is the point here, not the payout.","why":null,"result":"WON","settled":true,"postmortem":{"landed":"landed","swing":2,"closeness":"clear","shape":null,"expected_total":null,"actual_total":3,"market":null,"opening_odds":null,"closing_odds":null,"line":"It landed with room to spare."}}]}