{"id":224674,"league_id":87,"league":"League Two","kickoff":1792245600,"home":"Port Vale","away":"Chesterfield","home_id":1417,"away_id":1434,"venue_id":867,"rank":5,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.565,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.17,1.14],"read":{"text":"Too close to call","side":null},"pass":"Port Vale v Chesterfield is one to leave alone. The likely outcome is priced too short to be worth taking, and nothing else is sure enough to call.","flags":[],"lambda_home":1.1660466414491235,"lambda_away":1.1376513414751077,"corner_rate":9.2,"card_rate":0.154,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.723,"home":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":36189,"name":"Jackson Smith","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.64},{"id":33495,"name":"Jaheim Headley","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.615},{"id":33494,"name":"Connor Hall","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.627},{"id":9988,"name":"Lewis Montsma","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.617},{"id":33491,"name":"Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.789},{"id":26766,"name":"Kyle Dempsey","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.805},{"id":33500,"name":"Ben Garrity","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.553},{"id":6866,"name":"Onel Hernández","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.444},{"id":33496,"name":"George Hall","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.519},{"id":33693,"name":"Ben Waine","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.413},{"id":45703,"name":"Oliver Lynch","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.574},{"id":33493,"name":"Cameron Humphreys","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.591},{"id":33688,"name":"Liam Gordon","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.518},{"id":33498,"name":"Rhys Walters","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.506},{"id":33505,"name":"George Byers","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.484},{"id":33689,"name":"Kyle John","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.399},{"id":33503,"name":"Marko Maroši","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.36},{"id":33506,"name":"Mo Faal","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.306},{"id":33745,"name":"Jasper Moon","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.244},{"id":5877,"name":"Max Watters","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.226},{"id":33497,"name":"Ryan Croasdale","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.203},{"id":37334,"name":"Tyreece Simpson","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.183},{"id":33548,"name":"Maleace Asamoah","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.148}],"confidence":0.723},"away":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":33935,"name":"Ryan Boot","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.861},{"id":33923,"name":"Lewis Gordon","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.853},{"id":34043,"name":"Jack Simpson","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.868},{"id":33922,"name":"Kyle McFadzean","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.806},{"id":33982,"name":"Remeao Hutton","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.857},{"id":33925,"name":"Ryan Stirk","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.865},{"id":33126,"name":"George James McEachran","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.856},{"id":36516,"name":"Josh Koroma","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.608},{"id":26709,"name":"Joel Randall","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.441},{"id":33926,"name":"Dilan Markanday","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.867},{"id":33932,"name":"Lee Bonis","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.791},{"id":7106,"name":"Louie Marsh","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.639},{"id":33933,"name":"Liam Mandeville","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.424},{"id":5646,"name":"Alfie Pond","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.285},{"id":115188,"name":"Fraser Bryden","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.268},{"id":33930,"name":"Tom Naylor","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.265},{"id":9728,"name":"Tom Pearce","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.219},{"id":35749,"name":"Malik Owolabi-Belewu","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.215},{"id":34068,"name":"Ruel Sotiriou","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.212},{"id":8762,"name":"Rafiq Lamptey","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.209},{"id":5425,"name":"Kiano Dyer","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.205},{"id":42785,"name":"Junior Eccleston","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.173},{"id":33929,"name":"Will Grigg","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.172}],"confidence":0.914},"unavailable":[]},"people":[{"id":36189,"name":"Jackson Smith","side":"home"},{"id":33495,"name":"Jaheim Headley","side":"home"},{"id":33494,"name":"Connor Hall","side":"home"},{"id":9988,"name":"Lewis Montsma","side":"home"},{"id":33491,"name":"Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel","side":"home"},{"id":26766,"name":"Kyle Dempsey","side":"home"},{"id":33500,"name":"Ben Garrity","side":"home"},{"id":6866,"name":"Onel Hernández","side":"home"},{"id":33496,"name":"George Hall","side":"home"},{"id":33693,"name":"Ben Waine","side":"home"},{"id":45703,"name":"Oliver Lynch","side":"home"},{"id":33493,"name":"Cameron Humphreys","side":"home"},{"id":33688,"name":"Liam Gordon","side":"home"},{"id":33498,"name":"Rhys Walters","side":"home"},{"id":33505,"name":"George Byers","side":"home"},{"id":33689,"name":"Kyle John","side":"home"},{"id":33503,"name":"Marko Maroši","side":"home"},{"id":33506,"name":"Mo Faal","side":"home"},{"id":33745,"name":"Jasper Moon","side":"home"},{"id":5877,"name":"Max Watters","side":"home"},{"id":33497,"name":"Ryan Croasdale","side":"home"},{"id":37334,"name":"Tyreece Simpson","side":"home"},{"id":33548,"name":"Maleace Asamoah","side":"home"},{"id":46538,"name":"Aaron McGowan","side":"home"},{"id":211393,"name":"Jordan Gabriel","side":"home"},{"id":32364,"name":"Keyrol Figueroa","side":"home"},{"id":211302,"name":"Keaton Moseley","side":"home"},{"id":217718,"name":"Theo Morgan","side":"home"},{"id":64240,"name":"Matthew Craig","side":"home"},{"id":36985,"name":"Charlie Bussel","side":"home"},{"id":150605,"name":"Charlie Bussell","side":"home"},{"id":33935,"name":"Ryan Boot","side":"away"},{"id":33923,"name":"Lewis Gordon","side":"away"},{"id":34043,"name":"Jack Simpson","side":"away"},{"id":33922,"name":"Kyle McFadzean","side":"away"},{"id":33982,"name":"Remeao Hutton","side":"away"},{"id":33925,"name":"Ryan Stirk","side":"away"},{"id":33126,"name":"George James McEachran","side":"away"},{"id":36516,"name":"Josh Koroma","side":"away"},{"id":26709,"name":"Joel Randall","side":"away"},{"id":33926,"name":"Dilan Markanday","side":"away"},{"id":33932,"name":"Lee Bonis","side":"away"},{"id":7106,"name":"Louie Marsh","side":"away"},{"id":33933,"name":"Liam Mandeville","side":"away"},{"id":5646,"name":"Alfie Pond","side":"away"},{"id":115188,"name":"Fraser Bryden","side":"away"},{"id":33930,"name":"Tom Naylor","side":"away"},{"id":9728,"name":"Tom Pearce","side":"away"},{"id":35749,"name":"Malik Owolabi-Belewu","side":"away"},{"id":34068,"name":"Ruel Sotiriou","side":"away"},{"id":8762,"name":"Rafiq Lamptey","side":"away"},{"id":5425,"name":"Kiano Dyer","side":"away"},{"id":42785,"name":"Junior Eccleston","side":"away"},{"id":33929,"name":"Will Grigg","side":"away"},{"id":115189,"name":"Danny Anisjko","side":"away"},{"id":35739,"name":"Will Dickson","side":"away"},{"id":35741,"name":"Gunner Elliott","side":"away"},{"id":33919,"name":"Zac Hemming","side":"away"},{"id":54813,"name":"James Sissons","side":"away"},{"id":33931,"name":"Dylan Duffy","side":"away"},{"id":46519,"name":"Connor Cook","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":33505,"name":"George Byers","side":"home","team":"Port Vale","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":6,"starts":4,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":6,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Tranmere Rovers","kickoff":1787407200,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-1","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.125,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":10,"country":0}},{"id":45703,"name":"Oliver Lynch","side":"home","team":"Port Vale","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":9,"starts":6,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":9,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Swindon Town","kickoff":1788288300,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-3","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.054,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":19,"country":0}},{"id":6866,"name":"Onel Hernández","side":"home","team":"Port Vale","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"LW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":9,"starts":3,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":9,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Grimsby Town","kickoff":1791640800,"goals":0,"assists":0,"score":"1-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.009,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":79,"country":0}},{"id":7106,"name":"Louie Marsh","side":"away","team":"Chesterfield","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":7,"starts":6,"goals":5,"assists":1,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":15,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":3,"assists":1,"scoredIn":3,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Barnet","kickoff":1788616800,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"3-3","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","best_performer","in_form"],"importance":0.303,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":86,"country":0}},{"id":33932,"name":"Lee Bonis","side":"away","team":"Chesterfield","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":11,"starts":10,"goals":4,"assists":2,"big_chances":4,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":15,"tracked_apps":11,"tracked_starts":10},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":3,"assists":1,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"York City","kickoff":1789826400,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["in_form"],"importance":0.223,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":90,"country":0}}],"extras":null,"notable":[{"id":35382,"name":"Charlie McCann","goals":7,"rank":1},{"id":46264,"name":"Alex Newby","goals":6,"rank":2},{"id":37573,"name":"Charlie Lakin","goals":6,"rank":3},{"id":34019,"name":"Aaron Drinan","goals":5,"rank":4},{"id":37571,"name":"Aaron Pressley","goals":5,"rank":5},{"id":33677,"name":"Charlie Caton","goals":5,"rank":6},{"id":34246,"name":"Kabongo Tshimanga","goals":5,"rank":7},{"id":7106,"name":"Louie Marsh","goals":5,"rank":8},{"id":33549,"name":"Paul Mullin","goals":5,"rank":9},{"id":63280,"name":"Shaquille Gwengwe","goals":5,"rank":10},{"id":6232,"name":"Andreas Weimann","goals":4,"rank":11},{"id":46485,"name":"Calum Kavanagh","goals":4,"rank":12},{"id":33932,"name":"Lee Bonis","goals":4,"rank":13},{"id":46256,"name":"Ollie Pearce","goals":4,"rank":14},{"id":36113,"name":"Ronan Hale","goals":4,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 11","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":18,"home_wins":5,"draws":3,"away_wins":10,"home_goals":21,"away_goals":28,"avg_total_goals":2.7222222222222223,"home_win_rate":0.2777777777777778,"away_win_rate":0.5555555555555556,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Port Vale","date":"2025-01-25T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Chesterfield","score":"1-1","event_id":235136,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1417,"home_team_id":1434},{"away":"Chesterfield","date":"2024-09-14T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Port Vale","score":"1-0","event_id":234851,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1434,"home_team_id":1417},{"away":"Chesterfield","date":"2018-03-30T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Port Vale","score":"2-1","event_id":348340,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":1434,"home_team_id":1417},{"away":"Port Vale","date":"2017-08-19T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Chesterfield","score":"2-0","event_id":347867,"away_score":0,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":1417,"home_team_id":1434},{"away":"Port Vale","date":"2017-04-08T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Chesterfield","score":"1-0","event_id":362813,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1417,"home_team_id":1434},{"away":"Chesterfield","date":"2016-12-30T19:45:00+00:00","home":"Port Vale","score":"1-0","event_id":362574,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1434,"home_team_id":1417},{"away":"Port Vale","date":"2016-04-02T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Chesterfield","score":"4-2","event_id":381896,"away_score":2,"home_score":4,"away_team_id":1417,"home_team_id":1434},{"away":"Chesterfield","date":"2015-11-21T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Port Vale","score":"3-2","event_id":381613,"away_score":2,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":1434,"home_team_id":1417},{"away":"Port Vale","date":"2015-01-10T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Chesterfield","score":"3-0","event_id":396800,"away_score":0,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":1417,"home_team_id":1434},{"away":"Chesterfield","date":"2014-08-30T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Port Vale","score":"1-2","event_id":396543,"away_score":2,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1434,"home_team_id":1417}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":1417,"position":22,"played":8,"points":8,"goal_diff":-5,"team_name":"Port Vale","won":2,"drawn":2,"lost":4,"goals_for":4,"goals_against":9,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":1434,"position":7,"played":10,"points":15,"goal_diff":3,"team_name":"Chesterfield","won":4,"drawn":3,"lost":3,"goals_for":17,"goals_against":14,"group":null},"size":24},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.17,"record":"2-1-3","goals_for":0.5,"goals_against":1,"clean_sheets":3,"streak":"none","sequence":"DLLWLW","venue_ppg":2.33},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.83,"record":"3-2-1","goals_for":2.33,"goals_against":1.67,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"none","sequence":"DWWLWD","venue_ppg":1.33}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Port Vale report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.away.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Chesterfield report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.723,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.277,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":35,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":22,"points":8,"games_left":35,"gap_to_leader":11,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":7},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":7,"points":15,"games_left":35,"gap_to_leader":4,"gap_to_safety":7,"gap_to_europe":0},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Jon Brady has 58 matches in charge at Port Vale, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Jon Brady","matches_in_charge":58,"tenure_days":389,"ppm":1.21,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.4,"after_ppm":0.9,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Paul Cook has 64 matches in charge at Chesterfield, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Paul Cook","matches_in_charge":64,"tenure_days":432,"ppm":1.52,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":1.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Port Vale come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Chesterfield come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.147,"defence":0.078,"effective_matches":7,"shrunk":0.53},"away":{"attack":0.158,"defence":0.041,"effective_matches":17.4,"shrunk":0.32}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Chesterfield average 12 points more possession than Port Vale, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":47.6,"shots":11.6,"xg_per_shot":0.13,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.417,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.92},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":59.4,"shots":18.3,"xg_per_shot":0.107,"corners":6.1,"corners_per_shot":0.333,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.46},"possession_gap":-11.7},"strength":0.469,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":2.5},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-2.5},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Port Vale have scored 11 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.92,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Chesterfield have scored 6 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.46,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.2628956581444839},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5108,"created_at":"2026-10-11T02:15:31Z","event":{"id":224674,"event_date":"2026-10-17T14:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1417,"home_team":"Port Vale","away_team_id":1434,"away_team":"Chesterfield","league_id":87,"league_name":"League Two"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":37.9,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3786,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792037690,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#9c9696","away":"#0b498b"},"venue":{"name":"Vale Park","city":"Stoke","capacity":18947},"pulled":[],"published":[]}