{"id":224672,"league_id":87,"league":"League Two","kickoff":1792245600,"home":"Newport County","away":"York City","home_id":1429,"away_id":1892,"venue_id":879,"rank":5,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.531,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.26,1.4],"read":{"text":"York City to edge it","side":"away"},"pass":"No call on Newport County against York City. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","note":"York City average 25 points more possession than Newport County, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it."}],"lambda_home":1.2626199082058647,"lambda_away":1.402613764621837,"corner_rate":10.23,"card_rate":0.147,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.855,"home":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":34180,"name":"Jordan Wright","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.857},{"id":8584,"name":"Matty Jacob","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.629},{"id":34193,"name":"Ciaran Brennan","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.877},{"id":34191,"name":"Lee Jenkins","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.865},{"id":33804,"name":"Cameron Norman","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.839},{"id":34150,"name":"Harrison Biggins","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.864},{"id":33649,"name":"Kyle Cameron","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.863},{"id":63280,"name":"Shaquille Gwengwe","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.715},{"id":33924,"name":"Matthew Max Dibley-Dias","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.625},{"id":46338,"name":"Michael Adu-Poku","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.476},{"id":43704,"name":"Christian Doidge","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.59},{"id":43720,"name":"Yahya Bamba","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.577},{"id":34181,"name":"Cameron Evans","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.46},{"id":34292,"name":"Joe Thomas","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.436},{"id":43325,"name":"Kieron Evans","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.334},{"id":34195,"name":"Thomas Davies","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.324},{"id":115598,"name":"Alfie Merritt","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.264},{"id":34294,"name":"Gerard Garner","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.256},{"id":31519,"name":"Tanatswa Nyakuhwa","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.248},{"id":34293,"name":"Matt Smith","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.236},{"id":42940,"name":"Dan Sassi","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.166},{"id":33624,"name":"Aaron Lewis","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.105},{"id":33978,"name":"Jake Turner","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.03}],"confidence":0.855},"away":{"formation":"3-4-2-1","players":[{"id":8464,"name":"Alfie McNally","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.853},{"id":46275,"name":"Mark Kitching","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.789},{"id":46272,"name":"Zak Johnson","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.645},{"id":46274,"name":"Morgan Williams","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.622},{"id":46277,"name":"Ryan Fallowfield","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.755},{"id":46262,"name":"Ollie Banks","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.868},{"id":46260,"name":"Alex Hunt","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.869},{"id":45591,"name":"Harry Boyes","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.823},{"id":46264,"name":"Alex Newby","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.705},{"id":46256,"name":"Ollie Pearce","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.841},{"id":46265,"name":"Joe Grey","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.734},{"id":46273,"name":"Joe Felix","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.553},{"id":42757,"name":"Jeff King","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.382},{"id":34031,"name":"Jovan Malcolm","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.301},{"id":34109,"name":"Arthur Read","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.294},{"id":33847,"name":"Zech Medley","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.257},{"id":29937,"name":"Jack Hunt","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.253},{"id":61330,"name":"Afolabi Akinyemi","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.228},{"id":63500,"name":"Charlie McArthur","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.197},{"id":46269,"name":"Craig Hewitt","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.168},{"id":63499,"name":"Frankie Maguire","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.163},{"id":46280,"name":"George Sykes-Kenworthy","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.05},{"id":43560,"name":"Ashley Palmer","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01}],"confidence":0.882},"unavailable":[]},"people":[{"id":34180,"name":"Jordan Wright","side":"home"},{"id":8584,"name":"Matty Jacob","side":"home"},{"id":34193,"name":"Ciaran Brennan","side":"home"},{"id":34191,"name":"Lee Jenkins","side":"home"},{"id":33804,"name":"Cameron Norman","side":"home"},{"id":34150,"name":"Harrison Biggins","side":"home"},{"id":33649,"name":"Kyle Cameron","side":"home"},{"id":63280,"name":"Shaquille Gwengwe","side":"home"},{"id":33924,"name":"Matthew Max Dibley-Dias","side":"home"},{"id":46338,"name":"Michael Adu-Poku","side":"home"},{"id":43704,"name":"Christian Doidge","side":"home"},{"id":43720,"name":"Yahya Bamba","side":"home"},{"id":34181,"name":"Cameron Evans","side":"home"},{"id":34292,"name":"Joe Thomas","side":"home"},{"id":43325,"name":"Kieron Evans","side":"home"},{"id":34195,"name":"Thomas Davies","side":"home"},{"id":115598,"name":"Alfie Merritt","side":"home"},{"id":34294,"name":"Gerard Garner","side":"home"},{"id":31519,"name":"Tanatswa Nyakuhwa","side":"home"},{"id":34293,"name":"Matt Smith","side":"home"},{"id":42940,"name":"Dan Sassi","side":"home"},{"id":33624,"name":"Aaron Lewis","side":"home"},{"id":33978,"name":"Jake Turner","side":"home"},{"id":8862,"name":"Kion Etete","side":"home"},{"id":34198,"name":"Moses Alexander-Walker","side":"home"},{"id":36729,"name":"James Crole","side":"home"},{"id":36739,"name":"Jordan Wright","side":"home"},{"id":36738,"name":"Shaun MacDonald","side":"home"},{"id":58882,"name":"Keenan Pattern","side":"home"},{"id":46499,"name":"Harrison Pugh","side":"home"},{"id":36731,"name":"Cole Jarvis","side":"home"},{"id":8464,"name":"Alfie McNally","side":"away"},{"id":46275,"name":"Mark Kitching","side":"away"},{"id":46272,"name":"Zak Johnson","side":"away"},{"id":46274,"name":"Morgan Williams","side":"away"},{"id":46277,"name":"Ryan Fallowfield","side":"away"},{"id":46262,"name":"Ollie Banks","side":"away"},{"id":46260,"name":"Alex Hunt","side":"away"},{"id":45591,"name":"Harry Boyes","side":"away"},{"id":46264,"name":"Alex Newby","side":"away"},{"id":46256,"name":"Ollie Pearce","side":"away"},{"id":46265,"name":"Joe Grey","side":"away"},{"id":46273,"name":"Joe Felix","side":"away"},{"id":42757,"name":"Jeff King","side":"away"},{"id":34031,"name":"Jovan Malcolm","side":"away"},{"id":34109,"name":"Arthur Read","side":"away"},{"id":33847,"name":"Zech Medley","side":"away"},{"id":29937,"name":"Jack Hunt","side":"away"},{"id":61330,"name":"Afolabi Akinyemi","side":"away"},{"id":63500,"name":"Charlie McArthur","side":"away"},{"id":46269,"name":"Craig Hewitt","side":"away"},{"id":63499,"name":"Frankie Maguire","side":"away"},{"id":46280,"name":"George Sykes-Kenworthy","side":"away"},{"id":43560,"name":"Ashley Palmer","side":"away"},{"id":46257,"name":"Josh Stones","side":"away"},{"id":46258,"name":"Ben Farrar","side":"away"},{"id":46261,"name":"Hiram Boateng","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":63280,"name":"Shaquille Gwengwe","side":"home","team":"Newport County","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"LW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":11,"starts":10,"goals":5,"assists":1,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":5,"team_games":18,"tracked_apps":11,"tracked_starts":10},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Tranmere Rovers","kickoff":1788012000,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.192,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":72,"country":0}},{"id":43704,"name":"Christian Doidge","side":"home","team":"Newport County","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":7,"goals":2,"assists":2,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":4,"team_games":18,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Grimsby Town","kickoff":1790431200,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.124,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":92,"country":0}},{"id":46264,"name":"Alex Newby","side":"away","team":"York City","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"LW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":7,"goals":6,"assists":1,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":3,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Swindon Town","kickoff":1789221600,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"4-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","best_performer"],"importance":0.238,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":90,"country":0}},{"id":46256,"name":"Ollie Pearce","side":"away","team":"York City","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":10,"goals":4,"assists":4,"big_chances":4,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":10},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":3,"assists":3,"scoredIn":2,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Swindon Town","kickoff":1789221600,"goals":1,"assists":1,"score":"4-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["in_form"],"importance":0.192,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":90,"country":0}}],"extras":null,"notable":[{"id":35382,"name":"Charlie McCann","goals":7,"rank":1},{"id":46264,"name":"Alex Newby","goals":6,"rank":2},{"id":37573,"name":"Charlie Lakin","goals":6,"rank":3},{"id":34019,"name":"Aaron Drinan","goals":5,"rank":4},{"id":37571,"name":"Aaron Pressley","goals":5,"rank":5},{"id":33677,"name":"Charlie Caton","goals":5,"rank":6},{"id":34246,"name":"Kabongo Tshimanga","goals":5,"rank":7},{"id":7106,"name":"Louie Marsh","goals":5,"rank":8},{"id":33549,"name":"Paul Mullin","goals":5,"rank":9},{"id":63280,"name":"Shaquille Gwengwe","goals":5,"rank":10},{"id":6232,"name":"Andreas Weimann","goals":4,"rank":11},{"id":46485,"name":"Calum Kavanagh","goals":4,"rank":12},{"id":33932,"name":"Lee Bonis","goals":4,"rank":13},{"id":46256,"name":"Ollie Pearce","goals":4,"rank":14},{"id":36113,"name":"Ronan Hale","goals":4,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 11","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":10,"home_wins":6,"draws":1,"away_wins":3,"home_goals":17,"away_goals":9,"avg_total_goals":2.6,"home_win_rate":0.6,"away_win_rate":0.3,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Newport County","date":"2016-01-16T15:00:00+00:00","home":"York City","score":"0-1","event_id":382321,"away_score":1,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":1429,"home_team_id":1892},{"away":"York City","date":"2015-09-05T12:00:00+00:00","home":"Newport County","score":"0-3","event_id":382043,"away_score":3,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":1892,"home_team_id":1429},{"away":"Newport County","date":"2015-04-25T14:00:00+00:00","home":"York City","score":"0-2","event_id":397617,"away_score":2,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":1429,"home_team_id":1892},{"away":"York City","date":"2014-10-11T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Newport County","score":"3-1","event_id":397212,"away_score":1,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":1892,"home_team_id":1429},{"away":"Newport County","date":"2014-04-26T14:00:00+00:00","home":"York City","score":"1-0","event_id":413012,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1429,"home_team_id":1892},{"away":"York City","date":"2013-10-19T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Newport County","score":"3-0","event_id":412583,"away_score":0,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":1892,"home_team_id":1429},{"away":"Newport County","date":"2012-04-14T14:00:00+00:00","home":"York City","score":"1-1","event_id":597699,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1429,"home_team_id":1892},{"away":"York City","date":"2012-04-03T18:45:00+00:00","home":"Newport County","score":"2-1","event_id":597601,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":1892,"home_team_id":1429},{"away":"Newport County","date":"2011-04-09T14:00:00+00:00","home":"York City","score":"2-1","event_id":598300,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":1429,"home_team_id":1892},{"away":"York City","date":"2010-10-09T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Newport County","score":"4-0","event_id":597903,"away_score":0,"home_score":4,"away_team_id":1892,"home_team_id":1429}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":1429,"position":12,"played":10,"points":13,"goal_diff":1,"team_name":"Newport County","won":3,"drawn":4,"lost":3,"goals_for":13,"goals_against":12,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":1892,"position":5,"played":9,"points":15,"goal_diff":6,"team_name":"York City","won":4,"drawn":3,"lost":2,"goals_for":17,"goals_against":11,"group":null},"size":24},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.5,"record":"2-3-1","goals_for":0.67,"goals_against":0.5,"clean_sheets":3,"streak":"unbeaten 5","sequence":"LDDWDW","venue_ppg":2.33},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.33,"record":"2-2-2","goals_for":1.83,"goals_against":1.17,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"none","sequence":"LDWLWD","venue_ppg":0.33}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Newport County report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.away.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"York City report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.855,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.145,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":35,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":12,"points":13,"games_left":35,"gap_to_leader":6,"gap_to_safety":5,"gap_to_europe":2},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":5,"points":15,"games_left":35,"gap_to_leader":4,"gap_to_safety":7,"gap_to_europe":0},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Hayden Mullins is 15 games into the job at Newport County, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Hayden Mullins","matches_in_charge":15,"tenure_days":89,"ppm":1.2,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":0.9,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Scott Lindsey is 11 games into the job at York City, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Scott Lindsey","matches_in_charge":11,"tenure_days":82,"ppm":1.36,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2,"after_ppm":1.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Newport County come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"York City come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.064,"defence":-0.077,"effective_matches":16.6,"shrunk":0.33},"away":{"attack":0.212,"defence":0.015,"effective_matches":7.2,"shrunk":0.53}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"York City average 25 points more possession than Newport County, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":37.6,"shots":10.6,"xg_per_shot":0.107,"corners":4.2,"corners_per_shot":0.394,"finishing_vs_xg":0.11},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":62.2,"shots":15.9,"xg_per_shot":0.118,"corners":5.7,"corners_per_shot":0.356,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.2},"possession_gap":-24.6},"strength":0.6,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":5.2},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-5.2}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Newport County are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.11,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"York City are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.2,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.2628956581444839},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5099,"created_at":"2026-10-11T02:15:31Z","event":{"id":224672,"event_date":"2026-10-17T14:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1429,"home_team":"Newport County","away_team_id":1892,"away_team":"York City","league_id":87,"league_name":"League Two"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":48.2,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4824,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792037690,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#efa13c","away":"#1b387c"},"venue":{"name":"Rodney Parade","city":"Newport","capacity":7850},"pulled":[],"published":[]}