{"id":224670,"league_id":87,"league":"League Two","kickoff":1792245600,"home":"Crewe Alexandra","away":"Rochdale","home_id":1448,"away_id":3702,"venue_id":898,"rank":5,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.527,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.4,0.87],"read":{"text":"Crewe Alexandra to edge it","side":"home"},"pass":"Nothing to take on Crewe Alexandra against Rochdale. The likely outcome is priced too short to be worth taking, and nothing else is sure enough to call.","flags":[],"lambda_home":1.3969194994829899,"lambda_away":0.8673754716701665,"corner_rate":9.61,"card_rate":0.207,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.727,"home":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":34234,"name":"Tom Booth","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.871},{"id":46470,"name":"Reece Hutchinson","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.516},{"id":13723,"name":"Joshua Stephenson","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.825},{"id":28497,"name":"Luke Offord","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.819},{"id":34229,"name":"Lewis Billington","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.803},{"id":34046,"name":"Joe White","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.562},{"id":62788,"name":"Joel Tabiner","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.54},{"id":27341,"name":"Jordan Gibson","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.58},{"id":62785,"name":"Jack Lankester","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.617},{"id":34227,"name":"Adrien Thibaut","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.415},{"id":34236,"name":"Josh March","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.791},{"id":46471,"name":"Matúš Holíček","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.675},{"id":66914,"name":"Kyle Ure","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.491},{"id":34230,"name":"Calum Agius","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.474},{"id":46468,"name":"Mickey Demetriou","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.382},{"id":6170,"name":"Charlie McNeill","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.355},{"id":34226,"name":"Owen Lunt","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.348},{"id":205732,"name":"Joel Ewusi","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.272},{"id":34219,"name":"Stan Dancey","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.27},{"id":73733,"name":"Patrick Mlynarski","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.261},{"id":34224,"name":"Luca Moore","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.222},{"id":46469,"name":"Conor Thomas","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.167},{"id":33509,"name":"Ian Lawlor","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.04}],"confidence":0.795},"away":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":22867,"name":"Nils Ramming","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.809},{"id":36796,"name":"Kane Taylor","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.665},{"id":114232,"name":"Kaiden Wilson","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.796},{"id":33913,"name":"Aden Flint","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.585},{"id":62568,"name":"Daniel Moss","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.645},{"id":29922,"name":"Babajide Adeeko","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.744},{"id":33861,"name":"Edward Francis","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.474},{"id":27339,"name":"Glenn Middleton","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.505},{"id":62567,"name":"Harvey Gilmour","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.735},{"id":28867,"name":"Cian Hayes","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.266},{"id":7144,"name":"Dajaune Brown","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.844},{"id":8491,"name":"Charlie Tasker","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.633},{"id":62565,"name":"Tobi Adebayo-Rowling","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.536},{"id":62556,"name":"Emmanuel Dieseruvwe","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.519},{"id":34260,"name":"Luke Hanannt","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.449},{"id":35734,"name":"Sam Sherring","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.447},{"id":62566,"name":"Ryan East","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.426},{"id":62572,"name":"Ethan Ebanks-Landell","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.417},{"id":21318,"name":"Zain Silcott-Duberry","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.361},{"id":34218,"name":"Sam Waller","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.313},{"id":33723,"name":"Jonny Smith","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.306},{"id":62558,"name":"Devante Rodney","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.223},{"id":28493,"name":"Laurence Maguire","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.216}],"confidence":0.727},"unavailable":[]},"people":[{"id":34234,"name":"Tom Booth","side":"home"},{"id":46470,"name":"Reece Hutchinson","side":"home"},{"id":13723,"name":"Joshua Stephenson","side":"home"},{"id":28497,"name":"Luke Offord","side":"home"},{"id":34229,"name":"Lewis Billington","side":"home"},{"id":34046,"name":"Joe White","side":"home"},{"id":62788,"name":"Joel Tabiner","side":"home"},{"id":27341,"name":"Jordan Gibson","side":"home"},{"id":62785,"name":"Jack Lankester","side":"home"},{"id":34227,"name":"Adrien Thibaut","side":"home"},{"id":34236,"name":"Josh March","side":"home"},{"id":46471,"name":"Matúš Holíček","side":"home"},{"id":66914,"name":"Kyle Ure","side":"home"},{"id":34230,"name":"Calum Agius","side":"home"},{"id":46468,"name":"Mickey Demetriou","side":"home"},{"id":6170,"name":"Charlie McNeill","side":"home"},{"id":34226,"name":"Owen Lunt","side":"home"},{"id":205732,"name":"Joel Ewusi","side":"home"},{"id":34219,"name":"Stan Dancey","side":"home"},{"id":73733,"name":"Patrick Mlynarski","side":"home"},{"id":34224,"name":"Luca Moore","side":"home"},{"id":46469,"name":"Conor Thomas","side":"home"},{"id":33509,"name":"Ian Lawlor","side":"home"},{"id":217358,"name":"Finn Robert","side":"home"},{"id":208779,"name":"Josh Stephenson","side":"home"},{"id":62787,"name":"Finley Roberts","side":"home"},{"id":62789,"name":"Matus Holicek","side":"home"},{"id":62790,"name":"Owen Alan Lunt","side":"home"},{"id":34231,"name":"Oliver Armstrong","side":"home"},{"id":205733,"name":"Noah Bell","side":"home"},{"id":22867,"name":"Nils Ramming","side":"away"},{"id":36796,"name":"Kane Taylor","side":"away"},{"id":114232,"name":"Kaiden Wilson","side":"away"},{"id":33913,"name":"Aden Flint","side":"away"},{"id":62568,"name":"Daniel Moss","side":"away"},{"id":29922,"name":"Babajide Adeeko","side":"away"},{"id":33861,"name":"Edward Francis","side":"away"},{"id":27339,"name":"Glenn Middleton","side":"away"},{"id":62567,"name":"Harvey Gilmour","side":"away"},{"id":28867,"name":"Cian Hayes","side":"away"},{"id":7144,"name":"Dajaune Brown","side":"away"},{"id":8491,"name":"Charlie Tasker","side":"away"},{"id":62565,"name":"Tobi Adebayo-Rowling","side":"away"},{"id":62556,"name":"Emmanuel Dieseruvwe","side":"away"},{"id":34260,"name":"Luke Hanannt","side":"away"},{"id":35734,"name":"Sam Sherring","side":"away"},{"id":62566,"name":"Ryan East","side":"away"},{"id":62572,"name":"Ethan Ebanks-Landell","side":"away"},{"id":21318,"name":"Zain Silcott-Duberry","side":"away"},{"id":34218,"name":"Sam Waller","side":"away"},{"id":33723,"name":"Jonny Smith","side":"away"},{"id":62558,"name":"Devante Rodney","side":"away"},{"id":28493,"name":"Laurence Maguire","side":"away"},{"id":216811,"name":"Leonard Reece","side":"away"},{"id":34069,"name":"Bryant Akono Bilongo","side":"away"},{"id":62573,"name":"Sam Beckwith","side":"away"},{"id":216810,"name":"Bradley Thomas","side":"away"},{"id":217496,"name":"Lewis Platt","side":"away"},{"id":62557,"name":"Ian Henderson","side":"away"},{"id":90346,"name":"Jake Spaven","side":"away"},{"id":62562,"name":"Casey Pettit","side":"away"},{"id":209522,"name":"Jon Smith","side":"away"},{"id":45611,"name":"Will Jenkins","side":"away"},{"id":217495,"name":"Fabian Nowacki","side":"away"},{"id":217493,"name":"Lucas Cunliffe","side":"away"},{"id":217492,"name":"Ronnie Brown","side":"away"},{"id":217494,"name":"Lewis Platt","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":27341,"name":"Jordan Gibson","side":"home","team":"Crewe Alexandra","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"LW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":12,"starts":7,"goals":3,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":4,"team_games":17,"tracked_apps":12,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":3,"assists":0,"scoredIn":2,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Swindon Town","kickoff":1791631800,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.129,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":123,"country":0}},{"id":34236,"name":"Josh March","side":"home","team":"Crewe Alexandra","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":11,"starts":11,"goals":3,"assists":2,"big_chances":3,"clean_sheets":4,"team_games":17,"tracked_apps":11,"tracked_starts":11},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":2,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Walsall","kickoff":1788288300,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.194,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":180,"country":0}},{"id":34227,"name":"Adrien Thibaut","side":"home","team":"Crewe Alexandra","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":11,"starts":3,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":17,"tracked_apps":11,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Barnsley","kickoff":1787683500,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-3","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.037,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":140,"country":0}},{"id":7144,"name":"Dajaune Brown","side":"away","team":"Rochdale","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":11,"starts":10,"goals":3,"assists":2,"big_chances":3,"clean_sheets":4,"team_games":17,"tracked_apps":11,"tracked_starts":10},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":3,"assists":1,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Fleetwood Town","kickoff":1790431200,"goals":1,"assists":1,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","in_form"],"importance":0.187,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":180,"country":0}}],"extras":null,"notable":[{"id":35382,"name":"Charlie McCann","goals":7,"rank":1},{"id":46264,"name":"Alex Newby","goals":6,"rank":2},{"id":37573,"name":"Charlie Lakin","goals":6,"rank":3},{"id":34019,"name":"Aaron Drinan","goals":5,"rank":4},{"id":37571,"name":"Aaron Pressley","goals":5,"rank":5},{"id":33677,"name":"Charlie Caton","goals":5,"rank":6},{"id":34246,"name":"Kabongo Tshimanga","goals":5,"rank":7},{"id":7106,"name":"Louie Marsh","goals":5,"rank":8},{"id":33549,"name":"Paul Mullin","goals":5,"rank":9},{"id":63280,"name":"Shaquille Gwengwe","goals":5,"rank":10},{"id":6232,"name":"Andreas Weimann","goals":4,"rank":11},{"id":46485,"name":"Calum Kavanagh","goals":4,"rank":12},{"id":33932,"name":"Lee Bonis","goals":4,"rank":13},{"id":46256,"name":"Ollie Pearce","goals":4,"rank":14},{"id":36113,"name":"Ronan Hale","goals":4,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 11","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":10,"home_wins":2,"draws":5,"away_wins":3,"home_goals":15,"away_goals":21,"avg_total_goals":3.6,"home_win_rate":0.2,"away_win_rate":0.3,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Rochdale","date":"2023-02-25T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Crewe Alexandra","score":"1-1","event_id":255967,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":3702,"home_team_id":1448},{"away":"Crewe Alexandra","date":"2022-07-30T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Rochdale","score":"1-2","event_id":255527,"away_score":2,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1448,"home_team_id":3702},{"away":"Rochdale","date":"2021-04-24T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Crewe Alexandra","score":"1-1","event_id":280426,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":3702,"home_team_id":1448},{"away":"Crewe Alexandra","date":"2021-01-09T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Rochdale","score":"3-3","event_id":280122,"away_score":3,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":1448,"home_team_id":3702},{"away":"Crewe Alexandra","date":"2016-02-16T19:45:00+00:00","home":"Rochdale","score":"2-2","event_id":381683,"away_score":2,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":1448,"home_team_id":3702},{"away":"Rochdale","date":"2016-02-06T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Crewe Alexandra","score":"2-0","event_id":381768,"away_score":0,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":3702,"home_team_id":1448},{"away":"Crewe Alexandra","date":"2015-03-03T19:45:00+00:00","home":"Rochdale","score":"4-0","event_id":396919,"away_score":0,"home_score":4,"away_team_id":1448,"home_team_id":3702},{"away":"Rochdale","date":"2014-08-19T18:45:00+00:00","home":"Crewe Alexandra","score":"2-5","event_id":396519,"away_score":5,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":3702,"home_team_id":1448},{"away":"Crewe Alexandra","date":"2010-02-06T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Rochdale","score":"2-0","event_id":467650,"away_score":0,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":1448,"home_team_id":3702},{"away":"Rochdale","date":"2009-12-26T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Crewe Alexandra","score":"2-2","event_id":467524,"away_score":2,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":3702,"home_team_id":1448}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":1448,"position":3,"played":10,"points":18,"goal_diff":5,"team_name":"Crewe Alexandra","won":4,"drawn":6,"lost":0,"goals_for":12,"goals_against":7,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":3702,"position":10,"played":10,"points":14,"goal_diff":-1,"team_name":"Rochdale","won":4,"drawn":2,"lost":4,"goals_for":11,"goals_against":12,"group":null},"size":24},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.67,"record":"2-4-0","goals_for":1.33,"goals_against":0.83,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"unbeaten 6","sequence":"DDDDWW","venue_ppg":1.67},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.83,"record":"3-2-1","goals_for":1.17,"goals_against":1,"clean_sheets":3,"streak":"unbeaten 5","sequence":"LDWWWD","venue_ppg":1.67}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Crewe Alexandra report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.away.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Rochdale report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.727,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.273,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":35,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":3,"points":18,"games_left":35,"gap_to_leader":1,"gap_to_safety":10,"gap_to_europe":-3},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":10,"points":14,"games_left":35,"gap_to_leader":5,"gap_to_safety":6,"gap_to_europe":1},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lee Bell has 48 matches in charge at Crewe Alexandra, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Lee Bell","matches_in_charge":48,"tenure_days":432,"ppm":1.44,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1,"after_ppm":1.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Ian Watson is 12 games into the job at Rochdale, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Ian Watson","matches_in_charge":12,"tenure_days":78,"ppm":1.25,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.4,"after_ppm":1.1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Crewe Alexandra come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.104166666666667,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Rochdale come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.01,"defence":0.086,"effective_matches":16.5,"shrunk":0.33},"away":{"attack":-0.105,"defence":-0.032,"effective_matches":8.1,"shrunk":0.5}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":47.6,"shots":12.5,"xg_per_shot":0.113,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.38,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.08},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":54.8,"shots":8.7,"xg_per_shot":0.109,"corners":4.1,"corners_per_shot":0.471,"finishing_vs_xg":0.14},"possession_gap":-7.2},"strength":0.287,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Crewe Alexandra are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.08,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Rochdale are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.14,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.2628956581444839},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5109,"created_at":"2026-10-11T02:15:31Z","event":{"id":224670,"event_date":"2026-10-17T14:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1448,"home_team":"Crewe Alexandra","away_team_id":3702,"away_team":"Rochdale","league_id":87,"league_name":"League Two"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":49.9,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4993,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792037694,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#22335e","away":"#0c5492"},"venue":{"name":"Alexandra Stadium","city":"Crewe","capacity":10153},"pulled":[],"published":[]}