{"id": 224651, "h2h": {"draws": 6, "away_wins": 5, "home_wins": 4, "away_goals": 31, "home_goals": 28, "away_win_rate": 0.3333333333333333, "home_win_rate": 0.26666666666666666, "total_matches": 15, "recent_matches": [{"away": "Swindon Town", "date": "2023-03-18T15:00:00+00:00", "home": "Rochdale", "score": "4-4", "event_id": 256008, "away_score": 4, "home_score": 4, "away_team_id": 1440, "home_team_id": 3702}, {"away": "Rochdale", "date": "2022-08-20T14:00:00+00:00", "home": "Swindon Town", "score": "3-0", "event_id": 255580, "away_score": 0, "home_score": 3, "away_team_id": 3702, "home_team_id": 1440}, {"away": "Swindon Town", "date": "2022-04-02T14:00:00+00:00", "home": "Rochdale", "score": "0-0", "event_id": 269105, "away_score": 0, "home_score": 0, "away_team_id": 1440, "home_team_id": 3702}, {"away": "Rochdale", "date": "2021-10-16T14:00:00+00:00", "home": "Swindon Town", "score": "2-2", "event_id": 268728, "away_score": 2, "home_score": 2, "away_team_id": 3702, "home_team_id": 1440}, {"away": "Swindon Town", "date": "2021-04-13T18:00:00+00:00", "home": "Rochdale", "score": "2-1", "event_id": 280358, "away_score": 1, "home_score": 2, "away_team_id": 1440, "home_team_id": 3702}, {"away": "Rochdale", "date": "2020-09-12T14:00:00+00:00", "home": "Swindon Town", "score": "3-1", "event_id": 279853, "away_score": 1, "home_score": 3, "away_team_id": 3702, "home_team_id": 1440}, {"away": "Swindon Town", "date": "2016-11-19T15:00:00+00:00", "home": "Rochdale", "score": "4-0", "event_id": 362506, "away_score": 0, "home_score": 4, "away_team_id": 1440, "home_team_id": 3702}, {"away": "Rochdale", "date": "2016-10-18T18:45:00+00:00", "home": "Swindon Town", "score": "3-0", "event_id": 362462, "away_score": 0, "home_score": 3, "away_team_id": 3702, "home_team_id": 1440}, {"away": "Swindon Town", "date": "2016-04-30T14:00:00+00:00", "home": "Rochdale", "score": "2-2", "event_id": 381960, "away_score": 2, "home_score": 2, "away_team_id": 1440, "home_team_id": 3702}, {"away": "Rochdale", "date": "2015-12-12T15:00:00+00:00", "home": "Swindon Town", "score": "2-1", "event_id": 381651, "away_score": 1, "home_score": 2, "away_team_id": 3702, "home_team_id": 1440}], "avg_total_goals": 3.933333333333333}, "away": "Swindon Town", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 1.17, "record": "2-1-3", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "LWWLLD", "goals_for": 1.17, "venue_ppg": 0, "clean_sheets": 0, "goals_against": 1.83}, "home": {"ppg": 1.67, "record": "3-1-2", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "LWLDWW", "goals_for": 1.33, "venue_ppg": 2, "clean_sheets": 3, "goals_against": 1}}, "home": "Rochdale", "pass": "Nothing to take on Rochdale against Swindon Town. The bookmakers have this one about right, so there is nothing to take.", "rank": 5, "read": {"side": null, "text": "Too close to call"}, "flags": [], "score": null, "venue": null, "colors": {"away": "#dc1419", "home": "#0c5492"}, "extras": {"split": {"away": {"above": {"d": 0, "l": 2, "w": 1}, "below": {"d": 2, "l": 1, "w": 2}}, "home": {"above": {"d": 1, "l": 2, "w": 1}, "below": {"d": 0, "l": 2, "w": 2}}}, "teams": {"away": 1440, "home": 3702}, "best_xi": [], "players": {"7144": {"caps": 1, "goals": 0, "signed": null, "country": "Jamaica"}}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 888, "vs": null, "name": "Ian Holloway"}, "home": {"id": 1237, "vs": null, "name": "Ian Watson"}}}, "lambda": [1.4, 1.14], "league": "League Two", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "Rochdale report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "Swindon Town report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0.65, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 0.35}, {"id": "stakes.season", "note": "Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {"away": {"state": "mid_table", "points": 11, "position": 12, "games_left": 37, "gap_to_europe": 2, "gap_to_leader": 4, "gap_to_safety": 5}, "home": {"state": "mid_table", "points": 10, "position": 16, "games_left": 37, "gap_to_europe": 3, "gap_to_leader": 5, "gap_to_safety": 4}, "games_left": 37, "six_pointer": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "THIN", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.settling", "note": "Ian Watson is 10 games into the job at Rochdale, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.1, "manager": "Ian Watson", "tenure_days": 64, "matches_in_charge": 10, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 1.1, "before_ppm": 1.4}}, "strength": 0.3}, {"id": "manager.away.established", "note": "Ian Holloway has 41 matches in charge at Swindon Town, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.34, "manager": "Ian Holloway", "tenure_days": 418, "matches_in_charge": 41, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 2.1, "before_ppm": 1.7}}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Rochdale come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 7, "days_rest": 7, "matchesIn7": 1, "matchesIn14": 1}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Swindon Town come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 7, "days_rest": 7, "matchesIn7": 1, "matchesIn14": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": 0.003, "shrunk": 0.33, "defence": -0.099, "effective_matches": 16}, "home": {"attack": -0.098, "shrunk": 0.54, "defence": -0.075, "effective_matches": 6.8}}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Rochdale average 12 points more possession than Swindon Town, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.", "tier": 5, "moves": [{"pct": 2.4, "side": "home", "channel": "corners"}, {"pct": -2.4, "side": "away", "channel": "corners"}], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away": {"shots": 9.2, "corners": 3.9, "matches": 12, "possession": 44.1, "xg_per_shot": 0.119, "finishing_vs_xg": 0.4, "corners_per_shot": 0.425}, "home": {"shots": 8.2, "corners": 3.8, "matches": 12, "possession": 55.7, "xg_per_shot": 0.108, "finishing_vs_xg": 0.36, "corners_per_shot": 0.457}, "possession_gap": 11.6}, "strength": 0.463}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "Rochdale have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0.36}, "strength": 0.25}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "Swindon Town have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": 0.4}, "strength": 0.25}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "No weather reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": 0.279120165276174}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 22867, "name": "Nils Ramming", "side": "home"}, {"id": 36796, "name": "Kane Taylor", "side": "home"}, {"id": 114232, "name": "Kaiden Wilson", "side": "home"}, {"id": 62572, "name": "Ethan Ebanks-Landell", "side": "home"}, {"id": 62568, "name": "Daniel Moss", "side": "home"}, {"id": 62567, "name": "Harvey Gilmour", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33861, "name": "Edward Francis", "side": "home"}, {"id": 27339, "name": "Glenn Middleton", "side": "home"}, {"id": 29922, "name": "Babajide Adeeko", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33723, "name": "Jonny Smith", "side": "home"}, {"id": 7144, "name": "Dajaune Brown", "side": "home"}, {"id": 62556, "name": "Emmanuel Dieseruvwe", "side": "home"}, {"id": 62565, "name": "Tobi Adebayo-Rowling", "side": "home"}, {"id": 34260, 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"side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Swindon Town", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 5, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "country": 0, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": {"apps": 6, "goals": 1, "starts": 3, "assists": 0, "team_games": 15, "big_chances": 1, "clean_sheets": 1, "tracked_apps": 6, "tracked_starts": 3}, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "ST", "standout": {"won": false, "goals": 1, "score": "2-3", "assists": 0, "kickoff": 1786197600, "opponent": "Cardiff City"}, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.044, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4137, "event": {"id": 224651, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Swindon Town", "home_team": "Rochdale", "league_id": 87, "event_date": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "league_name": "League Two", "away_team_id": 1440, "home_team_id": 3702}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.3845}, "created_at": "2026-09-27T02:15:30Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "H", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 38.5}}}, "venue_id": null, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.21, "league_id": 87, "published": [], "standings": {"away": {"won": 3, "lost": 3, "drawn": 2, "group": null, "played": 8, "points": 11, "team_id": 1440, "position": 12, "goal_diff": -3, "goals_for": 9, "team_name": "Swindon Town", "goals_against": 12}, "home": {"won": 3, "lost": 4, "drawn": 1, "group": null, "played": 8, "points": 10, "team_id": 3702, "position": 16, "goal_diff": -2, "goals_for": 9, "team_name": "Rochdale", "goals_against": 11}, "size": 24}, "confidence": 0.527, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871831, "corner_rate": 10.98, "lambda_away": 1.1426504575222298, "lambda_home": 1.3977830338632589, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was over 11.5 corners at 2.98, where the edge of 7.3 points does not clear the 8.4 needed against a 9.9% margin.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "Regular season · Matchday 9", "lineup_status": "predicted"}