{"id": 224649, "h2h": {"draws": 4, "away_wins": 1, "home_wins": 4, "away_goals": 4, "home_goals": 10, "away_win_rate": 0.1111111111111111, "home_win_rate": 0.4444444444444444, "total_matches": 9, "recent_matches": [{"away": "Shrewsbury Town", "date": "2025-12-29T19:45:00+00:00", "home": "Grimsby Town", "score": "1-0", "event_id": 228147, "away_score": 0, "home_score": 1, "away_team_id": 1430, "home_team_id": 1418}, {"away": "Grimsby Town", "date": "2025-12-09T19:45:00+00:00", "home": "Shrewsbury Town", "score": "1-1", "event_id": 228100, "away_score": 1, "home_score": 1, "away_team_id": 1418, "home_team_id": 1430}, {"away": "Shrewsbury Town", "date": "2025-08-12T18:45:00+00:00", "home": "Grimsby Town", "score": "3-1", "event_id": 203286, "away_score": 1, "home_score": 3, "away_team_id": 1430, "home_team_id": 1418}, {"away": "Grimsby Town", "date": "2015-12-15T19:45:00+00:00", "home": "Shrewsbury Town", "score": "1-0", "event_id": 376737, "away_score": 0, "home_score": 1, "away_team_id": 1418, "home_team_id": 1430}, {"away": "Shrewsbury Town", "date": "2015-12-07T19:45:00+00:00", "home": "Grimsby Town", "score": "0-0", "event_id": 376735, "away_score": 0, "home_score": 0, "away_team_id": 1430, "home_team_id": 1418}, {"away": "Shrewsbury Town", "date": "2010-03-06T15:00:00+00:00", "home": "Grimsby Town", "score": "3-0", "event_id": 467708, "away_score": 0, "home_score": 3, "away_team_id": 1430, "home_team_id": 1418}, {"away": "Grimsby Town", "date": "2009-12-12T15:00:00+00:00", "home": "Shrewsbury Town", "score": "0-0", "event_id": 467493, "away_score": 0, "home_score": 0, "away_team_id": 1418, "home_team_id": 1430}, {"away": "Grimsby Town", "date": "2009-04-04T14:00:00+00:00", "home": "Shrewsbury Town", "score": "1-1", "event_id": 478954, "away_score": 1, "home_score": 1, "away_team_id": 1418, "home_team_id": 1430}, {"away": "Shrewsbury Town", "date": "2008-12-13T15:00:00+00:00", "home": "Grimsby Town", "score": "1-0", "event_id": 478659, "away_score": 0, "home_score": 1, "away_team_id": 1430, "home_team_id": 1418}], "avg_total_goals": 1.5555555555555556}, "away": "Shrewsbury Town", "form": {"away": {"ppg": 1.33, "record": "2-2-2", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "WLLWDD", "goals_for": 1, "venue_ppg": 0.33, "clean_sheets": 2, "goals_against": 1.33}, "home": {"ppg": 1.5, "record": "2-3-1", "streak": "none", "matches": 6, "sequence": "DDDWWL", "goals_for": 1.83, "venue_ppg": 2.33, "clean_sheets": 2, "goals_against": 1.33}}, "home": "Grimsby Town", "pass": "Passing on Grimsby Town v Shrewsbury Town. The bookmakers have this one about right, so there is nothing to take.", "rank": 5, "read": {"side": "home", "text": "Grimsby Town to edge it"}, "flags": [], "score": null, "venue": {"city": "Cleethorpes", "name": "Blundell Park", "capacity": 9052}, "colors": {"away": "#0d4c9e", "home": null}, "extras": {"split": {"away": {"above": {"d": 2, "l": 4, "w": 1}, "below": {"d": 0, "l": 0, "w": 1}}, "home": {"above": {"d": 2, "l": 0, "w": 1}, "below": {"d": 2, "l": 1, "w": 2}}}, "teams": {"away": 1430, "home": 1418}, "best_xi": [], "players": {}, "referee": null, "managers": {"away": {"id": 876, "vs": {"d": 0, "l": 1, "w": 0, "last": {"score": "1-3", "result": "L", "kickoff": 1755024300}}, "name": "Gavin Cowan"}, "home": {"id": 862, "vs": {"d": 0, "l": 0, "w": 1, "last": {"score": "3-1", "result": "W", "kickoff": 1755024300}}, "name": "David Artell"}}}, "lambda": [1.76, 0.83], "league": "League Two", "ledger": [{"id": "availability.home.full_strength", "note": "Grimsby Town report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.away.full_strength", "note": "Shrewsbury Town report no absentees.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.4", "evidence": {"absences": 0}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "availability.rotation_risk", "note": "Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.", "tier": 1, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§3.1", "evidence": {"cup_tie": false, "confidence": 0.755, "lineup_status": "predicted"}, "strength": 0.245}, {"id": "stakes.season", "note": "Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.1", "evidence": {"away": {"state": "mid_table", "points": 8, "position": 18, "games_left": 37, "gap_to_europe": 5, "gap_to_leader": 7, "gap_to_safety": 2}, "home": {"state": "mid_table", "points": 13, "position": 6, "games_left": 37, "gap_to_europe": 0, "gap_to_leader": 2, "gap_to_safety": 7}, "games_left": 37, "six_pointer": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.derby", "note": "Not a local derby.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.2", "evidence": {"derby": false}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fixture.revenge", "note": "The reverse fixture finished 1-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.", "tier": 2, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§5.3", "evidence": {"reverse_margin": 0}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "manager.home.established", "note": "David Artell has 45 matches in charge at Grimsby Town, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.76, "manager": "David Artell", "tenure_days": 341, "matches_in_charge": 45, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 0.9, "before_ppm": 1.6}}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "manager.away.established", "note": "Gavin Cowan has 40 matches in charge at Shrewsbury Town, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.", "tier": 3, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§1.1", "evidence": {"ppm": 1.25, "manager": "Gavin Cowan", "tenure_days": 418, "matches_in_charge": 40, "appointment_effect": {"delta": null, "after_ppm": 0.5, "before_ppm": 0.6}}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.home", "note": "Grimsby Town come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 7, "days_rest": 7, "matchesIn7": 1, "matchesIn14": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "fatigue.away", "note": "Shrewsbury Town come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.", "tier": 4, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.8", "evidence": {"daysRest": 7, "days_rest": 7, "matchesIn7": 1, "matchesIn14": 2}, "strength": 0.1}, {"id": "style.opponent_adjustment", "note": "Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§4.1", "evidence": {"away": {"attack": -0.152, "shrunk": 0.34, "defence": -0.049, "effective_matches": 15.2}, "home": {"attack": 0.185, "shrunk": 0.32, "defence": 0.084, "effective_matches": 17}}, "strength": 0.2}, {"id": "style.matchup", "note": "Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"away": {"shots": 13.2, "corners": 5.4, "matches": 12, "possession": 44.7, "xg_per_shot": 0.093, "finishing_vs_xg": -0.4, "corners_per_shot": 0.41}, "home": {"shots": 14.8, "corners": 6.4, "matches": 12, "possession": 52.5, "xg_per_shot": 0.127, "finishing_vs_xg": -0.46, "corners_per_shot": 0.431}, "possession_gap": 7.9}, "strength": 0.315}, {"id": "style.press_matchup", "note": "Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§4.2", "evidence": {"requires": ["ppda", "defensive_line_height"]}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "style.finishing.home", "note": "Grimsby Town have scored 5 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": -0.46}, "strength": 0.25}, {"id": "style.finishing.away", "note": "Shrewsbury Town have scored 5 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "COMPUTED", "section": "§2.1", "evidence": {"matches": 12, "goals_minus_xg_per_match": -0.4}, "strength": 0.25}, {"id": "referee.tendency", "note": "No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.", "tier": 5, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§13", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "fatigue.travel", "note": "No travel distance reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.4", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.weather", "note": "No weather reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.2", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.pitch", "note": "No pitch condition reported for this fixture.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.3", "evidence": {}, "strength": 0}, {"id": "environment.venue", "note": "Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.", "tier": 6, "moves": [], "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "section": "§6.1", "evidence": {"home_adv": 0.279120165276174}, "strength": 0}], "locked": false, "people": [{"id": 33121, "name": "Christy Pym", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33125, "name": "Jayden Sweeney", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33124, "name": "Cameron McJannett", "side": "home"}, {"id": 36186, "name": "Maldini Kacurri", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33122, "name": "Harvey Rodgers", "side": "home"}, {"id": 17077, "name": "Géza Dávid Turi", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33130, "name": "Charles Vernam", "side": "home"}, {"id": 88478, "name": "Cian Doyle", "side": "home"}, {"id": 34279, "name": "Mark Shelton", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33128, "name": "Kieran Green", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33524, "name": "Andy Cook", "side": "home"}, {"id": 37276, "name": "Iwan Morgan", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33138, "name": "Justin Amaluzor", "side": "home"}, {"id": 7171, "name": "Sonny Finch", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33134, "name": "Jamie Walker", "side": "home"}, {"id": 58884, "name": "Ryley Reynolds", "side": "home"}, {"id": 26775, "name": "David Harrington", "side": "home"}, {"id": 42787, "name": "Edon Pruti", "side": "home"}, {"id": 6862, "name": "Finlay Cartwright", "side": "home"}, {"id": 64052, "name": "Joe Foulkes", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33137, "name": "Reece Staunton", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33606, "name": "Sebastian Auton", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33990, "name": "Josh Andrews", "side": "home"}, {"id": 36187, "name": "Jayden Sweeney", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33123, "name": "Samuel Lavelle", "side": "home"}, {"id": 34131, "name": "Doug Tharme", "side": "home"}, {"id": 209075, "name": "Alex Graham", "side": "home"}, {"id": 87448, "name": "Elliot Smith", "side": "home"}, {"id": 65413, "name": "Harvey Cartwright", "side": "home"}, {"id": 33605, "name": "Cameron Gardner", "side": "home"}, {"id": 37285, "name": "Will Brook", "side": "away"}, {"id": 37283, "name": "Josh 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"starting": false}, {"id": 34148, "name": "Isaac England", "ai_score": 0.226, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 37280, "name": "Isaac  Lee", "ai_score": 0.182, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 37153, "name": "Lino Sousa", "ai_score": 0.142, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 42718, "name": "Byron Pendleton", "ai_score": 0.129, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 42708, "name": "Jack Price", "ai_score": 0.118, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 4421, "name": "Sam Proctor", "ai_score": 0.04, "position": "G", "starting": false}], "formation": "3-4-1-2", "confidence": 0.85}, "home": {"players": [{"id": 33121, "name": "Christy Pym", "ai_score": 0.613, "position": "G", "starting": true}, {"id": 33125, "name": "Jayden Sweeney", "ai_score": 0.8, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 33124, "name": "Cameron McJannett", "ai_score": 0.817, "position": "D", "starting": true}, {"id": 36186, "name": "Maldini Kacurri", "ai_score": 0.804, "position": 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"ai_score": 0.357, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 58884, "name": "Ryley Reynolds", "ai_score": 0.355, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 26775, "name": "David Harrington", "ai_score": 0.337, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 42787, "name": "Edon Pruti", "ai_score": 0.28, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 6862, "name": "Finlay Cartwright", "ai_score": 0.276, "position": "M", "starting": false}, {"id": 64052, "name": "Joe Foulkes", "ai_score": 0.275, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 33137, "name": "Reece Staunton", "ai_score": 0.201, "position": "D", "starting": false}, {"id": 33606, "name": "Sebastian Auton", "ai_score": 0.16, "position": "G", "starting": false}, {"id": 33990, "name": "Josh Andrews", "ai_score": 0.148, "position": "F", "starting": false}], "formation": "4-1-4-1", "confidence": 0.755}, "status": "predicted", "confidence": 0.755, "unavailable": []}, "neutral": false, "notable": [{"id": 35382, "name": "Charlie McCann", "rank": 1, "goals": 7}, {"id": 46264, "name": "Alex Newby", "rank": 2, "goals": 6}, {"id": 37573, "name": "Charlie Lakin", "rank": 3, "goals": 6}, {"id": 34019, "name": "Aaron Drinan", "rank": 4, "goals": 5}, {"id": 33677, "name": "Charlie Caton", "rank": 5, "goals": 5}, {"id": 63280, "name": "Shaquille Gwengwe", "rank": 6, "goals": 5}, {"id": 37571, "name": "Aaron Pressley", "rank": 7, "goals": 4}, {"id": 6232, "name": "Andreas Weimann", "rank": 8, "goals": 4}, {"id": 46485, "name": "Calum Kavanagh", "rank": 9, "goals": 4}, {"id": 34246, "name": "Kabongo Tshimanga", "rank": 10, "goals": 4}, {"id": 33549, "name": "Paul Mullin", "rank": 11, "goals": 4}, {"id": 34073, "name": "Fabrizio Cavegn", "rank": 12, "goals": 3}, {"id": 6710, "name": "Jake Evans", "rank": 13, "goals": 3}, {"id": 33581, "name": "James Brophy", "rank": 14, "goals": 3}, {"id": 33640, "name": "Joe Powell", "rank": 15, "goals": 3}], "players": [{"id": 33128, "club": null, "load": {"games": 2, "country": 0, "minutes": 188}, "name": "Kieran Green", "role": "MID", "side": "home", "tags": ["top_scorer", "chance_creator", "in_form"], "team": "Grimsby Town", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 5, "goals": 3, "assists": 1, "country": 0, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": {"apps": 9, "goals": 3, "starts": 9, "assists": 2, "team_games": 16, "big_chances": 7, "clean_sheets": 4, "tracked_apps": 9, "tracked_starts": 9}, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "AM", "standout": {"won": true, "goals": 1, "score": "2-0", "assists": 0, "kickoff": 1789212600, "opponent": "Bristol Rovers"}, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.172, "expected_return": null}, {"id": 33524, "club": null, "load": {"games": 1, "country": 0, "minutes": 40}, "name": "Andy Cook", "role": "ATT", "side": "home", "tags": [], "team": "Grimsby Town", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 5, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "country": 0, "scoredIn": 0}, "season": {"apps": 8, "goals": 2, "starts": 6, "assists": 0, "team_games": 16, "big_chances": 0, "clean_sheets": 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"minutes": 171}, "name": "Isaac Fletcher", "role": "ATT", "side": "away", "tags": [], "team": "Shrewsbury Town", "reason": null, "recent": {"apps": 5, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "country": 0, "scoredIn": 1}, "season": {"apps": 10, "goals": 1, "starts": 7, "assists": 0, "team_games": 14, "big_chances": 2, "clean_sheets": 2, "tracked_apps": 10, "tracked_starts": 7}, "status": "fit", "country": null, "position": "CM", "standout": {"won": false, "goals": 1, "score": "2-2", "assists": 0, "kickoff": 1790431200, "opponent": "Colchester United"}, "strengths": [], "importance": 0.087, "expected_return": null}], "external": {"bsd_prediction": {"id": 4138, "event": {"id": 224649, "status": "notstarted", "away_team": "Shrewsbury Town", "home_team": "Grimsby Town", "league_id": 87, "event_date": "2026-10-03T14:00:00Z", "league_name": "League Two", "away_team_id": 1430, "home_team_id": 1418}, "model": {"version": "dc-blend-v1", "confidence": 0.5524}, "created_at": "2026-09-27T02:15:30Z", "recommendations": {"btts": false, "winner": false, "over_15": false, "over_25": false, "over_35": false, "favorite": "H", "bet_favorite": false, "favorite_prob": 55.2}}}, "venue_id": 868, "verdicts": [], "card_rate": 0.121, "league_id": 87, "published": [], "standings": {"away": {"won": 2, "lost": 4, "drawn": 2, "group": null, "played": 8, "points": 8, "team_id": 1430, "position": 18, "goal_diff": -6, "goals_for": 7, "team_name": "Shrewsbury Town", "goals_against": 13}, "home": {"won": 3, "lost": 1, "drawn": 4, "group": null, "played": 8, "points": 13, "team_id": 1418, "position": 6, "goal_diff": 4, "goals_for": 12, "team_name": "Grimsby Town", "goals_against": 8}, "size": 24}, "confidence": 0.609, "live_score": null, "computed_at": 1790871150, "corner_rate": 10.07, "lambda_away": 0.8345848748708821, "lambda_home": 1.7647559680580207, "pass_reason": "Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was both teams to score — no at 2.05, where the edge of 5.4 points does not clear the 7.6 needed against a 8.1% margin.", "provisional": true, "round_label": "Regular season · Matchday 9", "lineup_status": "predicted"}