{"id":224188,"league_id":86,"league":"League One","kickoff":1792521900,"home":"Stevenage","away":"Plymouth Argyle","home_id":1435,"away_id":1258,"venue_id":885,"rank":5,"status":"finished","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.648,"score":[3,0],"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.22,1.27],"odds_1x2":{"HOME":0.36004189744629866,"DRAW":0.2753914984811938,"AWAY":0.3645666040725074},"read":{"text":"Too close to call","side":null},"top_pick":null,"pass":"Passing on Stevenage v Plymouth Argyle. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","confident":[],"flags":[{"id":"form.away","section":"§2.1","note":"Plymouth Argyle have taken 2.50 points a game from their last 6 (5W 0D 1L), scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.0, and 3.00 a game on the road."}],"lambda_home":1.2196631784065026,"lambda_away":1.2744169356179293,"corner_rate":9.56,"card_rate":0.092,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.759,"home":{"formation":"4-4-1-1","players":[{"id":3462,"name":"Tommy Setford","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.523},{"id":34024,"name":"Lewis Freestone","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.742},{"id":35488,"name":"Terence Vancooten","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.833},{"id":34038,"name":"Carl Piergianni","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.829},{"id":37339,"name":"Luther James-Wildin","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.739},{"id":34026,"name":"Daniel Phillips","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.848},{"id":34029,"name":"Daniel Kemp","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.816},{"id":34033,"name":"Jordan Houghton","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.285},{"id":17266,"name":"Josh Magennis","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.738},{"id":64419,"name":"Oliver Sanderson","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.693},{"id":37338,"name":"Jordan Roberts","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.424},{"id":37337,"name":"Louis Thompson","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.595},{"id":34030,"name":"Phoenix Patterson","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.429},{"id":37336,"name":"Saxon Earley","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.429},{"id":29919,"name":"Matthew Smith","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.342},{"id":36792,"name":"Michael Mellon","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.296},{"id":33973,"name":"Terry Taylor","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.293},{"id":4139,"name":"Ben Broggio","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.284},{"id":7117,"name":"Wanya Marcal Madivadua","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.282},{"id":36764,"name":"Daniel Barden","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.232},{"id":34022,"name":"Jasper Pattenden","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.18},{"id":6539,"name":"Kaelan Casey","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.025},{"id":37342,"name":"Max Woodford","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.005}],"confidence":0.791},"away":{"formation":"4-4-2","players":[{"id":8587,"name":"Murphy Cooper","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.798},{"id":6478,"name":"Wes Harding","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.849},{"id":7138,"name":"Alex Mitchell","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.811},{"id":28902,"name":"Mathias Ross","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.433},{"id":28906,"name":"Joe Edwards","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.305},{"id":34027,"name":"Harvey White","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.837},{"id":28895,"name":"Ronan Curtis","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.747},{"id":34045,"name":"Tyreeq Bakinson","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.65},{"id":28892,"name":"Bradley Ibrahim","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.565},{"id":33617,"name":"Will Evans","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.725},{"id":28888,"name":"Owen Oseni","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.213},{"id":36601,"name":"Oliver Irow","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.681},{"id":16949,"name":"Aribim Pepple","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.678},{"id":28903,"name":"Julio Pleguezuelo","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.602},{"id":28897,"name":"Matthew Sorinola","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.55},{"id":33666,"name":"Alex Hartridge","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.416},{"id":28896,"name":"Caleb Watts","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.402},{"id":28886,"name":"Xavier Amaechi","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.239},{"id":64238,"name":"James Storer","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.206},{"id":28908,"name":"Joe Mwaro","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.196},{"id":28905,"name":"Jack Mackenzie","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.118},{"id":75816,"name":"Jared Rendle","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.03},{"id":28901,"name":"Seb Campbell","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.01}],"confidence":0.759},"unavailable":[]},"people":[{"id":3462,"name":"Tommy Setford","side":"home"},{"id":34024,"name":"Lewis Freestone","side":"home"},{"id":35488,"name":"Terence Vancooten","side":"home"},{"id":34038,"name":"Carl Piergianni","side":"home"},{"id":37339,"name":"Luther James-Wildin","side":"home"},{"id":34026,"name":"Daniel Phillips","side":"home"},{"id":34029,"name":"Daniel Kemp","side":"home"},{"id":34033,"name":"Jordan Houghton","side":"home"},{"id":17266,"name":"Josh Magennis","side":"home"},{"id":64419,"name":"Oliver Sanderson","side":"home"},{"id":37338,"name":"Jordan Roberts","side":"home"},{"id":37337,"name":"Louis Thompson","side":"home"},{"id":34030,"name":"Phoenix Patterson","side":"home"},{"id":37336,"name":"Saxon Earley","side":"home"},{"id":29919,"name":"Matthew Smith","side":"home"},{"id":36792,"name":"Michael Mellon","side":"home"},{"id":33973,"name":"Terry Taylor","side":"home"},{"id":4139,"name":"Ben Broggio","side":"home"},{"id":7117,"name":"Wanya Marcal Madivadua","side":"home"},{"id":36764,"name":"Daniel Barden","side":"home"},{"id":34022,"name":"Jasper Pattenden","side":"home"},{"id":6539,"name":"Kaelan Casey","side":"home"},{"id":37342,"name":"Max Woodford","side":"home"},{"id":30792,"name":"Tugra Turhan","side":"home"},{"id":217698,"name":"Samuel Ayolie","side":"home"},{"id":64420,"name":"Lenny Brown","side":"home"},{"id":34028,"name":"Chem Campbell","side":"home"},{"id":8587,"name":"Murphy Cooper","side":"away"},{"id":6478,"name":"Wes Harding","side":"away"},{"id":7138,"name":"Alex Mitchell","side":"away"},{"id":28902,"name":"Mathias Ross","side":"away"},{"id":28906,"name":"Joe Edwards","side":"away"},{"id":34027,"name":"Harvey White","side":"away"},{"id":28895,"name":"Ronan Curtis","side":"away"},{"id":34045,"name":"Tyreeq Bakinson","side":"away"},{"id":28892,"name":"Bradley Ibrahim","side":"away"},{"id":33617,"name":"Will Evans","side":"away"},{"id":28888,"name":"Owen Oseni","side":"away"},{"id":36601,"name":"Oliver Irow","side":"away"},{"id":16949,"name":"Aribim Pepple","side":"away"},{"id":28903,"name":"Julio Pleguezuelo","side":"away"},{"id":28897,"name":"Matthew Sorinola","side":"away"},{"id":33666,"name":"Alex Hartridge","side":"away"},{"id":28896,"name":"Caleb Watts","side":"away"},{"id":28886,"name":"Xavier Amaechi","side":"away"},{"id":64238,"name":"James Storer","side":"away"},{"id":28908,"name":"Joe Mwaro","side":"away"},{"id":28905,"name":"Jack Mackenzie","side":"away"},{"id":75816,"name":"Jared Rendle","side":"away"},{"id":28901,"name":"Seb Campbell","side":"away"},{"id":75815,"name":"Sam Hayman","side":"away"},{"id":75813,"name":"James Sharpe","side":"away"},{"id":75814,"name":"Leo McCormick","side":"away"},{"id":28893,"name":"Malachi Boateng","side":"away"},{"id":64237,"name":"Michael Baidoo","side":"away"},{"id":72846,"name":"Frankie Maund","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":34029,"name":"Daniel Kemp","side":"home","team":"Stevenage","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"MID","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":11,"starts":10,"goals":4,"assists":1,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":9},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":3,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Barnsley","kickoff":1788616800,"goals":2,"assists":1,"score":"5-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","best_performer","in_form"],"importance":0.324,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":180,"country":0}},{"id":17266,"name":"Josh Magennis","side":"home","team":"Stevenage","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":11,"starts":8,"goals":3,"assists":2,"big_chances":5,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":1,"scoredIn":0,"country":3},"standout":{"opponent":"Wycombe Wanderers","kickoff":1786128300,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["chance_creator"],"importance":0.273,"country":{"team":"Northern Ireland","apps":6,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":{"apps":2,"goals":0,"assists":0}},"load":{"games":2,"minutes":161,"country":0}},{"id":64419,"name":"Oliver Sanderson","side":"home","team":"Stevenage","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":11,"starts":7,"goals":3,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Doncaster Rovers","kickoff":1788012000,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.155,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":132,"country":0}},{"id":16949,"name":"Aribim Pepple","side":"away","team":"Plymouth Argyle","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":12,"starts":10,"goals":5,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":4,"team_games":18,"tracked_apps":11,"tracked_starts":9},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":3,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Barnsley","kickoff":1789221600,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"3-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.122,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":63,"country":0}},{"id":33617,"name":"Will Evans","side":"away","team":"Plymouth Argyle","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":13,"starts":11,"goals":3,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":4,"team_games":18,"tracked_apps":12,"tracked_starts":10},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Leyton Orient","kickoff":1791036000,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.079,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":180,"country":0}},{"id":28888,"name":"Owen Oseni","side":"away","team":"Plymouth Argyle","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":2,"starts":0,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":18,"tracked_apps":2,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":1435,"away":1258},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":0,"d":1,"l":3},"below":{"w":3,"d":2,"l":0}},"away":{"above":{"w":1,"d":0,"l":1},"below":{"w":5,"d":1,"l":2}}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":882,"name":"Alex Revell","vs":{"w":0,"d":1,"l":1,"last":{"kickoff":1773776700,"score":"0-1","result":"L"}}},"away":{"id":872,"name":"Tom Cleverley","vs":{"w":1,"d":1,"l":0,"last":{"kickoff":1773776700,"score":"1-0","result":"W"}}}},"best_xi":[],"players":{"17266":{"caps":74,"goals":6,"country":"Northern Ireland","signed":null},"28888":{"caps":1,"goals":0,"country":"Nigeria","signed":null}}},"notable":[{"id":28997,"name":"Jack Marriott","goals":8,"rank":1},{"id":33742,"name":"Kyle Wootton","goals":8,"rank":2},{"id":28470,"name":"Aaron Collins","goals":7,"rank":3},{"id":29913,"name":"Joe Taylor","goals":6,"rank":4},{"id":5519,"name":"Derensili Sanches Fernandes","goals":5,"rank":5},{"id":6171,"name":"Jamal Lowe","goals":5,"rank":6},{"id":28334,"name":"Nahki Wells","goals":5,"rank":7},{"id":16949,"name":"Aribim Pepple","goals":4,"rank":8},{"id":33589,"name":"Ben Knight","goals":4,"rank":9},{"id":33737,"name":"Jack Diamond","goals":4,"rank":10},{"id":8976,"name":"Jacob Brown","goals":4,"rank":11},{"id":33501,"name":"Jayden Stockley","goals":4,"rank":12},{"id":33131,"name":"Jaze Kabia","goals":4,"rank":13},{"id":6291,"name":"Mark Harris","goals":4,"rank":14},{"id":36603,"name":"Victor Adeboyejo","goals":4,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 12","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":11,"home_wins":2,"draws":2,"away_wins":7,"home_goals":12,"away_goals":18,"avg_total_goals":2.727272727272727,"home_win_rate":0.18181818181818182,"away_win_rate":0.6363636363636364,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Stevenage","date":"2026-03-17T19:45:00+00:00","home":"Plymouth Argyle","score":"1-0","event_id":227767,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1435,"home_team_id":1258},{"away":"Plymouth Argyle","date":"2026-01-01T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Stevenage","score":"1-1","event_id":227580,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1258,"home_team_id":1435},{"away":"Plymouth Argyle","date":"2020-01-25T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Stevenage","score":"1-2","event_id":291459,"away_score":2,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1258,"home_team_id":1435},{"away":"Stevenage","date":"2019-12-29T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Plymouth Argyle","score":"2-1","event_id":291396,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":1435,"home_team_id":1258},{"away":"Stevenage","date":"2018-11-10T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Plymouth Argyle","score":"1-0","event_id":300851,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1435,"home_team_id":1258},{"away":"Stevenage","date":"2017-01-14T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Plymouth Argyle","score":"4-2","event_id":363192,"away_score":2,"home_score":4,"away_team_id":1435,"home_team_id":1258},{"away":"Plymouth Argyle","date":"2016-10-08T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Stevenage","score":"1-2","event_id":363020,"away_score":2,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1258,"home_team_id":1435},{"away":"Stevenage","date":"2016-01-16T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Plymouth Argyle","score":"3-2","event_id":382320,"away_score":2,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":1435,"home_team_id":1258},{"away":"Plymouth Argyle","date":"2015-09-05T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Stevenage","score":"2-1","event_id":382051,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":1258,"home_team_id":1435},{"away":"Plymouth Argyle","date":"2015-03-03T19:45:00+00:00","home":"Stevenage","score":"1-0","event_id":397483,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1258,"home_team_id":1435}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":1435,"position":12,"played":9,"points":12,"goal_diff":2,"team_name":"Stevenage","won":3,"drawn":3,"lost":3,"goals_for":12,"goals_against":10,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":1258,"position":4,"played":11,"points":19,"goal_diff":4,"team_name":"Plymouth Argyle","won":6,"drawn":1,"lost":4,"goals_for":18,"goals_against":14,"group":null},"size":24},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.83,"record":"3-2-1","goals_for":1.67,"goals_against":0.83,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"none","sequence":"DDWWLW","venue_ppg":2.33},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":2.5,"record":"5-0-1","goals_for":2.33,"goals_against":1,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"none","sequence":"WWWLWW","venue_ppg":3}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Stevenage report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.away.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Plymouth Argyle report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.759,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.241,"moves":[]},{"id":"form.home","section":"§2.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Stevenage have taken 1.83 points a game from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.8, and 2.33 a game at home.","evidence":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.83,"record":"3-2-1","goals_for":1.67,"goals_against":0.83,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"none","sequence":"DDWWLW","venue_ppg":2.33},"strength":0.322,"moves":[]},{"id":"form.away","section":"§2.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Plymouth Argyle have taken 2.50 points a game from their last 6 (5W 0D 1L), scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.0, and 3.00 a game on the road.","evidence":{"matches":6,"ppg":2.5,"record":"5-0-1","goals_for":2.33,"goals_against":1,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"none","sequence":"WWWLWW","venue_ppg":3},"strength":0.7,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":34,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":12,"points":12,"games_left":34,"gap_to_leader":8,"gap_to_safety":4,"gap_to_europe":6},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":4,"points":19,"games_left":34,"gap_to_leader":1,"gap_to_safety":11,"gap_to_europe":-1},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-0, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Alex Revell has 63 matches in charge at Stevenage, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Alex Revell","matches_in_charge":63,"tenure_days":435,"ppm":1.44,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.4,"after_ppm":1.9,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Tom Cleverley has 62 matches in charge at Plymouth Argyle, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Tom Cleverley","matches_in_charge":62,"tenure_days":421,"ppm":1.76,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":1.1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Stevenage come in on 3 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.1979166666666665,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":3.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Plymouth Argyle come in on 3 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.1979166666666665,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":3.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.124,"defence":0.195,"effective_matches":15.9,"shrunk":0.34},"away":{"attack":0.199,"defence":0.046,"effective_matches":15.9,"shrunk":0.33}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":47.3,"shots":11.3,"xg_per_shot":0.094,"corners":4.7,"corners_per_shot":0.413,"finishing_vs_xg":0.27},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":44.8,"shots":15.4,"xg_per_shot":0.11,"corners":5.6,"corners_per_shot":0.362,"finishing_vs_xg":0.13},"possession_gap":2.5},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Stevenage have scored 3 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.27,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Plymouth Argyle are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.13,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 323 km for Plymouth Argyle.","evidence":{"travel_km":323},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.1308138437274424},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"market.overround","section":"§7.3","tier":7,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The bookmakers are taking a 8.0% cut on this match. The bigger their cut, the further out a price has to be before it is worth backing.","evidence":{"overround":1.0796,"margin_pct":7.96,"devig_method":"shin","books_quoting":3},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"market.movement","section":"§7.1","tier":7,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The line has barely moved since it opened.","evidence":{"moves":[{"outcome":"AWAY","move_pct":1.1,"direction":"SHORTENING"},{"outcome":"HOME","move_pct":-0.8,"direction":"DRIFTING"},{"outcome":"DRAW","move_pct":-0.3,"direction":"DRIFTING"}]},"strength":0.057,"moves":[]},{"id":"market.sharp_reference","section":"§7.1","tier":7,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The sharp book and the wider market agree on this fixture.","evidence":{"sharp":{"HOME":0.3574,"DRAW":0.281,"AWAY":0.3616},"consensus":{"HOME":0.36,"DRAW":0.2754,"AWAY":0.3646},"largest_gap":{"outcome":"DRAW","points":0.56},"sharp_overround":1.0547},"strength":0.07,"moves":[]},{"id":"market.prediction_market","section":"§7.2","tier":7,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No prediction-market prices for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"markets":[{"market":"1x2","line":null,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.3407,"DRAW":0.2925,"AWAY":0.3668},"book":{"HOME":0.36,"DRAW":0.2754,"AWAY":0.3646},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":2.7,"bookmaker":"coral"},"DRAW":{"odds":3.5,"bookmaker":"betfair"},"AWAY":{"odds":2.65,"bookmaker":"dafabet"}},"overround":1.0796,"books":14,"sharp":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"HOME":0.3574,"DRAW":0.281,"AWAY":0.3616}},"open":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"HOME":0.3604,"DRAW":0.2821,"AWAY":0.3576}}},{"market":"double_chance","line":null,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"12":0.7075,"1X":0.6332,"X2":0.6593},"book":{"12":0.7246,"1X":0.6354,"X2":0.64},"best":{"12":{"odds":1.3,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"1X":{"odds":1.45,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"X2":{"odds":1.46,"bookmaker":"1xBet"}},"overround":1.0719,"books":5,"sharp":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"12":0.719,"1X":0.6384,"X2":0.6426}},"open":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"12":0.7179,"1X":0.6424,"X2":0.6396}}},{"market":"draw_no_bet","line":null,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.4815,"AWAY":0.5185},"book":{"HOME":0.4969,"AWAY":0.5031},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.88,"bookmaker":"Unibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.87,"bookmaker":"Betano"}},"overround":1.0793,"books":12,"sharp":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"HOME":0.4971,"AWAY":0.5029}},"open":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"HOME":0.502,"AWAY":0.498}}},{"market":"btts","line":null,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"yes":0.5188,"no":0.4812},"book":{"yes":0.5635,"no":0.4365},"best":{"yes":{"odds":1.67,"bookmaker":"Novibet"},"no":{"odds":2.15,"bookmaker":"Unibet"}},"overround":1.0789,"books":17,"sharp":{"book":"betfair","fair":{"yes":0.5668,"no":0.4332}},"open":{"book":"betfair","fair":{"yes":0.5668,"no":0.4332}}},{"market":"over_under_05","line":0.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"over":0.9063,"under":0.0937},"book":{"over":0.9368,"under":0.0632},"best":{"over":{"odds":1.04,"bookmaker":"betfair"},"under":{"odds":11,"bookmaker":"betfair"}},"overround":1.0675,"books":3,"sharp":{"book":"betfair","fair":{"over":0.9353,"under":0.0647}},"open":{"book":"betfair","fair":{"over":0.9353,"under":0.0647}}},{"market":"over_under_15","line":1.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"over":0.7226,"under":0.2774},"book":{"over":0.7578,"under":0.2422},"best":{"over":{"odds":1.29,"bookmaker":"BetVictor"},"under":{"odds":3.8,"bookmaker":"betfair"}},"overround":1.068,"books":4,"sharp":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.7607,"under":0.2393}},"open":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.7624,"under":0.2376}}},{"market":"over_under_25","line":2.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"over":0.4547,"under":0.5453},"book":{"over":0.5047,"under":0.4953},"best":{"over":{"odds":1.9,"bookmaker":"Bet365"},"under":{"odds":1.95,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle"}},"overround":1.0589,"books":6,"sharp":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.5095,"under":0.4905}},"open":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.5082,"under":0.4918}}},{"market":"over_under_35","line":3.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"over":0.2412,"under":0.7588},"book":{"over":0.2904,"under":0.7096},"best":{"over":{"odds":3.17,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle"},"under":{"odds":1.36,"bookmaker":"betfair"}},"overround":1.0682,"books":4,"sharp":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.2874,"under":0.7126}},"open":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.2884,"under":0.7116}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-2.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.0496,"AWAY":0.9504},"book":{"HOME":0.0526,"AWAY":0.9474},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":10.5,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.01,"bookmaker":"1xBet"}},"overround":1.0853,"books":1,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.0526,"AWAY":0.9474}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-2,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.0551,"AWAY":0.9449},"book":{"HOME":0.0548,"AWAY":0.9452},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":9.3,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.002,"bookmaker":"1xBet"}},"overround":1.1055,"books":1,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.0548,"AWAY":0.9452}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-1.75,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.1049,"AWAY":0.8951},"book":{"HOME":0.1128,"AWAY":0.8872},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":7,"bookmaker":"Bet365"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.1,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0741,"books":2,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.1128,"AWAY":0.8872}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-1.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.1497,"AWAY":0.8503},"book":{"HOME":0.1587,"AWAY":0.8413},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":5.5,"bookmaker":"Unibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.16,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0749,"books":5,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.1587,"AWAY":0.8413}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-1.25,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.1655,"AWAY":0.8345},"book":{"HOME":0.1752,"AWAY":0.8248},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":5,"bookmaker":"Unibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.18,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0736,"books":4,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.1752,"AWAY":0.8248}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-1,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.185,"AWAY":0.815},"book":{"HOME":0.1994,"AWAY":0.8006},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":4.5,"bookmaker":"Unibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.21,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0754,"books":5,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.1994,"AWAY":0.8006}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-0.75,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.2711,"AWAY":0.7289},"book":{"HOME":0.2874,"AWAY":0.7126},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":3.15,"bookmaker":"Novibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.35,"bookmaker":"Novibet"}},"overround":1.0749,"books":5,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.2874,"AWAY":0.7126}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-0.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.3407,"AWAY":0.6593},"book":{"HOME":0.3551,"AWAY":0.6449},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":2.65,"bookmaker":"Betsson"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.5,"bookmaker":"Betsson"}},"overround":1.0717,"books":7,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.3551,"AWAY":0.6449}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":-0.25,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.399,"AWAY":0.601},"book":{"HOME":0.4201,"AWAY":0.5799},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":2.25,"bookmaker":"Novibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.64,"bookmaker":"fonbet"}},"overround":1.0689,"books":7,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.4201,"AWAY":0.5799}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":0,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.4815,"AWAY":0.5185},"book":{"HOME":0.4996,"AWAY":0.5004},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.925,"bookmaker":"Bet365"},"AWAY":{"odds":1.925,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0672,"books":7,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.4996,"AWAY":0.5004}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":0.25,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.5704,"AWAY":0.4296},"book":{"HOME":0.5803,"AWAY":0.4197},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.64,"bookmaker":"fonbet"},"AWAY":{"odds":2.25,"bookmaker":"Novibet"}},"overround":1.0726,"books":5,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.5803,"AWAY":0.4197}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":0.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.6332,"AWAY":0.3668},"book":{"HOME":0.6391,"AWAY":0.3609},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.49,"bookmaker":"Novibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":2.6,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.0729,"books":7,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.6391,"AWAY":0.3609}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":0.75,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.7036,"AWAY":0.2964},"book":{"HOME":0.7126,"AWAY":0.2874},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.35,"bookmaker":"Novibet"},"AWAY":{"odds":3.15,"bookmaker":"Novibet"}},"overround":1.0747,"books":5,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.7126,"AWAY":0.2874}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":1,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.7916,"AWAY":0.2084},"book":{"HOME":0.8014,"AWAY":0.1986},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.21,"bookmaker":"Bet365"},"AWAY":{"odds":4.5,"bookmaker":"Unibet"}},"overround":1.075,"books":5,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.8014,"AWAY":0.1986}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":1.25,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.8147,"AWAY":0.1853},"book":{"HOME":0.8253,"AWAY":0.1747},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.18,"bookmaker":"Bet365"},"AWAY":{"odds":5,"bookmaker":"Unibet"}},"overround":1.0734,"books":4,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.8253,"AWAY":0.1747}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":1.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.8333,"AWAY":0.1667},"book":{"HOME":0.8416,"AWAY":0.1584},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.16,"bookmaker":"Bet365"},"AWAY":{"odds":5.5,"bookmaker":"Unibet"}},"overround":1.0748,"books":5,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.8416,"AWAY":0.1584}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":1.75,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.8814,"AWAY":0.1186},"book":{"HOME":0.8874,"AWAY":0.1126},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.1,"bookmaker":"Bet365"},"AWAY":{"odds":7,"bookmaker":"Bet365"}},"overround":1.07,"books":2,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.8874,"AWAY":0.1126}}},{"market":"asian_handicap","line":2,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"HOME":0.9355,"AWAY":0.0645},"book":{"HOME":0.9419,"AWAY":0.0581},"best":{"HOME":{"odds":1.01,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"AWAY":{"odds":9.4,"bookmaker":"1xBet"}},"overround":1.0965,"books":1,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"HOME":0.9419,"AWAY":0.0581}}},{"market":"total_corners","line":7.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"over":0.7084,"under":0.2916},"book":{"over":0.7485,"under":0.2515},"best":{"over":{"odds":1.25,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"under":{"odds":3.3,"bookmaker":"1xBet"}},"overround":1.103,"books":1,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"over":0.7886,"under":0.2114}}},{"market":"total_corners","line":8.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"over":0.5947,"under":0.4053},"book":{"over":0.6406,"under":0.3594},"best":{"over":{"odds":1.48,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle"},"under":{"odds":2.55,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle"}},"overround":1.0744,"books":2,"sharp":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.6418,"under":0.3582}},"open":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.6418,"under":0.3582}}},{"market":"total_corners","line":9.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"over":0.4778,"under":0.5222},"book":{"over":0.5177,"under":0.4823},"best":{"over":{"odds":1.83,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle"},"under":{"odds":1.96,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle"}},"overround":1.0632,"books":2,"sharp":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.5181,"under":0.4819}},"open":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.5446,"under":0.4554}}},{"market":"total_corners","line":10.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"over":0.3675,"under":0.6325},"book":{"over":0.4041,"under":0.5959},"best":{"over":{"odds":2.29,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle"},"under":{"odds":1.59,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle"}},"overround":1.0735,"books":2,"sharp":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.4039,"under":0.5961}},"open":{"book":"pinnacle","fair":{"over":0.431,"under":0.569}}},{"market":"total_corners","line":11.5,"confidence":0.648,"model":{"over":0.2707,"under":0.7293},"book":{"over":0.3082,"under":0.6918},"best":{"over":{"odds":2.8,"bookmaker":"1xBet"},"under":{"odds":1.35,"bookmaker":"1xBet"}},"overround":1.0979,"books":1,"sharp":null,"open":{"book":"consensus","fair":{"over":0.3067,"under":0.6933}}},{"market":"corners_1x2","line":null,"confidence":0.519,"model":{"HOME":0.453,"DRAW":0.119,"AWAY":0.428},"book":{},"best":{},"overround":1,"books":0,"sharp":null,"open":null},{"market":"red_card","line":null,"confidence":0.454,"model":{"yes":0.0878,"no":0.9122},"book":{},"best":{},"overround":1,"books":0,"sharp":null,"open":null}],"candidates":[{"market":"over_under_25","outcome":"under","line":2.5,"push":null,"model_prob":0.5453,"book_prob":0.4953,"edge":0.0501,"shrunk_edge":0.0426,"odds":1.95,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle","prices":[{"slug":"pinnacle","book":"Pinnacle","odds":1.95},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.9},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.9},{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":1.9},{"slug":"sbo","book":"Sbo","odds":1.86},{"slug":"betvictor","book":"BetVictor","odds":1.85}],"kelly":0.0167,"confidence":0.648,"family":"goals"},{"market":"over_under_35","outcome":"under","line":3.5,"push":null,"model_prob":0.7588,"book_prob":0.7096,"edge":0.0492,"shrunk_edge":0.0418,"odds":1.36,"bookmaker":"betfair","prices":[{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":1.36},{"slug":"pinnacle","book":"Pinnacle","odds":1.35},{"slug":"betvictor","book":"BetVictor","odds":1.33},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.31}],"kelly":0.0222,"confidence":0.648,"family":"goals"},{"market":"btts","outcome":"no","line":null,"push":null,"model_prob":0.4812,"book_prob":0.4365,"edge":0.0447,"shrunk_edge":0.038,"odds":2.15,"bookmaker":"Unibet","prices":[{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":2.15},{"slug":"betway","book":"Betway","odds":2.15},{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":2.15},{"slug":"betsson","book":"Betsson","odds":2.12},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":2.11},{"slug":"betano","book":"Betano","odds":2.1},{"slug":"interwetten","book":"Interwetten","odds":2.1},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":2.1},{"slug":"888sport","book":"888Sport","odds":2.1},{"slug":"william-hill","book":"William Hill","odds":2.1},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":2.1},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":2.1}],"kelly":0.0075,"confidence":0.648,"family":"goals"},{"market":"over_under_15","outcome":"under","line":1.5,"push":null,"model_prob":0.2774,"book_prob":0.2422,"edge":0.0351,"shrunk_edge":0.0299,"odds":3.8,"bookmaker":"betfair","prices":[{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":3.8},{"slug":"pinnacle","book":"Pinnacle","odds":3.76},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":3.34},{"slug":"betvictor","book":"BetVictor","odds":3.2}],"kelly":0.0048,"confidence":0.648,"family":"goals"},{"market":"over_under_05","outcome":"under","line":0.5,"push":null,"model_prob":0.0937,"book_prob":0.0632,"edge":0.0305,"shrunk_edge":0.0259,"odds":11,"bookmaker":"betfair","prices":[{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":11},{"slug":"betvictor","book":"BetVictor","odds":10.5},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":8.9}],"kelly":0.0008,"confidence":0.648,"family":"goals"},{"market":"total_corners","outcome":"under","line":8.5,"push":null,"model_prob":0.4053,"book_prob":0.3594,"edge":0.0459,"shrunk_edge":0.0253,"odds":2.55,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle","prices":[{"slug":"pinnacle","book":"Pinnacle","odds":2.55},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":2.43}],"kelly":0.0054,"confidence":0.648,"family":"corners"},{"market":"total_corners","outcome":"under","line":7.5,"push":null,"model_prob":0.2916,"book_prob":0.2515,"edge":0.0401,"shrunk_edge":0.0221,"odds":3.3,"bookmaker":"1xBet","prices":[{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":3.3}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"corners"},{"market":"total_corners","outcome":"under","line":9.5,"push":null,"model_prob":0.5222,"book_prob":0.4823,"edge":0.0398,"shrunk_edge":0.0219,"odds":1.96,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle","prices":[{"slug":"pinnacle","book":"Pinnacle","odds":1.96},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.9}],"kelly":0.0061,"confidence":0.648,"family":"corners"},{"market":"total_corners","outcome":"under","line":11.5,"push":null,"model_prob":0.7293,"book_prob":0.6918,"edge":0.0375,"shrunk_edge":0.0207,"odds":1.35,"bookmaker":"1xBet","prices":[{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.35}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"corners"},{"market":"total_corners","outcome":"under","line":10.5,"push":null,"model_prob":0.6325,"book_prob":0.5959,"edge":0.0366,"shrunk_edge":0.0201,"odds":1.59,"bookmaker":"Pinnacle","prices":[{"slug":"pinnacle","book":"Pinnacle","odds":1.59},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.55}],"kelly":0.0024,"confidence":0.648,"family":"corners"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-0.25,"push":"half","model_prob":0.601,"book_prob":0.5799,"edge":0.0211,"shrunk_edge":0.0158,"odds":1.64,"bookmaker":"fonbet","prices":[{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.64},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.636},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.63},{"slug":"betsson","book":"Betsson","odds":1.63},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.625},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.62},{"slug":"10bet","book":"10bet","odds":1.615}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"double_chance","outcome":"X2","line":null,"push":null,"model_prob":0.6593,"book_prob":0.64,"edge":0.0194,"shrunk_edge":0.0155,"odds":1.46,"bookmaker":"1xBet","prices":[{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.46},{"slug":"william-hill","book":"William Hill","odds":1.44},{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":1.44},{"slug":"betvictor","book":"BetVictor","odds":1.44},{"slug":"sbo","book":"Sbo","odds":1.39}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"result"},{"market":"1x2","outcome":"DRAW","line":null,"push":null,"model_prob":0.2925,"book_prob":0.2754,"edge":0.0172,"shrunk_edge":0.0137,"odds":3.5,"bookmaker":"betfair","prices":[{"slug":"betfair","book":"betfair","odds":3.5},{"slug":"melbet","book":"MelBet","odds":3.43},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":3.4},{"slug":"coral","book":"coral","odds":3.4},{"slug":"ladbrokes","book":"ladbrokes","odds":3.4},{"slug":"betvictor","book":"BetVictor","odds":3.4},{"slug":"pinnacle","book":"Pinnacle","odds":3.35},{"slug":"dafabet","book":"dafabet","odds":3.35},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":3.32},{"slug":"bwin","book":"Bwin","odds":3.3},{"slug":"cashpoint","book":"Cashpoint","odds":3.3},{"slug":"mansionbet","book":"MansionBet","odds":3.2}],"kelly":0.0024,"confidence":0.648,"family":"result"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":0,"push":"full","model_prob":0.5185,"book_prob":0.5004,"edge":0.018,"shrunk_edge":0.0135,"odds":1.925,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.925},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.88},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.87},{"slug":"10bet","book":"10bet","odds":1.87},{"slug":"interwetten","book":"Interwetten","odds":1.85},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.85},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.85}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"draw_no_bet","outcome":"AWAY","line":null,"push":null,"model_prob":0.5185,"book_prob":0.5031,"edge":0.0153,"shrunk_edge":0.0123,"odds":1.87,"bookmaker":"Betano","prices":[{"slug":"betano","book":"Betano","odds":1.87},{"slug":"betsson","book":"Betsson","odds":1.87},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.86},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.85},{"slug":"betway","book":"Betway","odds":1.85},{"slug":"888sport","book":"888Sport","odds":1.85},{"slug":"william-hill","book":"William Hill","odds":1.85},{"slug":"10bet","book":"10bet","odds":1.85},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.833},{"slug":"bwin","book":"Bwin","odds":1.82},{"slug":"sportingbet","book":"SportingBet","odds":1.82},{"slug":"vistabet","book":"Vistabet","odds":1.82}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"result"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-0.75,"push":"half","model_prob":0.7289,"book_prob":0.7126,"edge":0.0163,"shrunk_edge":0.0123,"odds":1.35,"bookmaker":"Novibet","prices":[{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.35},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.35},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.33},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.32},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.31}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-0.5,"push":"none","model_prob":0.6593,"book_prob":0.6449,"edge":0.0144,"shrunk_edge":0.0108,"odds":1.5,"bookmaker":"Betsson","prices":[{"slug":"betsson","book":"Betsson","odds":1.5},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.49},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.48},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.475},{"slug":"interwetten","book":"Interwetten","odds":1.45},{"slug":"888sport","book":"888Sport","odds":1.444},{"slug":"william-hill","book":"William Hill","odds":1.444}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-1,"push":"full","model_prob":0.815,"book_prob":0.8006,"edge":0.0144,"shrunk_edge":0.0108,"odds":1.21,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.21},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.2},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.19},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.19},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.168}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":1.25,"push":"half","model_prob":0.1853,"book_prob":0.1747,"edge":0.0105,"shrunk_edge":0.0079,"odds":5,"bookmaker":"Unibet","prices":[{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":5},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":4.8},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":4.65},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":4.495}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":0.25,"push":"half","model_prob":0.4296,"book_prob":0.4197,"edge":0.01,"shrunk_edge":0.0075,"odds":2.25,"bookmaker":"Novibet","prices":[{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":2.25},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":2.25},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":2.2},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":2.13},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":2.12}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":1,"push":"full","model_prob":0.2084,"book_prob":0.1986,"edge":0.0099,"shrunk_edge":0.0074,"odds":4.5,"bookmaker":"Unibet","prices":[{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":4.5},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":4.35},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":4.25},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":4.1},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":4}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-1.25,"push":"half","model_prob":0.8345,"book_prob":0.8248,"edge":0.0097,"shrunk_edge":0.0073,"odds":1.18,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.18},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.17},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.15},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.135}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":-1.5,"push":"none","model_prob":0.8503,"book_prob":0.8413,"edge":0.009,"shrunk_edge":0.0068,"odds":1.16,"bookmaker":"Bet365","prices":[{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":1.16},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":1.15},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":1.13},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":1.13},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":1.112}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":0.75,"push":"half","model_prob":0.2964,"book_prob":0.2874,"edge":0.009,"shrunk_edge":0.0067,"odds":3.15,"bookmaker":"Novibet","prices":[{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":3.15},{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":3.1},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":3.1},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":3.1},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":2.932}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"},{"market":"asian_handicap","outcome":"AWAY","line":1.5,"push":"none","model_prob":0.1667,"book_prob":0.1584,"edge":0.0084,"shrunk_edge":0.0063,"odds":5.5,"bookmaker":"Unibet","prices":[{"slug":"unibet","book":"Unibet","odds":5.5},{"slug":"bet365","book":"Bet365","odds":5.25},{"slug":"novibet","book":"Novibet","odds":5.2},{"slug":"1xbet","book":"1xBet","odds":4.9},{"slug":"fonbet","book":"fonbet","odds":4.7}],"kelly":0,"confidence":0.648,"family":"handicap"}],"verdicts":[],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Two sides doing the right things underneath the results, and Stevenage doing a little more of them. Stevenage are trending up: in their last four games they have made clearly better chances than in the games before. Meanwhile, Plymouth Argyle are trending up: in their last four games they have made clearly better chances than in the games before. Whoever makes the better chances on the day takes this one.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5369,"created_at":"2026-10-14T02:15:27Z","event":{"id":224188,"event_date":"2026-10-20T18:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1435,"home_team":"Stevenage","away_team_id":1258,"away_team":"Plymouth Argyle","league_id":86,"league_name":"League One"},"markets":{"match_result":{"prob_home":35.9,"prob_draw":27.9,"prob_away":36.3,"predicted":"A"},"expected_goals":{"home":1.36,"away":1.22},"over_under":{"prob_over_15":73.6,"prob_over_25":50.1,"prob_over_35":29.2},"btts":{"prob_yes":55.5},"score":{"most_likely":"1-1"},"draw_no_bet":{"prob_home":54.7},"corners":{"prob_over_85":65.1,"prob_over_95":53.4,"prob_over_105":42.3}},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":36.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3629,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792455492,"report":{"fetched_at":1792661495,"ht":null,"attendance":null,"highlights":[],"events":[],"players":[],"stats":null,"lineups":null},"colors":{"home":"#ad172b","away":"#0a765e"},"venue":{"name":"Broadhall Way","city":"Stevenage","capacity":7800},"pulled":[],"published":[]}