{"id":224167,"league_id":86,"league":"League One","kickoff":1792236600,"home":"Peterborough United","away":"Burton Albion","home_id":1254,"away_id":1420,"venue_id":721,"rank":5,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.639,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.48,1.28],"read":{"text":"Peterborough United to edge it, with goals","side":"home"},"pass":"Nothing to take on Peterborough United against Burton Albion. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[],"lambda_home":1.4765928770599497,"lambda_away":1.2793840558984417,"corner_rate":10.3,"card_rate":0.106,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.782,"home":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":28883,"name":"Alex Bass","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.872},{"id":28876,"name":"Harley Mills","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.768},{"id":28114,"name":"Josh Feeney","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.698},{"id":28873,"name":"David Okagbue","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.666},{"id":28881,"name":"Carl Johnston","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.564},{"id":28481,"name":"Liam Kelly","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.804},{"id":28869,"name":"Benjamin Woods","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.57},{"id":34117,"name":"Owura Edwards","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.692},{"id":42729,"name":"Chris Conn-Clarke","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.232},{"id":28860,"name":"Bolu Shofowoke","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.617},{"id":28857,"name":"Harry Leonard","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.852},{"id":6020,"name":"Ethan Williams","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.533},{"id":4379,"name":"Harrison Jones","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.501},{"id":28875,"name":"James Dornelly","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.479},{"id":28880,"name":"Lucca Mendonça","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.421},{"id":28864,"name":"Brandon Khela","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.403},{"id":6917,"name":"Harry Ashfield","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.38},{"id":68126,"name":"Danny Ormerod","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.376},{"id":7082,"name":"Thomas O'Connor","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.338},{"id":37577,"name":"Evan Weir","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.261},{"id":67048,"name":"Vernon Masara","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.224},{"id":28863,"name":"Matthew Garbett","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.123},{"id":45598,"name":"Collin Andeng-Ndi","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.04}],"confidence":0.782},"away":{"formation":"3-4-2-1","players":[{"id":33739,"name":"Corey Addai","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.849},{"id":33746,"name":"Jack Armer","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.809},{"id":33718,"name":"Curtis Tilt","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.804},{"id":33744,"name":"Finn Delap","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.771},{"id":15585,"name":"Toby Sibbick","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.659},{"id":7173,"name":"George Evans","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.681},{"id":33823,"name":"Kgagelo Chauke","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.863},{"id":33748,"name":"Charlie Webster","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.855},{"id":28483,"name":"Will Collar","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.554},{"id":29918,"name":"Caylan Vickers","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.662},{"id":33755,"name":"Kyran Lofthouse","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.668},{"id":7085,"name":"Raphael Rodrigues","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.599},{"id":33758,"name":"Sulyman Krubally","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.513},{"id":34096,"name":"Matthew Dennis","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.408},{"id":35196,"name":"Joe Lewis","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.271},{"id":76133,"name":"Gbemi Arubi","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.263},{"id":46475,"name":"Harvey Araujo","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.258},{"id":9986,"name":"Emeka Adeile","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.237},{"id":35486,"name":"Kain Adom","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.235},{"id":42667,"name":"Zac Scutt","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.211},{"id":35489,"name":"Jason Sraha","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.195},{"id":33743,"name":"Kamil Dudek","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.045},{"id":76134,"name":"Jake Kean","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.005}],"confidence":0.841},"unavailable":[]},"people":[{"id":28883,"name":"Alex Bass","side":"home"},{"id":28876,"name":"Harley Mills","side":"home"},{"id":28114,"name":"Josh Feeney","side":"home"},{"id":28873,"name":"David Okagbue","side":"home"},{"id":28881,"name":"Carl Johnston","side":"home"},{"id":28481,"name":"Liam Kelly","side":"home"},{"id":28869,"name":"Benjamin Woods","side":"home"},{"id":34117,"name":"Owura Edwards","side":"home"},{"id":42729,"name":"Chris Conn-Clarke","side":"home"},{"id":28860,"name":"Bolu Shofowoke","side":"home"},{"id":28857,"name":"Harry Leonard","side":"home"},{"id":6020,"name":"Ethan Williams","side":"home"},{"id":4379,"name":"Harrison Jones","side":"home"},{"id":28875,"name":"James Dornelly","side":"home"},{"id":28880,"name":"Lucca Mendonça","side":"home"},{"id":28864,"name":"Brandon Khela","side":"home"},{"id":6917,"name":"Harry Ashfield","side":"home"},{"id":68126,"name":"Danny Ormerod","side":"home"},{"id":7082,"name":"Thomas O'Connor","side":"home"},{"id":37577,"name":"Evan Weir","side":"home"},{"id":67048,"name":"Vernon Masara","side":"home"},{"id":28863,"name":"Matthew Garbett","side":"home"},{"id":45598,"name":"Collin Andeng-Ndi","side":"home"},{"id":28879,"name":"Rio Adebisi","side":"home"},{"id":28882,"name":"Sam Hughes","side":"home"},{"id":209441,"name":"Edward Arthur Chang Fox","side":"home"},{"id":85054,"name":"Noah Freeman","side":"home"},{"id":34130,"name":"Bastian Smith","side":"home"},{"id":36888,"name":"Patryk Sykut","side":"home"},{"id":28871,"name":"Donay O'Brien-Brady","side":"home"},{"id":28866,"name":"Declan Frith","side":"home"},{"id":50521,"name":"Ejiro Abbey","side":"home"},{"id":68655,"name":"Eddie Fox","side":"home"},{"id":33739,"name":"Corey Addai","side":"away"},{"id":33746,"name":"Jack Armer","side":"away"},{"id":33718,"name":"Curtis Tilt","side":"away"},{"id":33744,"name":"Finn Delap","side":"away"},{"id":15585,"name":"Toby Sibbick","side":"away"},{"id":7173,"name":"George Evans","side":"away"},{"id":33823,"name":"Kgagelo Chauke","side":"away"},{"id":33748,"name":"Charlie Webster","side":"away"},{"id":28483,"name":"Will Collar","side":"away"},{"id":29918,"name":"Caylan Vickers","side":"away"},{"id":33755,"name":"Kyran Lofthouse","side":"away"},{"id":7085,"name":"Raphael Rodrigues","side":"away"},{"id":33758,"name":"Sulyman Krubally","side":"away"},{"id":34096,"name":"Matthew Dennis","side":"away"},{"id":35196,"name":"Joe Lewis","side":"away"},{"id":76133,"name":"Gbemi Arubi","side":"away"},{"id":46475,"name":"Harvey Araujo","side":"away"},{"id":9986,"name":"Emeka Adeile","side":"away"},{"id":35486,"name":"Kain Adom","side":"away"},{"id":42667,"name":"Zac Scutt","side":"away"},{"id":35489,"name":"Jason Sraha","side":"away"},{"id":33743,"name":"Kamil Dudek","side":"away"},{"id":76134,"name":"Jake Kean","side":"away"},{"id":28996,"name":"Mark O'Mahony","side":"away"},{"id":217664,"name":"James  Clarke","side":"away"},{"id":33821,"name":"Ciaran Gilligan","side":"away"},{"id":217663,"name":"Daniel Jones","side":"away"},{"id":73650,"name":"Samuel Oyemade","side":"away"},{"id":217662,"name":"Reuben Keller","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":28869,"name":"Benjamin Woods","side":"home","team":"Peterborough United","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":5,"goals":2,"assists":2,"big_chances":3,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":18,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Sheffield Wednesday","kickoff":1788607800,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.16,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":23,"country":0}},{"id":28857,"name":"Harry Leonard","side":"home","team":"Peterborough United","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":12,"starts":12,"goals":6,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":18,"tracked_apps":12,"tracked_starts":12},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Watford","kickoff":1787683500,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"5-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.261,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":78,"country":0}},{"id":33744,"name":"Finn Delap","side":"away","team":"Burton Albion","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":9,"goals":3,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":9},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Cambridge United","kickoff":1788616800,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer"],"importance":0.16,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":179,"country":0}},{"id":29918,"name":"Caylan Vickers","side":"away","team":"Burton Albion","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":7,"starts":7,"goals":1,"assists":2,"big_chances":3,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":16,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":2,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"AFC Wimbledon","kickoff":1788374700,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"4-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.149,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":180,"country":0}}],"extras":null,"notable":[{"id":28997,"name":"Jack Marriott","goals":8,"rank":1},{"id":33742,"name":"Kyle Wootton","goals":7,"rank":2},{"id":28470,"name":"Aaron Collins","goals":6,"rank":3},{"id":29913,"name":"Joe Taylor","goals":6,"rank":4},{"id":6171,"name":"Jamal Lowe","goals":5,"rank":5},{"id":28334,"name":"Nahki Wells","goals":5,"rank":6},{"id":16949,"name":"Aribim Pepple","goals":4,"rank":7},{"id":5519,"name":"Derensili Sanches Fernandes","goals":4,"rank":8},{"id":33737,"name":"Jack Diamond","goals":4,"rank":9},{"id":8976,"name":"Jacob Brown","goals":4,"rank":10},{"id":33501,"name":"Jayden Stockley","goals":4,"rank":11},{"id":33131,"name":"Jaze Kabia","goals":4,"rank":12},{"id":6291,"name":"Mark Harris","goals":4,"rank":13},{"id":36603,"name":"Victor Adeboyejo","goals":4,"rank":14},{"id":33589,"name":"Ben Knight","goals":3,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 11","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":17,"home_wins":8,"draws":5,"away_wins":4,"home_goals":31,"away_goals":18,"avg_total_goals":2.8823529411764706,"home_win_rate":0.47058823529411764,"away_win_rate":0.23529411764705882,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Burton Albion","date":"2026-04-19T12:00:00+00:00","home":"Peterborough United","score":"1-1","event_id":227841,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1420,"home_team_id":1254},{"away":"Peterborough United","date":"2025-10-18T11:30:00+00:00","home":"Burton Albion","score":"0-1","event_id":227430,"away_score":1,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":1254,"home_team_id":1420},{"away":"Peterborough United","date":"2025-01-01T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Burton Albion","score":"2-2","event_id":234497,"away_score":2,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":1254,"home_team_id":1420},{"away":"Burton Albion","date":"2024-12-04T19:45:00+00:00","home":"Peterborough United","score":"0-1","event_id":234428,"away_score":1,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":1420,"home_team_id":1254},{"away":"Peterborough United","date":"2024-03-09T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Burton Albion","score":"1-3","event_id":244219,"away_score":3,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1254,"home_team_id":1420},{"away":"Burton Albion","date":"2023-11-25T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Peterborough United","score":"4-0","event_id":243993,"away_score":0,"home_score":4,"away_team_id":1420,"home_team_id":1254},{"away":"Peterborough United","date":"2023-03-14T19:45:00+00:00","home":"Burton Albion","score":"2-5","event_id":255258,"away_score":5,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":1254,"home_team_id":1420},{"away":"Burton Albion","date":"2022-10-08T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Peterborough United","score":"1-1","event_id":255090,"away_score":1,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":1420,"home_team_id":1254},{"away":"Peterborough United","date":"2021-03-06T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Burton Albion","score":"2-1","event_id":280301,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":1254,"home_team_id":1420},{"away":"Burton Albion","date":"2020-10-27T19:00:00+00:00","home":"Peterborough United","score":"2-2","event_id":279954,"away_score":2,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":1420,"home_team_id":1254}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":1254,"position":20,"played":9,"points":8,"goal_diff":-7,"team_name":"Peterborough United","won":2,"drawn":2,"lost":5,"goals_for":7,"goals_against":14,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":1420,"position":10,"played":10,"points":12,"goal_diff":-2,"team_name":"Burton Albion","won":3,"drawn":3,"lost":4,"goals_for":14,"goals_against":16,"group":null},"size":24},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.83,"record":"1-2-3","goals_for":1.33,"goals_against":1.67,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"none","sequence":"LDDLLW","venue_ppg":0.33},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.83,"record":"1-2-3","goals_for":1,"goals_against":1.83,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"none","sequence":"DLDWLL","venue_ppg":1}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Peterborough United report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.away.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Burton Albion report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.782,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.218,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":35,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":20,"points":8,"games_left":35,"gap_to_leader":11,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":7},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":10,"points":12,"games_left":35,"gap_to_leader":7,"gap_to_safety":4,"gap_to_europe":3},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 0-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.bounce","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Robbie Savage is 5 games into the job at Peterborough United. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Robbie Savage","matches_in_charge":5,"tenure_days":42,"ppm":0.8,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.6,"after_ppm":0.83,"delta":null}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":1}]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Gary Bowyer has 65 matches in charge at Burton Albion, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Gary Bowyer","matches_in_charge":65,"tenure_days":424,"ppm":1.18,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":0.9,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Peterborough United come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.895833333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Burton Albion come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.895833333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.009,"defence":-0.118,"effective_matches":15.8,"shrunk":0.34},"away":{"attack":-0.109,"defence":-0.02,"effective_matches":16.7,"shrunk":0.32}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":53,"shots":13.8,"xg_per_shot":0.126,"corners":5.3,"corners_per_shot":0.388,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.4},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":46,"shots":10.7,"xg_per_shot":0.089,"corners":3.8,"corners_per_shot":0.357,"finishing_vs_xg":0.38},"possession_gap":7},"strength":0.28,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Peterborough United have scored 5 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.4,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Burton Albion have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.38,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.1308138437274424},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5152,"created_at":"2026-10-11T02:15:32Z","event":{"id":224167,"event_date":"2026-10-17T11:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1254,"home_team":"Peterborough United","away_team_id":1420,"away_team":"Burton Albion","league_id":86,"league_name":"League One"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":49.7,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4968,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792037764,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0e68ab","away":"#ba9f56"},"venue":{"name":"Weston Homes Stadium","city":"Peterborough","capacity":15314},"pulled":[],"published":[]}