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Salle","role":"MID","reason":"red_card_suspension","goal_share":0,"importance":0.052,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":17}]},"strength":0.44,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.6},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.7},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.5}]},{"id":"availability.lineup_confirmed","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The starting elevens are confirmed, so selection is known rather than guessed.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"confirmed","changes":null},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.table","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"A cup or a group stage, so there is no league table to read what either side is playing for.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-0, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.bounce","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Juan Carlos Blengio is 1 game into the job at Tigre. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Juan Carlos Blengio","matches_in_charge":1,"tenure_days":8,"ppm":3,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.5,"after_ppm":3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.583,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":5.2}]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Facundo Sava has 31 matches in charge at Sarmiento, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Facundo Sava","matches_in_charge":31,"tenure_days":285,"ppm":1.29,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.4,"after_ppm":1,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Tigre come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.125,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":7.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sarmiento come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.03125,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.018,"defence":0.066,"effective_matches":15.6,"shrunk":0.34},"away":{"attack":0.032,"defence":-0.158,"effective_matches":15.4,"shrunk":0.34}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Tigre average 16 points more possession than Sarmiento, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":52.5,"shots":13.9,"xg_per_shot":0.095,"corners":5.3,"corners_per_shot":0.377,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.32},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":36.1,"shots":11.1,"xg_per_shot":0.105,"corners":3.5,"corners_per_shot":0.316,"finishing_vs_xg":0.25},"possession_gap":16.4},"strength":0.6,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":3.4},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-3.4}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Tigre have scored 4 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.32,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sarmiento are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.25,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"4 yellow cards in this referee's last 1 games, where 5 would be usual in this league, with nobody sent off. — though 1 game is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":1,"yellows_per_match":4,"reds_per_match":0,"league_yellows_per_match":4.68,"league_reds_per_match":0.267,"yellow_ratio":0.86,"red_ratio":0,"sample":1,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":12.6,"temperature_c":25,"description":"cloudy"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.17081000094711934},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":"Sarmiento are in trouble, and not only on results. Sarmiento have been out-created in six of their last ten games. On top of that, they have faced six or more efforts on target in four of their last six games. They are getting opened up. And they shoot plenty but from poor positions: 15 on target from 61 shots in their last six. Until Sarmiento sort that out, they are there to be got at.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7198,"created_at":"2026-11-02T02:15:25Z","event":{"id":223917,"event_date":"2026-11-07T01:00:00Z","status":"1st_half","home_team_id":739,"home_team":"Tigre","away_team_id":4999,"away_team":"Sarmiento","league_id":85,"league_name":"Liga Profesional de Fútbol"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":50.4,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5036,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1794013311,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"live_minute":45,"colors":{"home":"#0b4588","away":"#0c8f38"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio Jose Dellagiovanna","city":"Buenos Aires","capacity":26282},"pulled":[],"published":[]}