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derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Damián Ayude has 31 matches in charge at Barracas Central, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Damián Ayude","matches_in_charge":31,"tenure_days":287,"ppm":1.42,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.1,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.bounce","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sebastian Ariel Romero is 1 game into the job at Racing Club. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Sebastian Ariel Romero","matches_in_charge":1,"tenure_days":609,"ppm":0,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":1.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.583,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3.5}]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Barracas Central come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.854166666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":4.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Racing Club come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.739583333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.054,"defence":0.099,"effective_matches":15.7,"shrunk":0.34},"away":{"attack":-0.002,"defence":-0.096,"effective_matches":16.6,"shrunk":0.33}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":54.4,"shots":13.6,"xg_per_shot":0.086,"corners":6.1,"corners_per_shot":0.448,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.16},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":58.2,"shots":13.9,"xg_per_shot":0.098,"corners":4.9,"corners_per_shot":0.353,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.28},"possession_gap":-3.8},"strength":0.15,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. 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Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.173526829089127},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7204,"created_at":"2026-11-02T02:15:25Z","event":{"id":223906,"event_date":"2026-11-06T18:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":734,"home_team":"Barracas Central","away_team_id":733,"away_team":"Racing Club","league_id":85,"league_name":"Liga Profesional de Fútbol"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":44.6,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4465,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793887754,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#d8121d","away":"#1196cd"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio Claudio Chiqui Tapia","city":"Barracas","capacity":12000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}