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projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.764,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.236,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.table","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"A cup or a group stage, so there is no league table to read what either side is playing for.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Diego Hernán Martínez has 34 matches in charge at Huracán, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Diego Hernán Martínez","matches_in_charge":34,"tenure_days":291,"ppm":1.41,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Diego Dabove has 28 matches in charge at Tigre, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Diego Dabove","matches_in_charge":28,"tenure_days":206,"ppm":1,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.3,"after_ppm":1.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Huracán come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.895833333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":5.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Tigre come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.90625,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.061,"defence":-0.016,"effective_matches":15.9,"shrunk":0.33},"away":{"attack":-0.027,"defence":0.037,"effective_matches":15.4,"shrunk":0.34}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":53,"shots":13.3,"xg_per_shot":0.083,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.358,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.27},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":53.8,"shots":14.2,"xg_per_shot":0.097,"corners":5.8,"corners_per_shot":0.406,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.54},"possession_gap":-0.8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Huracán have scored 3 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.27,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Tigre have scored 7 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.54,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"167 yellow cards in this referee's last 43 games, where 197 would be usual in this league, and 3 reds.","evidence":{"matches":43,"yellows_per_match":3.88,"reds_per_match":0.07,"league_yellows_per_match":4.58,"league_reds_per_match":0.246,"yellow_ratio":0.85,"red_ratio":0.28},"strength":0.137,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":-3.4}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 25 km for Tigre.","evidence":{"travel_km":25},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":13.8,"temperature_c":20,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.1937376525471968},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Two sides doing the right things underneath the results, and Tigre doing a little more of them. Tigre have scored only 10 in their last ten from chances that would usually bring about 14. The goals are coming. As for the other side, Huracán have been out-created in six of their last ten games. And at home, they have made the better chances in four of their last five home games. Whoever makes the better chances on the day takes this one.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6226,"created_at":"2026-10-24T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":223882,"event_date":"2026-10-30T22:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":2352,"home_team":"Huracán","away_team_id":739,"away_team":"Tigre","league_id":85,"league_name":"Liga Profesional de Fútbol"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":44.8,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4481,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793356195,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ed2323","away":"#0b4588"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio Tomas Adolfo Duco","city":"Buenos Aires","capacity":48314},"pulled":[],"published":[]}