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form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.137,"defence":-0.03,"effective_matches":15.8,"shrunk":0.34},"away":{"attack":0.07,"defence":-0.162,"effective_matches":14.8,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":44.4,"shots":14.4,"xg_per_shot":0.112,"corners":4.1,"corners_per_shot":0.283,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.12},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":37.2,"shots":11.3,"xg_per_shot":0.116,"corners":3.3,"corners_per_shot":0.296,"finishing_vs_xg":0.36},"possession_gap":7.3},"strength":0.29,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Gimnasia y Esgrima are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.12,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sarmiento have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.36,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"168 yellow cards in this referee's last 32 games, where 148 would be usual in this league, and 7 reds.","evidence":{"matches":32,"yellows_per_match":5.25,"reds_per_match":0.219,"league_yellows_per_match":4.62,"league_reds_per_match":0.244,"yellow_ratio":1.14,"red_ratio":0.9},"strength":0.124,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":3.1}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":19.2,"temperature_c":16,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.19759890818786438},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Gimnasia should dictate this game as their recent play suggests they are far better than their mediocre results. While Gimnasia has created superior opportunities in four of their last five home matches, Sarmiento struggle as they continue to get opened up at the back. Sarmiento are currently in a downward spiral of form, whereas Gimnasia are clearly trending upward with more creative momentum. Losing their primary attacking threat to a hamstring injury will force Gimnasia to find new ways to score, yet they remain dominant in chance creation. Even though their opponent travels well and relies on a prolific scorer, the defensive gaps in the visiting side will prove fatal. Sustained pressure determines the outcome.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5550,"created_at":"2026-10-17T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":223851,"event_date":"2026-10-23T21:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":4998,"home_team":"Gimnasia y Esgrima","away_team_id":4999,"away_team":"Sarmiento","league_id":85,"league_name":"Liga Profesional de Fútbol"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":50.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5033,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792767208,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0a4e75","away":"#0c8f38"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo","city":"La Plata","capacity":30973},"pulled":[],"published":[]}