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them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.927083333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.156,"defence":-0.119,"effective_matches":15,"shrunk":0.35},"away":{"attack":-0.02,"defence":0.045,"effective_matches":14.9,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":46.5,"shots":13.7,"xg_per_shot":0.105,"corners":4.3,"corners_per_shot":0.311,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.27},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":49.8,"shots":13.8,"xg_per_shot":0.101,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.352,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.64},"possession_gap":-3.3},"strength":0.133,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Independiente Rivadavia have scored 3 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.27,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Tigre have scored 8 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.64,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"173 yellow cards in this referee's last 39 games, where 179 would be usual in this league, and 12 reds.","evidence":{"matches":39,"yellows_per_match":4.44,"reds_per_match":0.308,"league_yellows_per_match":4.59,"league_reds_per_match":0.264,"yellow_ratio":0.97,"red_ratio":1.17},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":17.3,"temperature_c":25,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.23242142615661424},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5008,"created_at":"2026-10-11T02:15:30Z","event":{"id":223823,"event_date":"2026-10-17T20:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":774,"home_team":"Independiente Rivadavia","away_team_id":739,"away_team":"Tigre","league_id":85,"league_name":"Liga Profesional de Fútbol"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":52.8,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5281,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792037602,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#2c1b73","away":"#0b4588"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio Bautista Gargantini","city":"Mendoza","capacity":24000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}