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schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.111111111111111,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":6.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Al-Shabab come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.881944444444445,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":5.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.25,"defence":0.022,"effective_matches":8.2,"shrunk":0.49},"away":{"attack":0.136,"defence":-0.01,"effective_matches":14.6,"shrunk":0.35}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":45.8,"shots":9.4,"xg_per_shot":0.086,"corners":3.8,"corners_per_shot":0.408,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.22},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":50.9,"shots":14.6,"xg_per_shot":0.125,"corners":5.7,"corners_per_shot":0.387,"finishing_vs_xg":0.09},"possession_gap":-5.1},"strength":0.204,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Abha are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.22,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Al-Shabab are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.09,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Al-Shabab travel 835 km for this fixture.","evidence":{"travel_km":835},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.1}]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":9.8,"temperature_c":18,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.07491980164313464},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was home draw-no-bet at 2.50, where the edge of 1.5 points does not clear the 8.0 needed against a 9.0% margin.","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6886,"created_at":"2026-10-30T02:15:14Z","event":{"id":222875,"event_date":"2026-11-05T15:10:00Z","status":"postponed","home_team_id":2415,"home_team":"Abha","away_team_id":264,"away_team":"Al-Shabab","league_id":17,"league_name":"Saudi Pro League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":49.8,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.498,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":222875,"event_date":"2026-11-05T15:10:00Z","home_team":"Abha","away_team":"Al-Shabab","polymarket_event_id":"1291372","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":35114.97988,"volume_1wk":35114.97988,"volume_1mo":35114.97988,"volume_1yr":35114.97988,"open_interest":29790.884299,"liquidity_clob":18862.37049,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.005,"best_ask":0.021,"change_1d":-0.167,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.095,"Abha Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.927,"Abha Saudi Club 0 - 1 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.095,"Abha Saudi Club 0 - 2 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.095,"Abha Saudi Club 0 - 3 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.05,"Abha Saudi Club 0 - 4 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.081,"Abha Saudi Club 0 - 5 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.08,"Abha Saudi Club 1 - 0 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.088,"Abha Saudi Club 1 - 1 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.085,"Abha Saudi Club 1 - 2 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.115,"Abha Saudi Club 1 - 3 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.05,"Abha Saudi Club 1 - 4 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.0875,"Abha Saudi Club 1 - 5 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.095,"Abha Saudi Club 2 - 0 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.089,"Abha Saudi Club 2 - 1 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.08,"Abha Saudi Club 2 - 2 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.135,"Abha Saudi Club 2 - 3 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.07,"Abha Saudi Club 2 - 4 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.0695,"Abha Saudi Club 2 - 5 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.055,"Abha Saudi Club 3 - 0 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.0505,"Abha Saudi Club 3 - 1 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.0505,"Abha Saudi Club 3 - 2 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.0505,"Abha Saudi Club 3 - 3 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.0505,"Abha Saudi Club 3 - 4 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.04,"Abha Saudi Club 3 - 5 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.1,"Abha Saudi Club 4 - 0 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.105,"Abha Saudi Club 4 - 1 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.1,"Abha Saudi Club 4 - 2 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.05,"Abha Saudi Club 4 - 3 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.095,"Abha Saudi Club 4 - 4 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.055,"Abha Saudi Club 4 - 5 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.088,"Abha Saudi Club 5 - 0 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.08,"Abha Saudi Club 5 - 1 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.1,"Abha Saudi Club 5 - 2 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.045,"Abha Saudi Club 5 - 3 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.08,"Abha Saudi Club 5 - 4 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.0955,"Abha Saudi Club 5 - 5 Al Shabab Saudi Club":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-11-03T16:27:22Z"}},"computed_at":1793887462,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#173968","away":"#a6a38c"},"venue":{"name":"Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium","city":"Abha","capacity":20000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}