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Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Al-Shabab are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.09,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Al-Ahli are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.25,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Al-Ahli travel 836 km for this fixture.","evidence":{"travel_km":836},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.1}]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":12.2,"temperature_c":26,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.037356055939751866},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Al-Ahli should edge this clash despite their poor away form. Both sides come into this fixture trending upward by creating clearly better chances over their last four outings than they managed previously, meaning the underlying football of twelfth-placed Al-Shabab is better than their league position suggests. Fifth-placed Al-Ahli have won five of their last six and dominate opponents below them in the table, yet their visitors struggle heavily on the road. Al-Shabab deploy a four-four-two formation with Roger Martínez and Ricardo Mathias leading the line, while Ivan Toney spearheads the opposing attack. Ultimately, Toney's red-hot streak of scoring in five straight matches will decide the outcome.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6251,"created_at":"2026-10-24T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":222873,"event_date":"2026-10-30T18:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":264,"home_team":"Al-Shabab","away_team_id":258,"away_team":"Al-Ahli","league_id":17,"league_name":"Saudi Pro League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":52.1,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5213,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":222873,"event_date":"2026-10-30T18:00:00Z","home_team":"Al-Shabab","away_team":"Al-Ahli","polymarket_event_id":"1202262","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":1141.339951,"volume_1wk":1282.6399509999999,"volume_1mo":1282.6399509999999,"volume_1yr":1282.6399509999999,"open_interest":1479.464454,"liquidity_clob":15704.5204,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.22,"best_ask":0.24,"change_1d":-0.04,"change_1wk":-0.03,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.165,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.04,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 0 - 1 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.08,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 0 - 2 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.0755,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 0 - 3 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.0505,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 0 - 4 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.021,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 0 - 5 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.085,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 1 - 0 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.0445,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 1 - 1 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.1,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 1 - 2 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.1,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 1 - 3 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.064,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 1 - 4 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.0245,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 1 - 5 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.14,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 2 - 0 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.0285,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 2 - 1 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.06,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 2 - 2 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.06,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 2 - 3 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.0435,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 2 - 4 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.019,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 2 - 5 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.145,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 3 - 0 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.0115,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 3 - 1 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.0245,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 3 - 2 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.0265,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 3 - 3 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.018,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 3 - 4 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.2225,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 3 - 5 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.185,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 4 - 0 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.128,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 4 - 1 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.1195,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 4 - 2 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.0255,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 4 - 3 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.181,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 4 - 4 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.049,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 4 - 5 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.1795,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 5 - 0 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.155,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 5 - 1 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.165,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 5 - 2 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.0345,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 5 - 3 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.17,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 5 - 4 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.174,"Al Shabab Saudi Club 5 - 5 Al Ahli Saudi Club":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-10-30T07:27:15Z"}},"computed_at":1793366888,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#a6a38c","away":null},"venue":{"name":"SHG Arena","city":"Riyadh","capacity":13536},"pulled":[],"published":[]}