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Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Al-Nassr have scored 7 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.55,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Al-Kholood have scored 7 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.6,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":12.4,"temperature_c":25,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.049557386595934165},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Al-Nassr should dictate play against an Al-Kholood side that struggles to turn good football into points. The visitors are 9th, but their play is more impressive than the table suggests. They failed to win four of the last ten games where they produced superior openings. However, they are now sliding: their last four games have been their worst for making and allowing chances. By contrast, 2nd place Al-Nassr are different at home, creating better opportunities in all of their last five home games. They are masters of control, often limiting opponents to two or fewer shots on goal. Losing a regular starter until 20 January tests their depth, but the finishing of João Félix and Cristiano Ronaldo will decide it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6198,"created_at":"2026-10-23T02:15:13Z","event":{"id":222871,"event_date":"2026-10-29T18:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":267,"home_team":"Al-Nassr","away_team_id":261,"away_team":"Al-Kholood","league_id":17,"league_name":"Saudi Pro League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":77.7,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.7768,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":222871,"event_date":"2026-10-29T18:00:00Z","home_team":"Al-Nassr","away_team":"Al-Kholood","polymarket_event_id":"1196952","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":4874.709798,"volume_1wk":5287.331886,"volume_1mo":5287.331886,"volume_1yr":5287.331886,"open_interest":4975.547094999999,"liquidity_clob":38963.602,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.79,"best_ask":0.81,"change_1d":0.005,"change_1wk":0.09,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.12,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.028,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 0 - 1 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.0225,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 0 - 2 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.008,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 0 - 3 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.003,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 0 - 4 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.046,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 0 - 5 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.095,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 1 - 0 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.09,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 1 - 1 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.0565,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 1 - 2 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.0225,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 1 - 3 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.006,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 1 - 4 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.025,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 1 - 5 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.143,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 2 - 0 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.12,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 2 - 1 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.1,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 2 - 2 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.0315,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 2 - 3 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.0075,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 2 - 4 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.0135,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 2 - 5 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.0445,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 3 - 0 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.105,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 3 - 1 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.085,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 3 - 2 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.0335,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 3 - 3 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.0065,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 3 - 4 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.0385,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 3 - 5 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.215,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 4 - 0 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.06,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 4 - 1 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.04,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 4 - 2 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.0185,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 4 - 3 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.1405,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 4 - 4 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.0335,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 4 - 5 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.1445,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 5 - 0 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.028,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 5 - 1 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.023,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 5 - 2 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.0115,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 5 - 3 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.12,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 5 - 4 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.135,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 5 - 5 Al Kholood Saudi Club":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-10-29T10:57:15Z"}},"computed_at":1793281250,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#860b2d"},"venue":{"name":"Al-Awwal Park","city":"Riyadh","capacity":26000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}