{"id":222866,"league_id":17,"league":"Saudi Pro League","kickoff":1793363400,"home":"Abha","away":"Al-Ittihad","home_id":2415,"away_id":271,"venue_id":246,"rank":4,"status":"halftime","provisional":false,"lineup_status":"confirmed","confidence":0.684,"score":null,"live_score":[0,0],"lambda":[1.03,1.73],"read":{"text":"Al-Ittihad to win, with goals","side":"away"},"pass":"Passing on Abha v Al-Ittihad. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[{"id":"availability.lineup_confirmed","section":"§3.1","note":"The starting elevens are confirmed. Abha have made four changes from the side expected, with Safwan Aljohani, Abdulbaset Hindi and Nabil Fekir out of the eleven. Al-Ittihad have made three changes from the side expected, with Jan-Carlo Simić, Dion Lopy and Ahmed Al-Ghamdi out of the eleven."},{"id":"form.home","section":"§2.1","note":"Abha have taken 0.17 points a game from their last 6 (0W 1D 5L), scoring 0.3 and conceding 1.3, and 0.00 a game at home."},{"id":"form.away","section":"§2.1","note":"Al-Ittihad have taken 2.50 points a game from their last 6 (5W 0D 1L), scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.2, and 2.00 a game on the road."}],"lambda_home":1.0310693183575457,"lambda_away":1.7257721068913185,"corner_rate":9.52,"card_rate":0.198,"lineups":{"status":"confirmed","confidence":null,"home":{"formation":"4-5-1","players":[{"id":2091,"name":"Donovan Léon","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":107856,"name":"Mohammed Al-Dosari","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":22239,"name":"Jurien Gaari","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":23887,"name":"Abdullah Al-Fahad","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":8414,"name":"Mohammed Al-Zaid","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":2076,"name":"Alimami Gory","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":139889,"name":"Nasser Al-Daajani","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":8216,"name":"Loreintz Rosier","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":118966,"name":"Firas Al-Ghamdi","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":8001,"name":"Abdulkarim Darisi","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":8932,"name":"Keshim Al-Qahtani","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":118983,"name":"Abdulrahman Al Bouq","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":8033,"name":"Abdulbaset Hindi","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":118988,"name":"Safwan Aljohani","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":7958,"name":"Mateo Borrell","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":8039,"name":"Majed Dawran","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":98322,"name":"Bader Al Mutairi","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":12186,"name":"Amar Hamed Al Yuhaybi","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":7975,"name":"Faisal Al-Sibyani","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":139888,"name":"Kamil Boumedmed","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":null}],"confidence":null},"away":{"formation":"4-3-3","players":[{"id":8150,"name":"Predrag Rajković","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":8151,"name":"Muhannad Shanqeeti","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":8282,"name":"Saad Al-Mousa","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":8152,"name":"Danilo Pereira","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":7935,"name":"Faris Abdi","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":8035,"name":"Mukhtar Ali","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":8230,"name":"Houssem Aouar","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":3788,"name":"Richard Ríos","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":8038,"name":"Georginio Wijnaldum","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":3416,"name":"Youssef En-Nesyri","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":8159,"name":"Steven Bergwijn","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":8297,"name":"Mohammed Al-Absi","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":8231,"name":"Mohammed Barnawi","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":8319,"name":"Muath Faqeehi","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":8167,"name":"Ahmed Al-Julaydan","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":8377,"name":"Mohammed Fallatah","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":8158,"name":"Ahmed Al-Ghamdi","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":2241,"name":"George Ilenikhena","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":7303,"name":"Marwan Al-Sahafi","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":58925,"name":"Suhaib Al Hawsawi","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":null}],"confidence":null},"unavailable":[{"id":8161,"name":"Hamed Al-Ghamdi","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury"},{"id":8153,"name":"Hassan Kadesh","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Knock Injury"}]},"people":[{"id":2091,"name":"Donovan Léon","side":"home"},{"id":107856,"name":"Mohammed Al-Dosari","side":"home"},{"id":22239,"name":"Jurien Gaari","side":"home"},{"id":23887,"name":"Abdullah Al-Fahad","side":"home"},{"id":8414,"name":"Mohammed Al-Zaid","side":"home"},{"id":2076,"name":"Alimami Gory","side":"home"},{"id":139889,"name":"Nasser Al-Daajani","side":"home"},{"id":8216,"name":"Loreintz Rosier","side":"home"},{"id":118966,"name":"Firas Al-Ghamdi","side":"home"},{"id":8001,"name":"Abdulkarim Darisi","side":"home"},{"id":8932,"name":"Keshim Al-Qahtani","side":"home"},{"id":118983,"name":"Abdulrahman Al Bouq","side":"home"},{"id":8033,"name":"Abdulbaset Hindi","side":"home"},{"id":118988,"name":"Safwan Aljohani","side":"home"},{"id":7958,"name":"Mateo Borrell","side":"home"},{"id":8039,"name":"Majed Dawran","side":"home"},{"id":98322,"name":"Bader Al Mutairi","side":"home"},{"id":12186,"name":"Amar Hamed Al Yuhaybi","side":"home"},{"id":7975,"name":"Faisal Al-Sibyani","side":"home"},{"id":139888,"name":"Kamil Boumedmed","side":"home"},{"id":88471,"name":"Khaled Al Shamrani","side":"home"},{"id":139895,"name":"Moayad Mohammed","side":"home"},{"id":55646,"name":"Abdou Diallo","side":"home"},{"id":7985,"name":"Nawaf Al Ghulaimish","side":"home"},{"id":1358,"name":"Michy Batshuayi","side":"home"},{"id":7947,"name":"Mustafa Malaika","side":"home"},{"id":8215,"name":"Basil Yousef Al-Sayyali","side":"home"},{"id":116794,"name":"Nabil Fekir","side":"home"},{"id":15403,"name":"Georges-Kévin N'Koudou","side":"home"},{"id":139892,"name":"Mohammed Al-Hamsal","side":"home"},{"id":139891,"name":"Ali Mubarki","side":"home"},{"id":8150,"name":"Predrag Rajković","side":"away"},{"id":8151,"name":"Muhannad Shanqeeti","side":"away"},{"id":8282,"name":"Saad Al-Mousa","side":"away"},{"id":8152,"name":"Danilo Pereira","side":"away"},{"id":7935,"name":"Faris Abdi","side":"away"},{"id":8035,"name":"Mukhtar Ali","side":"away"},{"id":8230,"name":"Houssem Aouar","side":"away"},{"id":3788,"name":"Richard Ríos","side":"away"},{"id":8038,"name":"Georginio Wijnaldum","side":"away"},{"id":3416,"name":"Youssef En-Nesyri","side":"away"},{"id":8159,"name":"Steven Bergwijn","side":"away"},{"id":8297,"name":"Mohammed Al-Absi","side":"away"},{"id":8231,"name":"Mohammed Barnawi","side":"away"},{"id":8319,"name":"Muath Faqeehi","side":"away"},{"id":8167,"name":"Ahmed Al-Julaydan","side":"away"},{"id":8377,"name":"Mohammed Fallatah","side":"away"},{"id":8158,"name":"Ahmed Al-Ghamdi","side":"away"},{"id":2241,"name":"George Ilenikhena","side":"away"},{"id":7303,"name":"Marwan Al-Sahafi","side":"away"},{"id":58925,"name":"Suhaib Al Hawsawi","side":"away"},{"id":7774,"name":"Jan-Carlo Simić","side":"away"},{"id":8153,"name":"Hassan Kadesh","side":"away"},{"id":8164,"name":"Ahmed Sharahili","side":"away"},{"id":8169,"name":"Saleh Al-Shehri","side":"away"},{"id":8330,"name":"Osama Al-Mermesh","side":"away"},{"id":4761,"name":"Roger Fernandes","side":"away"},{"id":7796,"name":"Mahamadou Doumbia","side":"away"},{"id":30625,"name":"Farhah Ali Alshamrani","side":"away"},{"id":26507,"name":"Dion Lopy","side":"away"},{"id":8069,"name":"Rakan Kaabi","side":"away"},{"id":8161,"name":"Hamed Al-Ghamdi","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":2076,"name":"Alimami Gory","side":"home","team":"Abha","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"RW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":9,"starts":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":12,"tracked_apps":9,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Al-Qadsiah","kickoff":1792156500,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.256,"country":null,"load":{"games":3,"minutes":143,"country":0}},{"id":8932,"name":"Keshim Al-Qahtani","side":"home","team":"Abha","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":9,"starts":4,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":12,"tracked_apps":9,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Al-Khaleej","kickoff":1787673900,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-1","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.126,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":32,"country":0}},{"id":8161,"name":"Hamed Al-Ghamdi","side":"away","team":"Al-Ittihad","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"out","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","expected_return":"2027-04-20","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":8153,"name":"Hassan Kadesh","side":"away","team":"Al-Ittihad","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"LB","status":"out","reason":"Knock Injury","expected_return":"2026-10-31","season":{"apps":7,"starts":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Al-Qadsiah","kickoff":1787335200,"goals":0,"assists":0,"score":"1-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.038,"country":{"team":"Saudi Arabia","apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":null},{"id":3416,"name":"Youssef En-Nesyri","side":"away","team":"Al-Ittihad","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":6,"goals":7,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":6,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Al Faisaly","kickoff":1789141500,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"3-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","best_performer","in_form"],"importance":0.284,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":62,"country":0}},{"id":8038,"name":"Georginio Wijnaldum","side":"away","team":"Al-Ittihad","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":4,"starts":2,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":14,"tracked_apps":4,"tracked_starts":2},"recent":{"apps":4,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Diriyah","kickoff":1792769400,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.028,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":166,"country":0}}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":2415,"away":271},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":0,"d":2,"l":8},"below":null},"away":{"above":{"w":2,"d":0,"l":1},"below":{"w":5,"d":2,"l":0}}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":4635,"name":"Teo Pirija","vs":null},"away":{"id":1296,"name":"Jens Wissing","vs":null}},"best_xi":[{"id":8150,"name":"Predrag Rajković","team_id":271,"position":"G","matches":9,"goals":0,"assists":0}],"players":{"2076":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Paris FC","fee":2000000,"at":1785801600}},"3416":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Fenerbahçe","fee":15000000,"at":1769990400}},"8153":{"caps":31,"goals":2,"country":"Saudi Arabia","signed":null}}},"notable":[{"id":8120,"name":"Ivan Toney","goals":13,"rank":1},{"id":7880,"name":"Cristiano Ronaldo","goals":8,"rank":2},{"id":850,"name":"Tijjani Reijnders","goals":8,"rank":3},{"id":8140,"name":"Mateo Retegui","goals":7,"rank":4},{"id":3416,"name":"Youssef En-Nesyri","goals":7,"rank":5},{"id":7942,"name":"Alexandre Lacazette","goals":6,"rank":6},{"id":1219,"name":"Francisco Trincão","goals":6,"rank":7},{"id":452,"name":"Gabriel Martinelli","goals":6,"rank":8},{"id":2241,"name":"George Ilenikhena","goals":6,"rank":9},{"id":8296,"name":"Julián Quiñones","goals":6,"rank":10},{"id":27310,"name":"Julien Domingues","goals":6,"rank":11},{"id":28536,"name":"Alexandre Mendy","goals":5,"rank":12},{"id":7877,"name":"Ângelo","goals":5,"rank":13},{"id":8280,"name":"Joshua King","goals":5,"rank":14},{"id":7997,"name":"Sergej Milinković-Savić","goals":5,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 12","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":10,"home_wins":4,"draws":0,"away_wins":6,"home_goals":13,"away_goals":25,"avg_total_goals":3.8,"home_win_rate":0.4,"away_win_rate":0.6,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Al-Ittihad","date":"2024-05-03T18:00:00+00:00","home":"Abha","score":"3-1","event_id":248409,"away_score":1,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":271,"home_team_id":2415},{"away":"Abha","date":"2023-11-10T18:00:00+00:00","home":"Al-Ittihad","score":"4-2","event_id":248253,"away_score":2,"home_score":4,"away_team_id":2415,"home_team_id":271},{"away":"Abha","date":"2023-05-08T18:30:00+00:00","home":"Al-Ittihad","score":"4-0","event_id":259182,"away_score":0,"home_score":4,"away_team_id":2415,"home_team_id":271},{"away":"Al-Ittihad","date":"2022-12-31T12:30:00+00:00","home":"Abha","score":"1-2","event_id":259062,"away_score":2,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":271,"home_team_id":2415},{"away":"Al-Ittihad","date":"2022-02-06T13:05:00+00:00","home":"Abha","score":"0-4","event_id":272521,"away_score":4,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":271,"home_team_id":2415},{"away":"Abha","date":"2021-09-11T17:35:00+00:00","home":"Al-Ittihad","score":"6-1","event_id":272391,"away_score":1,"home_score":6,"away_team_id":2415,"home_team_id":271},{"away":"Al-Ittihad","date":"2021-05-20T16:15:00+00:00","home":"Abha","score":"1-2","event_id":283648,"away_score":2,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":271,"home_team_id":2415},{"away":"Abha","date":"2021-01-14T17:10:00+00:00","home":"Al-Ittihad","score":"0-1","event_id":283527,"away_score":1,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":2415,"home_team_id":271},{"away":"Al-Ittihad","date":"2020-08-04T16:15:00+00:00","home":"Abha","score":"2-1","event_id":294991,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":271,"home_team_id":2415},{"away":"Abha","date":"2019-10-27T15:25:00+00:00","home":"Al-Ittihad","score":"1-2","event_id":294862,"away_score":2,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":2415,"home_team_id":271}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":2415,"position":18,"played":10,"points":2,"goal_diff":-12,"team_name":"Abha","won":0,"drawn":2,"lost":8,"goals_for":6,"goals_against":18,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":271,"position":4,"played":10,"points":23,"goal_diff":10,"team_name":"Al-Ittihad","won":7,"drawn":2,"lost":1,"goals_for":20,"goals_against":10,"group":null},"size":18},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":0.17,"record":"0-1-5","goals_for":0.33,"goals_against":1.33,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"lost 3","sequence":"LLDLLL","venue_ppg":0},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":2.5,"record":"5-0-1","goals_for":2.5,"goals_against":1.17,"clean_sheets":1,"streak":"none","sequence":"WWWLWW","venue_ppg":2}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Abha report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Al-Ittihad are without 2 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":2,"measured":1,"combined_goal_share":0,"combined_importance":0.038,"players":[{"player":"Hassan Kadesh","role":"DEF","reason":"Knock Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.038,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Hamed Al-Ghamdi","role":"MID","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":11}]},"strength":0.15,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.3},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.4},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.2}]},{"id":"availability.lineup_confirmed","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The starting elevens are confirmed. Abha have made four changes from the side expected, with Safwan Aljohani, Abdulbaset Hindi and Nabil Fekir out of the eleven. Al-Ittihad have made three changes from the side expected, with Jan-Carlo Simić, Dion Lopy and Ahmed Al-Ghamdi out of the eleven.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"confirmed","changes":{"home":{"n":4,"out":["Safwan Aljohani","Abdulbaset Hindi","Nabil Fekir","Michy Batshuayi"],"in":["Mohammed Al-Zaid","Nasser Al-Daajani","Loreintz Rosier","Keshim Al-Qahtani"]},"away":{"n":3,"out":["Jan-Carlo Simić","Dion Lopy","Ahmed Al-Ghamdi"],"in":["Saad Al-Mousa","Richard Ríos","Georginio Wijnaldum"]}}},"strength":0.8,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":22,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":18,"points":2,"games_left":22,"gap_to_leader":26,"gap_to_safety":-6,"gap_to_europe":17},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":4,"points":23,"games_left":22,"gap_to_leader":5,"gap_to_safety":15,"gap_to_europe":-4},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"THIN","note":"Abha's manager is identified but the tenure has no match record attached.","evidence":{"manager":"Teo Pirija"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Jens Wissing is 10 games into the job at Al-Ittihad, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Jens Wissing","matches_in_charge":10,"tenure_days":315,"ppm":2.3,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.7,"after_ppm":2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Al-Ittihad come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.875,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":4,"days_rest":6.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.236,"defence":0.001,"effective_matches":7.6,"shrunk":0.51},"away":{"attack":0.192,"defence":0.071,"effective_matches":14.2,"shrunk":0.36}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; Abha work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":46.6,"shots":9.6,"xg_per_shot":0.085,"corners":3.8,"corners_per_shot":0.396,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.23},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":50.6,"shots":15.3,"xg_per_shot":0.139,"corners":4.3,"corners_per_shot":0.278,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.12},"possession_gap":-4},"strength":0.159,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Abha are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.23,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Al-Ittihad are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.12,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 526 km for Al-Ittihad.","evidence":{"travel_km":526},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":20.7,"temperature_c":24,"description":"cloudy"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.037356055939751866},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Al-Ittihad should take the points here, but their recent form flatters them completely. They give up chances at an alarming rate, yet brilliant keeping and sheer fortune have bailed them out while they climb to fourth. Meanwhile, the basement dwellers are desperate, though their underlying numbers are dreadful and they lose constantly to teams above them. The away side still boasts a lethal attack led by the top scorer netting six times in five games, and with Abdulkarim Darisi and Michy Batshuayi leading the line for the hosts, defensive frailties will decide it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6265,"created_at":"2026-10-24T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":222866,"event_date":"2026-10-30T12:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":2415,"home_team":"Abha","away_team_id":271,"away_team":"Al-Ittihad","league_id":17,"league_name":"Saudi Pro League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":62.2,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6223,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":222866,"event_date":"2026-10-30T12:30:00Z","home_team":"Abha","away_team":"Al-Ittihad","polymarket_event_id":"1282811","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":2235.999999,"liquidity_clob":132124.9261,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.13,"best_ask":0.14,"change_1d":-0.03,"change_1wk":-0.125,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":[{"price":0.045,"player":"Nasser Al Dajani"},{"price":0.1,"player":"Kheshim Al Qahtani"},{"price":0.085,"player":"Abdulkarim Darisi"},{"price":0.0355,"player":"Mohammed Zaid"},{"price":0.045,"player":"Loreintz Rosier"},{"price":0.0255,"player":"Mohammed Al Dossary"},{"price":0.05,"player":"Feras Al Ghamdi"},{"price":0.5,"player":"Alimami Gory"},{"price":0.0205,"player":"Juriën Gaari"},{"price":0.0305,"player":"Abdullah Al Fahad"},{"price":0.19,"player":"Steven Bergwijn"},{"price":0.495,"player":"Danilo Pereira"},{"price":0.165,"player":"Houssem Aouar"},{"price":0.045,"player":"Mukhtar Ali"},{"price":0.5,"player":"Youssef En-Nesyri"},{"price":0.155,"player":"Georginio Wijnaldum"},{"price":0.045,"player":"Muhannad Al Shanqiti"},{"price":0.0305,"player":"Faris Abdi"},{"price":0.495,"player":"Richard Ríos"},{"price":0.0305,"player":"Saad Al Mosa"}],"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.155,"Abha Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.0385,"Abha Saudi Club 0 - 1 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.095,"Abha Saudi Club 0 - 2 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.105,"Abha Saudi Club 0 - 3 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.075,"Abha Saudi Club 0 - 4 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.0315,"Abha Saudi Club 0 - 5 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.04,"Abha Saudi Club 1 - 0 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.035,"Abha Saudi Club 1 - 1 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.08,"Abha Saudi Club 1 - 2 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.105,"Abha Saudi Club 1 - 3 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.075,"Abha Saudi Club 1 - 4 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.0335,"Abha Saudi Club 1 - 5 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.03,"Abha Saudi Club 2 - 0 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.0175,"Abha Saudi Club 2 - 1 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.0405,"Abha Saudi Club 2 - 2 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.0475,"Abha Saudi Club 2 - 3 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.0375,"Abha Saudi Club 2 - 4 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.017,"Abha Saudi Club 2 - 5 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.035,"Abha Saudi Club 3 - 0 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.0055,"Abha Saudi Club 3 - 1 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.0115,"Abha Saudi Club 3 - 2 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.014,"Abha Saudi Club 3 - 3 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.011,"Abha Saudi Club 3 - 4 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.145,"Abha Saudi Club 3 - 5 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.21,"Abha Saudi Club 4 - 0 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.005,"Abha Saudi Club 4 - 1 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.131,"Abha Saudi Club 4 - 2 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.0485,"Abha Saudi Club 4 - 3 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.155,"Abha Saudi Club 4 - 4 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.0345,"Abha Saudi Club 4 - 5 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.162,"Abha Saudi Club 5 - 0 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.005,"Abha Saudi Club 5 - 1 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.25,"Abha Saudi Club 5 - 2 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.045,"Abha Saudi Club 5 - 3 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.135,"Abha Saudi Club 5 - 4 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.25,"Abha Saudi Club 5 - 5 Al Ittihad Saudi Club":0.04},"updated_at":"2026-10-30T12:27:12Z"}},"computed_at":1793363249,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"live_minute":45,"colors":{"home":"#173968","away":"#cdc411"},"venue":{"name":"Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium","city":"Abha","capacity":20000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}