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Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Al-Ahli have scored 4 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.3,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Al-Khaleej are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.23,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Al-Khaleej travel 1223 km for this fixture.","evidence":{"travel_km":1223},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.8},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.8}]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":8.3,"temperature_c":26,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.07964140288825193},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Al-Ahli will control this match and comfortably beat Al-Khaleej at home. While Al-Ahli have improved by creating much better opportunities during their recent four matches, Al-Khaleej have struggled to overcome teams sitting above them in the table. Al-Ahli are formidable on their own turf and dominate when facing lower-ranked opponents, winning six of their last seven such games. Although the visitors rely on a forward who has scored in each of their last four matches, they lack the quality to handle the hosts. With a star forward in the team of the season leading the 4-2-3-1, Al-Ahli will dictate the tempo. The clinical finishing of the hosts will decide the outcome.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5470,"created_at":"2026-10-16T02:15:21Z","event":{"id":222858,"event_date":"2026-10-22T18:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":258,"home_team":"Al-Ahli","away_team_id":265,"away_team":"Al-Khaleej","league_id":17,"league_name":"Saudi Pro League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":71.2,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.7116,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":222858,"event_date":"2026-10-22T18:00:00Z","home_team":"Al-Ahli","away_team":"Al-Khaleej","polymarket_event_id":"1156272","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":2240.682958,"volume_1wk":2534.528414,"volume_1mo":2534.528414,"volume_1yr":2534.528414,"open_interest":2720.3388149999996,"liquidity_clob":19343.3784,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.76,"best_ask":0.77,"change_1d":0.025,"change_1wk":0.055,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.25,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.0345,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 0 - 1 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.025,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 0 - 2 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.009,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 0 - 3 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.003,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 0 - 4 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.057,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 0 - 5 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.275,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 1 - 0 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.095,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 1 - 1 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.07,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 1 - 2 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.026,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 1 - 3 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.008,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 1 - 4 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.0255,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 1 - 5 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.285,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 2 - 0 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.12,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 2 - 1 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.1,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 2 - 2 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.038,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 2 - 3 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.009,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 2 - 4 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.0255,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 2 - 5 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.045,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 3 - 0 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.1,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 3 - 1 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.08,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 3 - 2 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.0315,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 3 - 3 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.009,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 3 - 4 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.029,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 3 - 5 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.205,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 4 - 0 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.048,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 4 - 1 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.0365,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 4 - 2 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.0225,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 4 - 3 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.195,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 4 - 4 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.0285,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 4 - 5 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.21,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 5 - 0 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.0265,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 5 - 1 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.0255,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 5 - 2 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.016,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 5 - 3 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.25,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 5 - 4 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.215,"Al Ahli Saudi Club 5 - 5 Al Khaleej Saudi Club":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-10-22T04:27:15Z"}},"computed_at":1792658016,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#0a7645"},"venue":{"name":"Alinma Stadium","city":"Jeddah","capacity":64200},"pulled":[],"published":[]}