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areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":8,"possession":48.1,"shots":7.3,"xg_per_shot":0.126,"corners":2.1,"corners_per_shot":0.294,"finishing_vs_xg":0.08},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":55.5,"shots":14.9,"xg_per_shot":0.104,"corners":7.7,"corners_per_shot":0.517,"finishing_vs_xg":0.44},"possession_gap":-7.4},"strength":0.294,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Al Faisaly are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.08,"matches":8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Al-Nassr have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.44,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 181 km for Al-Nassr.","evidence":{"travel_km":181},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Conditions: 33°C heat.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":22.3,"temperature_c":33,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0.188,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"both","pct":-1.7},{"channel":"corners","side":"both","pct":-1.4}]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.07964140288825193},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: close","preview":"Look past the results and this is Al-Nassr's game. Al-Nassr have created the better chances in seven of their last ten games. As for the other side, Al Faisaly have been out-created in five of their last seven games. If that carries on, Al-Nassr should have the better of it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5598,"created_at":"2026-10-17T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":222857,"event_date":"2026-10-23T13:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":4909,"home_team":"Al Faisaly","away_team_id":267,"away_team":"Al-Nassr","league_id":17,"league_name":"Saudi Pro League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":75.7,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.7568,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":222857,"event_date":"2026-10-23T13:30:00Z","home_team":"Al Faisaly","away_team":"Al-Nassr","polymarket_event_id":"1161734","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":812.358276,"volume_1wk":812.358276,"volume_1mo":812.358276,"volume_1yr":812.358276,"open_interest":812.358276,"liquidity_clob":16502.1773,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.08,"best_ask":0.1,"change_1d":0.01,"change_1wk":-0.125,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.3,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.023,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 0 - 1 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.09,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 0 - 2 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.115,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 0 - 3 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.1,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 0 - 4 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.055,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 0 - 5 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.295,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 1 - 0 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.0255,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 1 - 1 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.061,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 1 - 2 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.095,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 1 - 3 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.08,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 1 - 4 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.0385,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 1 - 5 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.295,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 2 - 0 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.0095,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 2 - 1 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.028,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 2 - 2 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.042,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 2 - 3 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.033,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 2 - 4 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.024,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 2 - 5 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.3,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 3 - 0 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.0495,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 3 - 1 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.008,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 3 - 2 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.0095,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 3 - 3 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.009,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 3 - 4 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.295,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 3 - 5 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.3,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 4 - 0 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.215,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 4 - 1 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.2495,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 4 - 2 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.0495,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 4 - 3 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.215,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 4 - 4 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.0545,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 4 - 5 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.3,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 5 - 0 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.22,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 5 - 1 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.215,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 5 - 2 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.045,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 5 - 3 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.225,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 5 - 4 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.265,"Al Faisaly Saudi Club 5 - 5 Al Nassr Saudi Club":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-10-22T06:27:15Z"}},"computed_at":1792658216,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#7b161f","away":null},"venue":{"name":"Al Majma'ah Sport City","city":"Al Majmaah","capacity":7000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}