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Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.09424377583701145},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Al-Nassr should edge this one, though their third-place standing flatters them slightly compared to their visitors. Diriyah arrive having fashioned the superior openings in five of their past seven outings, yet their eighth-place rank and poor record against higher opponents suggest their finishing lets them down. Al-Nassr take four wins from their last six overall, and they dominate teams sitting below them, helped by home comforts. The away side travels well and keeps clean sheets in half of their recent matches, but missing a key defensive pillar leaves the hosts vulnerable down the flanks. Ultimately, Cristiano Ronaldo leading the line will decide it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4366,"created_at":"2026-10-03T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":222837,"event_date":"2026-10-09T18:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":267,"home_team":"Al-Nassr","away_team_id":3256,"away_team":"Diriyah","league_id":17,"league_name":"Saudi Pro League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":66.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6632,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":222837,"event_date":"2026-10-09T18:00:00Z","home_team":"Al-Nassr","away_team":"Diriyah","polymarket_event_id":"1082691","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":10,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.485,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.485,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 0 - 1 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.49,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 0 - 2 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.4975,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 0 - 3 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.05,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 0 - 4 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.3645,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 0 - 5 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.48,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 1 - 0 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.38,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 1 - 1 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.13,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 1 - 2 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.49,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 1 - 3 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.05,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 1 - 4 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.4975,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 1 - 5 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.485,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 2 - 0 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.38,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 2 - 1 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.38,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 2 - 2 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.065,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 2 - 3 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.0495,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 2 - 4 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.0495,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 2 - 5 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.045,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 3 - 0 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.245,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 3 - 1 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.375,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 3 - 2 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.49,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 3 - 3 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.05,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 3 - 4 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.4975,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 3 - 5 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.48,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 4 - 0 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.49,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 4 - 1 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.49,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 4 - 2 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.4975,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 4 - 3 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.4975,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 4 - 4 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.0355,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 4 - 5 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.48,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 5 - 0 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.485,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 5 - 1 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.48,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 5 - 2 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.48,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 5 - 3 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.49,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 5 - 4 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.475,"Al Nassr Saudi Club 5 - 5 Al Diraiyah Saudi Club":0.0405},"updated_at":"2026-10-03T19:27:12Z"}},"computed_at":1791473590,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":null},"venue":{"name":"Al-Awwal Park","city":"Riyadh","capacity":26000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}