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Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Al-Fateh have scored 6 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.51,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Al-Ahli have scored 7 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.56,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Al-Ahli travel 1138 km for this fixture.","evidence":{"travel_km":1138},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.6},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.6}]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Conditions: 35°C heat.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":20.9,"temperature_c":35,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0.313,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"both","pct":-2.8},{"channel":"corners","side":"both","pct":-2.3}]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.09424377583701145},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Al-Ahli should edge this game because Al-Fateh are consistently being outplayed. Despite sitting 15th, Al-Fateh are creating enough to score more than 6 times across their recent run. Yet, they struggle against top half sides and have been dominated at home recently. Al-Ahli are not much better away, often conceding the run of play on their travels. Still, their superior form against teams below them proves decisive. The game depends on Ivan Toney, who is in the team of the season and arrives with scoring streaks that punish opponents. Al-Fateh possess the attacking talent to finally find their rhythm, but their defensive leaks against superior opposition mean Ivan Toney decides the result.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4387,"created_at":"2026-10-03T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":222832,"event_date":"2026-10-09T14:55:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":268,"home_team":"Al-Fateh","away_team_id":258,"away_team":"Al-Ahli","league_id":17,"league_name":"Saudi Pro League"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":64.8,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6482,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":222832,"event_date":"2026-10-09T14:55:00Z","home_team":"Al-Fateh","away_team":"Al-Ahli","polymarket_event_id":"1082698","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":10,"liquidity_clob":null,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":null,"best_ask":null,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-03T19:27:12Z"}},"computed_at":1791473606,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#11d311","away":null},"venue":{"name":"Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium","city":"Al-Ahsa","capacity":19550},"pulled":[],"published":[]}