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The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Mikkel Jespersen","matches_in_charge":2,"tenure_days":120,"ppm":3,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":1.3,"delta":null}},"strength":0.467,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":2.8}]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Silkeborg IF come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.208333333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lyngby come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.128,"defence":-0.133,"effective_matches":14.6,"shrunk":0.35},"away":{"attack":0.018,"defence":-0.134,"effective_matches":9.7,"shrunk":0.45}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":47.9,"shots":10.8,"xg_per_shot":0.093,"corners":3.8,"corners_per_shot":0.346,"finishing_vs_xg":0.33},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":50.4,"shots":14.2,"xg_per_shot":0.114,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.335,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.2},"possession_gap":-2.5},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Silkeborg IF have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.33,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Lyngby are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.2,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"53 yellow cards in this referee's last 18 games, where 62 would be usual in this league, and 2 reds. — though 18 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":18,"yellows_per_match":2.94,"reds_per_match":0.111,"league_yellows_per_match":3.47,"league_reds_per_match":0.139,"yellow_ratio":0.85,"red_ratio":0.8,"sample":18,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 188 km for Lyngby.","evidence":{"travel_km":188},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":0.4,"temperature_c":9,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.19608034629157953},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6946,"created_at":"2026-10-31T02:15:20Z","event":{"id":221557,"event_date":"2026-11-06T18:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1374,"home_team":"Silkeborg IF","away_team_id":1370,"away_team":"Lyngby","league_id":84,"league_name":"Danish Superliga"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":39.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3953,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793937061,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#109ccb","away":"#0a3f76"},"venue":{"name":"JYSK Park","city":"Silkeborg","capacity":10000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}