{"id":220906,"league_id":82,"league":"Liga 3","kickoff":1793991600,"home":"UD Santarém","away":"CD Mafra","home_id":4823,"away_id":3512,"venue_id":null,"rank":5,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.432,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.37,1.51],"read":{"text":"Too close to call","side":null},"pass":"UD Santarém v CD Mafra is one to leave alone. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[{"id":"form.home","section":"§2.1","note":"UD Santarém have taken 2.17 points a game from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.2, and 2.50 a game at home."},{"id":"market.movement","section":"§7.1","note":"Since opening, AWAY has shortened 15.4% since the market opened."}],"lambda_home":1.3689180737828384,"lambda_away":1.511974537847072,"corner_rate":10.69,"card_rate":0.227,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.564,"home":{"formation":"3-4-3","players":[{"id":88345,"name":"Ricardo Ribeiro","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.583},{"id":75591,"name":"Kelechi","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.458},{"id":75317,"name":"David Vinhas","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.409},{"id":75184,"name":"Jaime Simões","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.239},{"id":67853,"name":"Tiago André","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.526},{"id":75411,"name":"Bruno Sousa","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.469},{"id":2049,"name":"André Sousa","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.397},{"id":88341,"name":"Joao Nobrega","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.336},{"id":116124,"name":"Rafael Camacho","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.458},{"id":75517,"name":"Costinha","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.34},{"id":75573,"name":"Mordomo","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.193},{"id":46819,"name":"Rodrigo Silva","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.407},{"id":15143,"name":"Maya","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.34},{"id":114651,"name":"Helder Sá","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.325},{"id":23965,"name":"Abderrahmane Soumare","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.268},{"id":21667,"name":"Diogo Ressurreição","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.169},{"id":75410,"name":"Isnaba Graça","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.156},{"id":26528,"name":"Luis Martins","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.153},{"id":69906,"name":"Manuel Pami","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.125},{"id":4533,"name":"Stéphane Diarra","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.114},{"id":54978,"name":"Mario Junior","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.102},{"id":217711,"name":"Dinis Ribeiro Almeida","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.101},{"id":153730,"name":"John Victor Nobrega dos Santos","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.095}],"confidence":0.564},"away":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":75295,"name":"Pedro Silva","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.433},{"id":95527,"name":"Amadou Ba","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.261},{"id":75268,"name":"Moussa Camara","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.521},{"id":28692,"name":"Gonçalo Cardoso","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.368},{"id":75270,"name":"Francisco Ferreira","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.31},{"id":75276,"name":"Braíma Sambú","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.524},{"id":75280,"name":"Lénio Neves","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.294},{"id":75278,"name":"Rodrigo Matos","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.525},{"id":75308,"name":"Yacouba Maiga","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.254},{"id":35277,"name":"Leandro Alves","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.345},{"id":75284,"name":"Mamor Niang","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.534},{"id":75299,"name":"Celso Raposo","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.282},{"id":75272,"name":"Kauê Alves","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.279},{"id":75289,"name":"João Ferreira","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.26},{"id":94609,"name":"João Silva","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.196},{"id":167732,"name":"Adama Ngom","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.184},{"id":75267,"name":"Francisco Lemos","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.125},{"id":217763,"name":"Amadou Ba","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.108},{"id":75603,"name":"Goba Zakpa","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.107},{"id":75282,"name":"Rafael Moreira","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.063},{"id":205018,"name":"Adama Paul Junior Deme","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.035},{"id":217764,"name":"Jony Pedro","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.03},{"id":75306,"name":"Ença Fati","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02}],"confidence":0.582},"unavailable":[]},"people":[{"id":88345,"name":"Ricardo Ribeiro","side":"home"},{"id":75591,"name":"Kelechi","side":"home"},{"id":75317,"name":"David Vinhas","side":"home"},{"id":75184,"name":"Jaime Simões","side":"home"},{"id":67853,"name":"Tiago André","side":"home"},{"id":75411,"name":"Bruno Sousa","side":"home"},{"id":2049,"name":"André Sousa","side":"home"},{"id":88341,"name":"Joao Nobrega","side":"home"},{"id":116124,"name":"Rafael Camacho","side":"home"},{"id":75517,"name":"Costinha","side":"home"},{"id":75573,"name":"Mordomo","side":"home"},{"id":46819,"name":"Rodrigo Silva","side":"home"},{"id":15143,"name":"Maya","side":"home"},{"id":114651,"name":"Helder Sá","side":"home"},{"id":23965,"name":"Abderrahmane Soumare","side":"home"},{"id":21667,"name":"Diogo Ressurreição","side":"home"},{"id":75410,"name":"Isnaba Graça","side":"home"},{"id":26528,"name":"Luis Martins","side":"home"},{"id":69906,"name":"Manuel Pami","side":"home"},{"id":4533,"name":"Stéphane Diarra","side":"home"},{"id":54978,"name":"Mario Junior","side":"home"},{"id":217711,"name":"Dinis Ribeiro Almeida","side":"home"},{"id":153730,"name":"John Victor Nobrega dos Santos","side":"home"},{"id":88348,"name":"Lucas Manacas","side":"home"},{"id":75518,"name":"Rafael Midões","side":"home"},{"id":88346,"name":"Andre Pacheco","side":"home"},{"id":88347,"name":"Breno Silva","side":"home"},{"id":218694,"name":"Dinis Almeida","side":"home"},{"id":75214,"name":"Eduardho Marcante","side":"home"},{"id":27661,"name":"Kirill Klimov","side":"home"},{"id":75658,"name":"Bamba","side":"home"},{"id":95137,"name":"Aly Palacios","side":"home"},{"id":65017,"name":"Jota Oliveira","side":"home"},{"id":75194,"name":"Emanuel Goncalves","side":"home"},{"id":75295,"name":"Pedro Silva","side":"away"},{"id":95527,"name":"Amadou Ba","side":"away"},{"id":75268,"name":"Moussa Camara","side":"away"},{"id":28692,"name":"Gonçalo Cardoso","side":"away"},{"id":75270,"name":"Francisco Ferreira","side":"away"},{"id":75276,"name":"Braíma Sambú","side":"away"},{"id":75280,"name":"Lénio Neves","side":"away"},{"id":75278,"name":"Rodrigo Matos","side":"away"},{"id":75308,"name":"Yacouba Maiga","side":"away"},{"id":35277,"name":"Leandro Alves","side":"away"},{"id":75284,"name":"Mamor Niang","side":"away"},{"id":75299,"name":"Celso Raposo","side":"away"},{"id":75272,"name":"Kauê Alves","side":"away"},{"id":75289,"name":"João Ferreira","side":"away"},{"id":94609,"name":"João Silva","side":"away"},{"id":167732,"name":"Adama Ngom","side":"away"},{"id":75267,"name":"Francisco Lemos","side":"away"},{"id":217763,"name":"Amadou Ba","side":"away"},{"id":75603,"name":"Goba Zakpa","side":"away"},{"id":75282,"name":"Rafael Moreira","side":"away"},{"id":205018,"name":"Adama Paul Junior Deme","side":"away"},{"id":217764,"name":"Jony Pedro","side":"away"},{"id":75306,"name":"Ença Fati","side":"away"},{"id":116477,"name":"Alassana Baldé","side":"away"},{"id":116476,"name":"Leandro Alves","side":"away"},{"id":75641,"name":"Xico","side":"away"},{"id":75585,"name":"Raphael Rossi","side":"away"},{"id":104191,"name":"Daniel Dias Lucas","side":"away"},{"id":142718,"name":"Lucas Ventura","side":"away"},{"id":220839,"name":"Cheick Diakité","side":"away"},{"id":75711,"name":"Lucas Gabriel","side":"away"},{"id":119373,"name":"Rodrigo","side":"away"},{"id":75312,"name":"Andrey","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":75517,"name":"Costinha","side":"home","team":"UD Santarém","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":4,"starts":4,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":11,"tracked_apps":4,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":4,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Lusitano Ginásio Clube","kickoff":1791576000,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"3-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.102,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":165,"country":0}},{"id":116124,"name":"Rafael Camacho","side":"home","team":"UD Santarém","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"LW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":6,"starts":6,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":11,"tracked_apps":6,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.022,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":178,"country":0}},{"id":75284,"name":"Mamor Niang","side":"away","team":"CD Mafra","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":8,"starts":7,"goals":4,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":15,"tracked_apps":8,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":3,"assists":0,"scoredIn":3,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Louletano DC","kickoff":1793458800,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","in_form"],"importance":0.152,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":180,"country":0}},{"id":75278,"name":"Rodrigo Matos","side":"away","team":"CD Mafra","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":8,"starts":8,"goals":3,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":15,"tracked_apps":8,"tracked_starts":8},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"GD Vitória Sernache","kickoff":1786215600,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"5-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.121,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":155,"country":0}}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":4823,"away":3512},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":0,"d":1,"l":3},"below":{"w":3,"d":0,"l":1}},"away":{"above":{"w":0,"d":2,"l":0},"below":{"w":3,"d":1,"l":2}}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":3781,"name":"Dimas Manuel Marques Teixeira","vs":{"w":1,"d":1,"l":2,"last":{"kickoff":1775210400,"score":"1-2","result":"L"}}},"away":{"id":2911,"name":"Tim  Sparv","vs":{"w":2,"d":1,"l":1,"last":{"kickoff":1775210400,"score":"2-1","result":"W"}}}},"best_xi":[],"players":{}},"notable":[{"id":75506,"name":"Gonçalo Chaves","goals":6,"rank":1},{"id":75258,"name":"Bruninho","goals":5,"rank":2},{"id":75183,"name":"Mathias Tepe","goals":5,"rank":3},{"id":75426,"name":"Pedro Soares","goals":5,"rank":4},{"id":75434,"name":"Helder Suker","goals":4,"rank":5},{"id":75386,"name":"Ká Semedo","goals":4,"rank":6},{"id":75284,"name":"Mamor Niang","goals":4,"rank":7},{"id":73103,"name":"Miguel Alexis Moreno Moreno","goals":4,"rank":8},{"id":38930,"name":"Solo Traoré","goals":4,"rank":9},{"id":73107,"name":"Daniel Rodrigues","goals":3,"rank":10},{"id":28681,"name":"Diego Fernandes","goals":3,"rank":11},{"id":75257,"name":"Diogo Leitão","goals":3,"rank":12},{"id":28915,"name":"Francisco Canário","goals":3,"rank":13},{"id":73104,"name":"Franco Almara","goals":3,"rank":14},{"id":75372,"name":"João Batista","goals":3,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Group B · Matchday 9","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":5,"home_wins":1,"draws":1,"away_wins":3,"home_goals":5,"away_goals":6,"avg_total_goals":2.2,"home_win_rate":0.2,"away_win_rate":0.6,"recent_matches":[{"away":"UD Santarém","date":"2026-04-03T10:00:00+00:00","home":"CD Mafra","score":"2-1","event_id":220670,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":4823,"home_team_id":3512},{"away":"CD Mafra","date":"2026-03-04T20:00:00+00:00","home":"UD Santarém","score":"3-1","event_id":220533,"away_score":1,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":3512,"home_team_id":4823},{"away":"UD Santarém","date":"2026-01-16T20:30:00+00:00","home":"CD Mafra","score":"0-0","event_id":220797,"away_score":0,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":4823,"home_team_id":3512},{"away":"CD Mafra","date":"2025-10-26T15:00:00+00:00","home":"UD Santarém","score":"1-2","event_id":220669,"away_score":2,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":3512,"home_team_id":4823},{"away":"CD Mafra","date":"2022-10-02T13:00:00+00:00","home":"UD Santarém","score":"0-1","event_id":599914,"away_score":1,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":3512,"home_team_id":4823}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":4823,"position":6,"played":8,"points":10,"goal_diff":-5,"team_name":"UD Santarém","won":3,"drawn":1,"lost":4,"goals_for":9,"goals_against":14,"group":"Group B"},"away":{"team_id":3512,"position":3,"played":8,"points":12,"goal_diff":5,"team_name":"CD Mafra","won":3,"drawn":3,"lost":2,"goals_for":16,"goals_against":11,"group":"Group B"},"size":20},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":2.17,"record":"4-1-1","goals_for":2.5,"goals_against":1.17,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"none","sequence":"WWWDWL","venue_ppg":2.5},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.17,"record":"1-4-1","goals_for":1.83,"goals_against":1.83,"clean_sheets":0,"streak":"unbeaten 5","sequence":"LDDDDW","venue_ppg":0.5}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"UD Santarém report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.away.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"CD Mafra report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.564,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.436,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":29,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":6,"points":10,"games_left":29,"gap_to_leader":9,"gap_to_safety":2,"gap_to_europe":-1},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":3,"points":12,"games_left":29,"gap_to_leader":7,"gap_to_safety":4,"gap_to_europe":-3},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 2-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Dimas Manuel Marques Teixeira is 9 games into the job at UD Santarém, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Dimas Manuel Marques Teixeira","matches_in_charge":9,"tenure_days":85,"ppm":1.44,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.5,"after_ppm":1.44,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Tim  Sparv has 48 matches in charge at CD Mafra, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Tim  Sparv","matches_in_charge":48,"tenure_days":455,"ppm":1.58,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1,"after_ppm":1.8,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"UD Santarém come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.166666666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"CD Mafra come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.166666666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.07,"defence":-0.066,"effective_matches":11.4,"shrunk":0.41},"away":{"attack":0.219,"defence":-0.101,"effective_matches":11,"shrunk":0.42}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":52,"shots":null,"xg_per_shot":null,"corners":5.9,"corners_per_shot":null,"finishing_vs_xg":null},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":54.6,"shots":null,"xg_per_shot":null,"corners":6.9,"corners_per_shot":null,"finishing_vs_xg":null},"possession_gap":-2.6},"strength":0.105,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"No chance data on record for UD Santarém's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.","evidence":{"matches":12},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"No chance data on record for CD Mafra's recent matches, so finishing cannot be compared to chances.","evidence":{"matches":12},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.15425800390393232},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6911,"created_at":"2026-10-31T02:15:20Z","event":{"id":220906,"event_date":"2026-11-06T19:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":4823,"home_team":"UD Santarém","away_team_id":3512,"away_team":"CD Mafra","league_id":82,"league_name":"Liga 3"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":41.2,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4121,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793981298,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#dc3935","away":"#159d4a"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[]}