{"id":220887,"league_id":82,"league":"Liga 3","kickoff":1793390400,"home":"AD Fafe","away":"Paços de Ferreira","home_id":4827,"away_id":1315,"venue_id":null,"rank":5,"status":"notstarted","provisional":true,"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.376,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.39,0.95],"read":{"text":"AD Fafe to edge it","side":"home"},"pass":"Nothing to take on AD Fafe against Paços de Ferreira. The likely outcome is priced too short to be worth taking, and nothing else is sure enough to call.","flags":[],"lambda_home":1.3893831690712326,"lambda_away":0.9534159860143062,"corner_rate":11.38,"card_rate":0.251,"lineups":{"status":"predicted","confidence":0.514,"home":{"formation":"4-3-3","players":[{"id":115721,"name":"Petr Kudakovskiy","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.462},{"id":75384,"name":"Breno","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.408},{"id":75372,"name":"João Batista","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.472},{"id":75358,"name":"Leandro Teixeira","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.397},{"id":75235,"name":"Obama Ribeiro","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.521},{"id":75188,"name":"Pedro Pereira","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.394},{"id":75193,"name":"Daniel Carvalho","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.407},{"id":87510,"name":"Mimito Biai","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.261},{"id":75370,"name":"Tiago Veiga","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.458},{"id":87509,"name":"Mário Correia","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.46},{"id":75367,"name":"Picas","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.263},{"id":75396,"name":"Duarte Carvalho","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.321},{"id":28814,"name":"Nuno Sequeira","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.243},{"id":75378,"name":"Carlos Daniel","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.193},{"id":87511,"name":"Prince Otumba","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.152},{"id":121566,"name":"Kuffour Edwin Asamoah","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.15},{"id":75364,"name":"Filipe Cardoso","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.117},{"id":98763,"name":"João Amaral","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.115},{"id":87512,"name":"Leonardo Ferreira","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.099},{"id":87508,"name":"Rafael Martins","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.094},{"id":75663,"name":"Dinis Gama","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.064},{"id":217788,"name":"Prince Otumba","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.025},{"id":176143,"name":"Bernardo Ferreira","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.02}],"confidence":0.582},"away":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":28702,"name":"Pedro Rafael Oliveira","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":0.403},{"id":28698,"name":"Leandro Dias","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.356},{"id":28700,"name":"Rafael Vieira","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.524},{"id":20482,"name":"Wesley Junio","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.325},{"id":94639,"name":"Tiago Mesquita","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":0.28},{"id":28686,"name":"Nuno Cunha","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.41},{"id":17437,"name":"Caio Rafael","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.337},{"id":11622,"name":"Miguel Falé","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.393},{"id":75072,"name":"Tomás Castro","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.339},{"id":20508,"name":"João Pedro Jotta","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":0.178},{"id":94668,"name":"Higor Platiny","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":0.529},{"id":64228,"name":"Diogo Castro","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.258},{"id":75074,"name":"Tiago Cerveira","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.247},{"id":65951,"name":"João Sidónio","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.225},{"id":75071,"name":"Tomás Podstawski","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.199},{"id":3457,"name":"João Neto","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.196},{"id":65952,"name":"Cristiano Pereira","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":0.153},{"id":4044,"name":"Vitinho","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.142},{"id":75070,"name":"José Sacramento","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":0.092},{"id":5678,"name":"Tiago Queiroz","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.092},{"id":170428,"name":"Ianis Vulpe","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.06},{"id":28693,"name":"Diegão","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":0.053},{"id":89407,"name":"Bubacar Djaló","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":0.025}],"confidence":0.514},"unavailable":[]},"people":[{"id":115721,"name":"Petr Kudakovskiy","side":"home"},{"id":75384,"name":"Breno","side":"home"},{"id":75372,"name":"João Batista","side":"home"},{"id":75358,"name":"Leandro Teixeira","side":"home"},{"id":75235,"name":"Obama Ribeiro","side":"home"},{"id":75188,"name":"Pedro Pereira","side":"home"},{"id":75193,"name":"Daniel Carvalho","side":"home"},{"id":87510,"name":"Mimito Biai","side":"home"},{"id":75370,"name":"Tiago Veiga","side":"home"},{"id":87509,"name":"Mário Correia","side":"home"},{"id":75367,"name":"Picas","side":"home"},{"id":75396,"name":"Duarte Carvalho","side":"home"},{"id":28814,"name":"Nuno Sequeira","side":"home"},{"id":75378,"name":"Carlos Daniel","side":"home"},{"id":87511,"name":"Prince Otumba","side":"home"},{"id":121566,"name":"Kuffour Edwin Asamoah","side":"home"},{"id":75364,"name":"Filipe Cardoso","side":"home"},{"id":98763,"name":"João Amaral","side":"home"},{"id":87512,"name":"Leonardo Ferreira","side":"home"},{"id":87508,"name":"Rafael Martins","side":"home"},{"id":75663,"name":"Dinis Gama","side":"home"},{"id":217788,"name":"Prince Otumba","side":"home"},{"id":176143,"name":"Bernardo Ferreira","side":"home"},{"id":210800,"name":"Benny","side":"home"},{"id":121565,"name":"Elijah Alao","side":"home"},{"id":26085,"name":"Guilherme Carneiro","side":"home"},{"id":210801,"name":"Salvador Silva","side":"home"},{"id":28702,"name":"Pedro Rafael Oliveira","side":"away"},{"id":28698,"name":"Leandro Dias","side":"away"},{"id":28700,"name":"Rafael Vieira","side":"away"},{"id":20482,"name":"Wesley Junio","side":"away"},{"id":94639,"name":"Tiago Mesquita","side":"away"},{"id":28686,"name":"Nuno Cunha","side":"away"},{"id":17437,"name":"Caio Rafael","side":"away"},{"id":11622,"name":"Miguel Falé","side":"away"},{"id":75072,"name":"Tomás Castro","side":"away"},{"id":20508,"name":"João Pedro Jotta","side":"away"},{"id":94668,"name":"Higor Platiny","side":"away"},{"id":64228,"name":"Diogo Castro","side":"away"},{"id":75074,"name":"Tiago Cerveira","side":"away"},{"id":65951,"name":"João Sidónio","side":"away"},{"id":75071,"name":"Tomás Podstawski","side":"away"},{"id":3457,"name":"João Neto","side":"away"},{"id":65952,"name":"Cristiano Pereira","side":"away"},{"id":4044,"name":"Vitinho","side":"away"},{"id":75070,"name":"José Sacramento","side":"away"},{"id":5678,"name":"Tiago Queiroz","side":"away"},{"id":170428,"name":"Ianis Vulpe","side":"away"},{"id":28693,"name":"Diegão","side":"away"},{"id":89407,"name":"Bubacar Djaló","side":"away"},{"id":186111,"name":"Sacra","side":"away"},{"id":20410,"name":"Marcão","side":"away"},{"id":212337,"name":"Marcão","side":"away"},{"id":28690,"name":"Gabriel Coelho","side":"away"},{"id":170427,"name":"José Anunciação","side":"away"},{"id":12228,"name":"João Pedro Silva","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":75372,"name":"João Batista","side":"home","team":"AD Fafe","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"CB","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":7,"starts":6,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":15,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"CD Trofense","kickoff":1791732600,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.082,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":90,"country":0}},{"id":87509,"name":"Mário Correia","side":"home","team":"AD Fafe","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":7,"starts":6,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":15,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"CD Trofense","kickoff":1791732600,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.091,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":32,"country":0}},{"id":75367,"name":"Picas","side":"home","team":"AD Fafe","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"RW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":4,"starts":3,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":15,"tracked_apps":4,"tracked_starts":3},"recent":{"apps":4,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Leça FC","kickoff":1788688800,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"3-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.036,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":32,"country":0}},{"id":94668,"name":"Higor Platiny","side":"away","team":"Paços de Ferreira","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":7,"starts":7,"goals":2,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":10,"tracked_apps":7,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"SC Vianense","kickoff":1788613200,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.285,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":60,"country":0}},{"id":11622,"name":"Miguel Falé","side":"away","team":"Paços de Ferreira","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"LW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":5,"starts":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":10,"tracked_apps":5,"tracked_starts":5},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.02,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":90,"country":0}}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":4827,"away":1315},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":0,"d":1,"l":1},"below":{"w":2,"d":3,"l":0}},"away":{"above":{"w":2,"d":2,"l":3},"below":null}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":2916,"name":"Mário Ferreira","vs":{"w":1,"d":0,"l":0,"last":{"kickoff":1788030000,"score":"1-0","result":"W"}}},"away":{"id":3607,"name":"Vitor Paneira","vs":{"w":0,"d":0,"l":1,"last":{"kickoff":1788030000,"score":"0-1","result":"L"}}}},"best_xi":[],"players":{}},"notable":[{"id":75506,"name":"Gonçalo Chaves","goals":5,"rank":1},{"id":75183,"name":"Mathias Tepe","goals":5,"rank":2},{"id":75434,"name":"Helder Suker","goals":4,"rank":3},{"id":75426,"name":"Pedro Soares","goals":4,"rank":4},{"id":75258,"name":"Bruninho","goals":3,"rank":5},{"id":73107,"name":"Daniel Rodrigues","goals":3,"rank":6},{"id":28681,"name":"Diego Fernandes","goals":3,"rank":7},{"id":75257,"name":"Diogo Leitão","goals":3,"rank":8},{"id":28915,"name":"Francisco Canário","goals":3,"rank":9},{"id":73104,"name":"Franco Almara","goals":3,"rank":10},{"id":75281,"name":"João Daniel","goals":3,"rank":11},{"id":75386,"name":"Ká Semedo","goals":3,"rank":12},{"id":75284,"name":"Mamor Niang","goals":3,"rank":13},{"id":73103,"name":"Miguel Alexis Moreno Moreno","goals":3,"rank":14},{"id":75234,"name":"Moisés Conceiçao","goals":3,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Group A · Matchday 8","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":1,"home_wins":1,"draws":0,"away_wins":0,"home_goals":1,"away_goals":0,"avg_total_goals":1,"home_win_rate":1,"away_win_rate":0,"recent_matches":[{"away":"AD Fafe","date":"2026-08-29T19:00:00+00:00","home":"Paços de Ferreira","score":"0-1","event_id":599516,"away_score":1,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":4827,"home_team_id":1315}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":4827,"position":3,"played":7,"points":10,"goal_diff":4,"team_name":"AD Fafe","won":2,"drawn":4,"lost":1,"goals_for":10,"goals_against":6,"group":"Group A"},"away":{"team_id":1315,"position":9,"played":7,"points":8,"goal_diff":-3,"team_name":"Paços de Ferreira","won":2,"drawn":2,"lost":3,"goals_for":7,"goals_against":10,"group":"Group A"},"size":20},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.33,"record":"2-2-2","goals_for":1.67,"goals_against":0.83,"clean_sheets":3,"streak":"none","sequence":"WLWDLD","venue_ppg":2},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":1.33,"record":"2-2-2","goals_for":1,"goals_against":1.33,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"unbeaten 4","sequence":"LLDDWW","venue_ppg":2}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AD Fafe report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.away.full_strength","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Paços de Ferreira report no absentees.","evidence":{"absences":0},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.514,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.486,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":30,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":3,"points":10,"games_left":30,"gap_to_leader":6,"gap_to_safety":2,"gap_to_europe":-1},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":9,"points":8,"games_left":30,"gap_to_leader":8,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":1},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 0-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Mário Ferreira has 50 matches in charge at AD Fafe, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Mário Ferreira","matches_in_charge":50,"tenure_days":447,"ppm":1.62,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.8,"after_ppm":1.8,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Vitor Paneira is 10 games into the job at Paços de Ferreira, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Vitor Paneira","matches_in_charge":10,"tenure_days":98,"ppm":0.9,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":0.9,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AD Fafe come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.375,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5.4},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Paços de Ferreira come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.020833333333333,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form. — though 5.151090259797733 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.055,"defence":0.099,"effective_matches":10,"shrunk":0.44},"away":{"attack":-0.073,"defence":0.007,"effective_matches":5.2,"shrunk":0.61},"sample":5.151090259797733,"required":6},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; AD Fafe work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":52.1,"shots":16,"xg_per_shot":0.118,"corners":5.9,"corners_per_shot":0.366,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.31},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":46.1,"shots":22,"xg_per_shot":0.109,"corners":5.7,"corners_per_shot":0.258,"finishing_vs_xg":-1.57},"possession_gap":6},"strength":0.241,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"AD Fafe have scored 4 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.31,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Paços de Ferreira have scored 19 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-1.57,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.15656126967382425},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6230,"created_at":"2026-10-24T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":220887,"event_date":"2026-10-30T20:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":4827,"home_team":"AD Fafe","away_team_id":1315,"away_team":"Paços de Ferreira","league_id":82,"league_name":"Liga 3"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":48.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.483,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793356191,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ece114","away":"#0b8646"},"venue":null,"pulled":[],"published":[]}