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Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.009,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":8}]},"strength":0.576,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.8},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.8},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.3},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.7}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.645,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.355,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":20,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":9,"points":51,"games_left":20,"gap_to_leader":24,"gap_to_safety":17,"gap_to_europe":1},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":6,"points":52,"games_left":20,"gap_to_leader":23,"gap_to_safety":18,"gap_to_europe":0},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 2-0, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Luis Fernando Suarez Guzman is 8 games into the job at Deportes Tolima, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Luis Fernando Suarez 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them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.020833333333333,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.003,"defence":0.139,"effective_matches":17.8,"shrunk":0.31},"away":{"attack":0.16,"defence":0.142,"effective_matches":16.2,"shrunk":0.33}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":57.8,"shots":14.5,"xg_per_shot":0.067,"corners":5.8,"corners_per_shot":0.402,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.06},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":51.4,"shots":15.1,"xg_per_shot":0.079,"corners":5,"corners_per_shot":0.331,"finishing_vs_xg":0.39},"possession_gap":6.5},"strength":0.259,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-3},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Deportes Tolima are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.06,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Millonarios have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.39,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 129 km for Millonarios.","evidence":{"travel_km":129},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":7.6,"temperature_c":19,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3469554844321972},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"No market is priced for this fixture yet.","preview":null,"external":{},"computed_at":1793667710,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#d9a642","away":"#2b4890"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro","city":"Ibague","capacity":28100},"pulled":[],"published":[]}