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The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"José Alexis Marquez","matches_in_charge":4,"tenure_days":20,"ppm":1.5,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.7,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.233,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":2.1}]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Luis Fernando Suarez Guzman is 8 games into the job at Deportes Tolima, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Luis Fernando Suarez Guzman","matches_in_charge":8,"tenure_days":270,"ppm":0.75,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.4,"after_ppm":1.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Deportivo Pereira come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.916666666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":4.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Deportes Tolima come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.9166666666666665,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":3.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.235,"defence":-0.142,"effective_matches":16.4,"shrunk":0.33},"away":{"attack":0.007,"defence":0.138,"effective_matches":18.3,"shrunk":0.3}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Deportes Tolima average 10 points more possession than Deportivo Pereira, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":48.1,"shots":8.2,"xg_per_shot":0.081,"corners":2.8,"corners_per_shot":0.337,"finishing_vs_xg":0.17},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":57.8,"shots":14.5,"xg_per_shot":0.067,"corners":5.8,"corners_per_shot":0.402,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.06},"possession_gap":-9.8},"strength":0.39,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":2},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-2},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Deportivo Pereira are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.17,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Deportes Tolima are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.06,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 73 km for Deportes Tolima.","evidence":{"travel_km":73},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":5.9,"temperature_c":18,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.33138057199641646},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"No market is priced for this fixture yet.","preview":null,"external":{"polymarket":{"event_id":220284,"event_date":"2026-10-29T23:15:00Z","home_team":"Deportivo Pereira","away_team":"Deportes Tolima","polymarket_event_id":"1193335","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":386.489534,"liquidity_clob":7324.4406,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.44,"best_ask":0.49,"change_1d":null,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.375,"AA Argentinos Juniors 0 - 0 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.375,"AA Argentinos Juniors 0 - 1 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.37,"AA Argentinos Juniors 0 - 2 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.37,"AA Argentinos Juniors 0 - 3 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.07,"AA Argentinos Juniors 0 - 4 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.375,"AA Argentinos Juniors 0 - 5 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.375,"AA Argentinos Juniors 1 - 0 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.37,"AA Argentinos Juniors 1 - 1 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.155,"AA Argentinos Juniors 1 - 2 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.37,"AA Argentinos Juniors 1 - 3 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.07,"AA Argentinos Juniors 1 - 4 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.375,"AA Argentinos Juniors 1 - 5 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.375,"AA Argentinos Juniors 2 - 0 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.37,"AA Argentinos Juniors 2 - 1 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.37,"AA Argentinos Juniors 2 - 2 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.37,"AA Argentinos Juniors 2 - 3 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.07,"AA Argentinos Juniors 2 - 4 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.07,"AA Argentinos Juniors 2 - 5 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.055,"AA Argentinos Juniors 3 - 0 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.37,"AA Argentinos Juniors 3 - 1 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.37,"AA Argentinos Juniors 3 - 2 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.37,"AA Argentinos Juniors 3 - 3 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.07,"AA Argentinos Juniors 3 - 4 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.375,"AA Argentinos Juniors 3 - 5 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.375,"AA Argentinos Juniors 4 - 0 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.37,"AA Argentinos Juniors 4 - 1 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.37,"AA Argentinos Juniors 4 - 2 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.37,"AA Argentinos Juniors 4 - 3 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.37,"AA Argentinos Juniors 4 - 4 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.055,"AA Argentinos Juniors 4 - 5 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.375,"AA Argentinos Juniors 5 - 0 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.37,"AA Argentinos Juniors 5 - 1 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.37,"AA Argentinos Juniors 5 - 2 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.37,"AA Argentinos Juniors 5 - 3 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.37,"AA Argentinos Juniors 5 - 4 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.37,"AA Argentinos Juniors 5 - 5 CS Independiente Rivadavia":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-10-21T04:27:18Z"}},"computed_at":1793281272,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ed1c21","away":"#d9a642"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio Hernan Ramírez Villegas","city":"Pereira","capacity":35342},"pulled":[],"published":[]}