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Deportivo Cali have made three changes from the side expected, with Pedro Gallese, José Caldera and Gustavo Cuéllar out of the eleven.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"confirmed","changes":{"home":{"n":3,"out":["Pedro Gallese","José Caldera","Gustavo Cuéllar"],"in":["Alejandro Rodríguez","José Moya","Alexis Manyoma"]},"away":{"n":2,"out":["Yeison Suárez","Juan David Ríos"],"in":["Kevin Pérez","Daniel Socarras"]}}},"strength":0.8,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":23,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":3,"points":52,"games_left":23,"gap_to_leader":14,"gap_to_safety":23,"gap_to_europe":-1},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":10,"points":46,"games_left":23,"gap_to_leader":20,"gap_to_safety":17,"gap_to_europe":5},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Rafael Dudamel is 15 games into the job at Deportivo Cali, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Rafael Dudamel","matches_in_charge":15,"tenure_days":99,"ppm":1.87,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.3,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sebastián Viera is 8 games into the job at Junior Barranquilla, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Sebastián Viera","matches_in_charge":8,"tenure_days":43,"ppm":1.12,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.7,"after_ppm":1.12,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Deportivo Cali come in on 8 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":8.194444444444445,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":8.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Junior Barranquilla come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.152777777777778,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":4.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.007,"defence":0.221,"effective_matches":15.4,"shrunk":0.34},"away":{"attack":0.17,"defence":-0.072,"effective_matches":17.4,"shrunk":0.31}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":49.8,"shots":11.5,"xg_per_shot":0.084,"corners":2.9,"corners_per_shot":0.254,"finishing_vs_xg":0.54},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":54.9,"shots":15.3,"xg_per_shot":0.107,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.315,"finishing_vs_xg":0.02},"possession_gap":-5.2},"strength":0.207,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Deportivo Cali have scored 6 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.54,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Junior Barranquilla are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.02,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"191 yellow cards in this referee's last 42 games, where 235 would be usual in this league, and 22 reds.","evidence":{"matches":42,"yellows_per_match":4.55,"reds_per_match":0.524,"league_yellows_per_match":5.6,"league_reds_per_match":0.473,"yellow_ratio":0.81,"red_ratio":1.11},"strength":0.17,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":-4.2}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Junior Barranquilla travel 844 km for this fixture.","evidence":{"travel_km":844},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.1}]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":6.4,"temperature_c":20,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3226737920074502},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":"The results only tell half of this one, and the other half is all Junior Barranquilla. Junior Barranquilla have failed to win three of their last ten games in which they made the better chances. Their football is better than their results. And they have conceded 19 in their last ten from chances that would usually cost about 11. They have been punished for very little. As for the other side, Deportivo Cali have scored 14 in their last ten from chances that would usually bring about 9. That finishing is running hot. This is where it is decided: Junior Barranquilla make the better chances almost every week, and Deportivo Cali have been out-created in most of their recent games.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5181,"created_at":"2026-10-12T02:15:25Z","event":{"id":220247,"event_date":"2026-10-19T01:10:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":3733,"home_team":"Deportivo Cali","away_team_id":789,"away_team":"Junior Barranquilla","league_id":80,"league_name":"Categoría Primera A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":49.8,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.498,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792369174,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#139042","away":"#0d3a9c"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio Deportivo Cali","city":"Palmira","capacity":52000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}