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Independiente Santa Fe have made five changes from the side expected, with Andrés Mosquera, Victor Moreno and Kilian Toscano out of the eleven.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"confirmed","changes":{"home":{"n":5,"out":["Jimmy Medranda","Francisco Meza","Marlon Sierra","Frank Castañeda","Kelvin Osorio"],"in":["Dennys Quintero","Jhojan Escobar","Neider Ospina","Juan Ramirez","Kevin Rincón"]},"away":{"n":5,"out":["Andrés Mosquera","Victor Moreno","Kilian Toscano","Luis Angel Palacios","Nahuel Bustos"],"in":["Weimar Asprilla","Ivan Scarpeta","Daniel Torres","Alexis Zapata","Franco Fagúndez"]}}},"strength":0.8,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":23,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":14,"points":36,"games_left":23,"gap_to_leader":30,"gap_to_safety":7,"gap_to_europe":15},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":6,"points":51,"games_left":23,"gap_to_leader":15,"gap_to_safety":22,"gap_to_europe":0},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 0-1, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"THIN","note":"Llaneros FC's manager is identified but the tenure has no match record attached.","evidence":{"manager":"Wilmer Alberto Sandoval Galindo"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Pablo Repetto has 35 matches in charge at Independiente Santa Fe, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Pablo Repetto","matches_in_charge":35,"tenure_days":192,"ppm":1.71,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Llaneros FC come in on 3 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.0034722222222223,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.06,"defence":-0.037,"effective_matches":15.1,"shrunk":0.35},"away":{"attack":0.122,"defence":0.135,"effective_matches":16.3,"shrunk":0.33}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":42.7,"shots":9.9,"xg_per_shot":0.092,"corners":4.6,"corners_per_shot":0.462,"finishing_vs_xg":0.26},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":46.7,"shots":12.8,"xg_per_shot":0.093,"corners":5.3,"corners_per_shot":0.414,"finishing_vs_xg":0.22},"possession_gap":-4},"strength":0.161,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Llaneros FC have scored 3 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.26,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Independiente Santa Fe are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.22,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"137 yellow cards in this referee's last 24 games, where 134 would be usual in this league, and 11 reds. — though 24 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":24,"yellows_per_match":5.71,"reds_per_match":0.458,"league_yellows_per_match":5.6,"league_reds_per_match":0.473,"yellow_ratio":1.02,"red_ratio":0.97,"sample":24,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 76 km for Independiente Santa Fe.","evidence":{"travel_km":76},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":4.1,"temperature_c":24,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3226737920074502},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5184,"created_at":"2026-10-12T02:15:25Z","event":{"id":220246,"event_date":"2026-10-18T23:05:00Z","status":"2nd_half","home_team_id":4781,"home_team":"Llaneros FC","away_team_id":797,"away_team":"Independiente Santa Fe","league_id":80,"league_name":"Categoría Primera A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":36.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3631,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792369189,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"live_minute":45,"colors":{"home":"#e7c24b","away":"#ed1c1c"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio Bello Horizonte “Rey Pelé”","city":"Villavicencio","capacity":18000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}