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yet.","evidence":{"games_left":23,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":8,"points":48,"games_left":23,"gap_to_leader":15,"gap_to_safety":19,"gap_to_europe":1},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":19,"points":28,"games_left":23,"gap_to_leader":35,"gap_to_safety":-1,"gap_to_europe":21},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-0, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Alberto Gamero has 16 matches in charge at Millonarios, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Alberto 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The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Julio Méndez","matches_in_charge":2,"tenure_days":15,"ppm":1.5,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.7,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.467,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":2.8}]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Millonarios come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.8958333333333335,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":3.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.135,"defence":0.17,"effective_matches":16.2,"shrunk":0.33},"away":{"attack":-0.108,"defence":-0.256,"effective_matches":13.9,"shrunk":0.36}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Millonarios average 8 points more possession than Jaguares de Córdoba, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":52.4,"shots":14.5,"xg_per_shot":0.082,"corners":5,"corners_per_shot":0.346,"finishing_vs_xg":0.23},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":44.3,"shots":10.7,"xg_per_shot":0.067,"corners":3.8,"corners_per_shot":0.359,"finishing_vs_xg":0.45},"possession_gap":8.1},"strength":0.325,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":1.7},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-1.7},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Millonarios are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.23,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Jaguares de Córdoba have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.45,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":3.9,"temperature_c":14,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.3226737920074502},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was away win at 13.00, where the price of 13.00 is beyond where the model is reliable.","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4995,"created_at":"2026-10-11T02:15:30Z","event":{"id":220242,"event_date":"2026-10-17T23:00:00Z","status":"postponed","home_team_id":736,"home_team":"Millonarios","away_team_id":4785,"away_team":"Jaguares de Córdoba","league_id":80,"league_name":"Categoría Primera A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":72.8,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.7283,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792037586,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#2b4890","away":"#197a0a"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin","city":"Bogota","capacity":36343},"pulled":[],"published":[]}