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Once Caldas have made three changes from the side expected, with Andres Correa, Jorge Cardona and Jader Quinones out of the eleven.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"confirmed","changes":{"home":{"n":4,"out":["Andrés Llinás","Andrey Estupiñán","Sebastián del Castillo","Stiven Vega"],"in":["Sebastián Valencia","Juan Cuadrado","Leonai","David Macalister Silva"]},"away":{"n":3,"out":["Andres Correa","Jorge Cardona","Jader Quinones"],"in":["Juan Castaño","Juan Patiño","Juan Pablo Nieto"]}}},"strength":0.8,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":25,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":8,"points":48,"games_left":25,"gap_to_leader":15,"gap_to_safety":19,"gap_to_europe":1},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":6,"points":49,"games_left":25,"gap_to_leader":14,"gap_to_safety":20,"gap_to_europe":0},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Once Caldas lost the reverse fixture by 3 goals and tend to show up better than form implies in the return.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":3,"beaten_side":"Once Caldas","reverse_score":"1-4","reverse_date":1774135200},"strength":0.36,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":2.7}]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Alberto Gamero has 16 matches in charge at Millonarios, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Alberto Gamero","matches_in_charge":16,"tenure_days":234,"ppm":1.44,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Hernán Herrera has 38 matches in charge at Once Caldas, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Hernán Herrera","matches_in_charge":38,"tenure_days":273,"ppm":1.58,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.6,"after_ppm":1.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Millonarios come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.013888888888889,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Once Caldas come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.013888888888889,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":4},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.134,"defence":0.171,"effective_matches":16.3,"shrunk":0.33},"away":{"attack":0.017,"defence":0.041,"effective_matches":16.3,"shrunk":0.33}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":52.4,"shots":14.5,"xg_per_shot":0.082,"corners":5,"corners_per_shot":0.346,"finishing_vs_xg":0.23},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":55.5,"shots":17,"xg_per_shot":0.07,"corners":5.3,"corners_per_shot":0.309,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.36},"possession_gap":-3.1},"strength":0.125,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Millonarios are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.23,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Once Caldas have scored 4 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.36,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 163 km for Once Caldas.","evidence":{"travel_km":163},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.326274795525094},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"The results here are not telling the whole story. Once Caldas are trending down: their last four games have been their poorest for the chances they make and allow. And they have had most of the ball in six of their last eight games, and they turn it into chances. Whoever makes the better chances on the day takes this one.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5345,"created_at":"2026-10-14T00:05:23Z","event":{"id":220210,"event_date":"2026-10-14T01:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":736,"home_team":"Millonarios","away_team_id":3891,"away_team":"Once Caldas","league_id":80,"league_name":"Categoría Primera A"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":54.2,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5418,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1791939870,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#2b4890","away":"#272d6d"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin","city":"Bogota","capacity":36343},"pulled":[],"published":[]}