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Erzurumspor FK have made three changes from the side expected, with Yakup Kırtay, Martín Rodríguez and Eren Tozlu out of the eleven.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"confirmed","changes":{"home":{"n":3,"out":["Yahia Fofana","Taylan Antalyalı","Emrecan Bulut"],"in":["Zafer Görgen","Moussa Diakité","Ahmed Kutucu"]},"away":{"n":3,"out":["Yakup Kırtay","Martín Rodríguez","Eren Tozlu"],"in":["Festy Ebosele","Gyrano Kerk","Miguel Cardoso"]}}},"strength":0.8,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":23,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":13,"points":11,"games_left":23,"gap_to_leader":14,"gap_to_safety":3,"gap_to_europe":5},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":11,"points":14,"games_left":23,"gap_to_leader":11,"gap_to_safety":6,"gap_to_europe":2},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Recep Uçar has 26 matches in charge at Çaykur Rizespor, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Recep Uçar","matches_in_charge":26,"tenure_days":217,"ppm":1.5,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.5,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Serkan Özbalta is 10 games into the job at Erzurumspor FK, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Serkan Özbalta","matches_in_charge":10,"tenure_days":84,"ppm":1.4,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.2,"after_ppm":1.4,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Çaykur Rizespor come in on 8 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.895833333333333,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Erzurumspor FK come in on 8 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":8,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.015,"defence":-0.029,"effective_matches":13.3,"shrunk":0.37},"away":{"attack":-0.175,"defence":0.025,"effective_matches":7.5,"shrunk":0.52}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Çaykur Rizespor average 10 points more possession than Erzurumspor FK, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":53.2,"shots":15.3,"xg_per_shot":0.087,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.314,"finishing_vs_xg":0},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":43.3,"shots":9.9,"xg_per_shot":0.088,"corners":3.5,"corners_per_shot":0.354,"finishing_vs_xg":0.13},"possession_gap":9.9},"strength":0.396,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":2.1},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-2.1}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Çaykur Rizespor are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Erzurumspor FK are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.13,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"89 yellow cards in this referee's last 19 games, where 82 would be usual in this league, and 1 red. — though 19 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":19,"yellows_per_match":4.68,"reds_per_match":0.053,"league_yellows_per_match":4.29,"league_reds_per_match":0.217,"yellow_ratio":1.09,"red_ratio":0.24,"sample":19,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 138 km for Erzurumspor FK.","evidence":{"travel_km":138},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":5.3,"temperature_c":19,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.2876177262676736},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":"Erzurumspor FK should overpower a struggling home side that cannot beat anyone above them in the table. The visitors are trending up because they have created clearly better chances in their last four games than they did previously. They are comfortable without the ball, as they managed to find better openings in three of the six matches where they had less possession. Without four regular players across the defense and midfield, Rizespor will struggle to stop Ibrahim Diabaté. Erzurumspor FK have already kept three clean sheets in six matches, so even missing a key defender with a muscle problem won't stop them. The visitors' superior efficiency in front of goal decides it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7386,"created_at":"2026-11-02T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":216047,"event_date":"2026-11-08T10:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":189,"home_team":"Çaykur Rizespor","away_team_id":1346,"away_team":"Erzurumspor FK","league_id":11,"league_name":"Trendyol Super Lig"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":48.2,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4821,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":216047,"event_date":"2026-11-08T10:30:00Z","home_team":"Çaykur Rizespor","away_team":"Erzurumspor FK","polymarket_event_id":"1259348","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":876.336448,"volume_1wk":905.776448,"volume_1mo":905.776448,"volume_1yr":905.776448,"open_interest":905.776448,"liquidity_clob":24555.7488,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.5,"best_ask":0.51,"change_1d":0.005,"change_1wk":0.095,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.14,"Çaykur Rizespor 0 - 0 Erzurumspor FK":0.07,"Çaykur Rizespor 0 - 1 Erzurumspor FK":0.06,"Çaykur Rizespor 0 - 2 Erzurumspor FK":0.033,"Çaykur Rizespor 0 - 3 Erzurumspor FK":0.008,"Çaykur Rizespor 0 - 4 Erzurumspor FK":0.183,"Çaykur Rizespor 0 - 5 Erzurumspor FK":0.21,"Çaykur Rizespor 1 - 0 Erzurumspor FK":0.11,"Çaykur Rizespor 1 - 1 Erzurumspor FK":0.125,"Çaykur Rizespor 1 - 2 Erzurumspor FK":0.06,"Çaykur Rizespor 1 - 3 Erzurumspor FK":0.017,"Çaykur Rizespor 1 - 4 Erzurumspor FK":0.036,"Çaykur Rizespor 1 - 5 Erzurumspor FK":0.16,"Çaykur Rizespor 2 - 0 Erzurumspor FK":0.09,"Çaykur Rizespor 2 - 1 Erzurumspor FK":0.1,"Çaykur Rizespor 2 - 2 Erzurumspor FK":0.055,"Çaykur Rizespor 2 - 3 Erzurumspor FK":0.015,"Çaykur Rizespor 2 - 4 Erzurumspor FK":0.0375,"Çaykur Rizespor 2 - 5 Erzurumspor FK":0.04,"Çaykur Rizespor 3 - 0 Erzurumspor FK":0.048,"Çaykur Rizespor 3 - 1 Erzurumspor FK":0.0525,"Çaykur Rizespor 3 - 2 Erzurumspor FK":0.031,"Çaykur Rizespor 3 - 3 Erzurumspor FK":0.008,"Çaykur Rizespor 3 - 4 Erzurumspor FK":0.0395,"Çaykur Rizespor 3 - 5 Erzurumspor FK":0.22,"Çaykur Rizespor 4 - 0 Erzurumspor FK":0.032,"Çaykur Rizespor 4 - 1 Erzurumspor FK":0.038,"Çaykur Rizespor 4 - 2 Erzurumspor FK":0.027,"Çaykur Rizespor 4 - 3 Erzurumspor FK":0.036,"Çaykur Rizespor 4 - 4 Erzurumspor FK":0.01,"Çaykur Rizespor 4 - 5 Erzurumspor FK":0.142,"Çaykur Rizespor 5 - 0 Erzurumspor FK":0.135,"Çaykur Rizespor 5 - 1 Erzurumspor FK":0.15,"Çaykur Rizespor 5 - 2 Erzurumspor FK":0.135,"Çaykur Rizespor 5 - 3 Erzurumspor FK":0.215,"Çaykur Rizespor 5 - 4 Erzurumspor FK":0.152,"Çaykur Rizespor 5 - 5 Erzurumspor FK":0.04},"updated_at":"2026-11-08T06:27:14Z"}},"computed_at":1794131797,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"live_minute":26,"colors":{"home":"#0b188a","away":null},"venue":{"name":"Çaykur Didi Stadyumu","city":"Rize","capacity":15558},"pulled":[],"published":[]}