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projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.768,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.232,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":23,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":16,"points":8,"games_left":23,"gap_to_leader":17,"gap_to_safety":0,"gap_to_europe":8},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":5,"points":17,"games_left":23,"gap_to_leader":8,"gap_to_safety":9,"gap_to_europe":-1},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 2-3, too close to carry a revenge 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The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Alfred Schreuder","matches_in_charge":3,"tenure_days":623,"ppm":1.33,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.6,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.35,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":2.1}]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Gaziantep FK come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.166666666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Kasımpaşa come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.041666666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.138,"defence":-0.091,"effective_matches":13.5,"shrunk":0.37},"away":{"attack":-0.091,"defence":0.094,"effective_matches":13.5,"shrunk":0.37}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":50.4,"shots":13.7,"xg_per_shot":0.073,"corners":4.5,"corners_per_shot":0.325,"finishing_vs_xg":0.17},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":42.8,"shots":12.9,"xg_per_shot":0.087,"corners":4,"corners_per_shot":0.31,"finishing_vs_xg":0.46},"possession_gap":7.6},"strength":0.304,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. 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Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.29756418485501035},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6953,"created_at":"2026-10-31T02:15:20Z","event":{"id":216045,"event_date":"2026-11-06T17:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":183,"home_team":"Gaziantep FK","away_team_id":187,"away_team":"Kasımpaşa","league_id":11,"league_name":"Trendyol Super Lig"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":37.3,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3729,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":216045,"event_date":"2026-11-06T17:00:00Z","home_team":"Gaziantep FK","away_team":"Kasımpaşa","polymarket_event_id":"1252747","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":null,"volume_1wk":null,"volume_1mo":null,"volume_1yr":null,"open_interest":null,"liquidity_clob":3466.6863,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.37,"best_ask":0.38,"change_1d":0.005,"change_1wk":0.025,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.205,"Gaziantep FK 0 - 0 Kasımpaşa SK":0.07,"Gaziantep FK 0 - 1 Kasımpaşa SK":0.09,"Gaziantep FK 0 - 2 Kasımpaşa SK":0.05,"Gaziantep FK 0 - 3 Kasımpaşa SK":0.0225,"Gaziantep FK 0 - 4 Kasımpaşa SK":0.155,"Gaziantep FK 0 - 5 Kasımpaşa SK":0.225,"Gaziantep FK 1 - 0 Kasımpaşa SK":0.09,"Gaziantep FK 1 - 1 Kasımpaşa SK":0.13,"Gaziantep FK 1 - 2 Kasımpaşa SK":0.085,"Gaziantep FK 1 - 3 Kasımpaşa SK":0.0345,"Gaziantep FK 1 - 4 Kasımpaşa SK":0.16,"Gaziantep FK 1 - 5 Kasımpaşa SK":0.155,"Gaziantep FK 2 - 0 Kasımpaşa SK":0.06,"Gaziantep FK 2 - 1 Kasımpaşa SK":0.09,"Gaziantep FK 2 - 2 Kasımpaşa SK":0.06,"Gaziantep FK 2 - 3 Kasımpaşa SK":0.026,"Gaziantep FK 2 - 4 Kasımpaşa SK":0.0495,"Gaziantep FK 2 - 5 Kasımpaşa SK":0.055,"Gaziantep FK 3 - 0 Kasımpaşa SK":0.028,"Gaziantep FK 3 - 1 Kasımpaşa SK":0.039,"Gaziantep FK 3 - 2 Kasımpaşa SK":0.026,"Gaziantep FK 3 - 3 Kasımpaşa SK":0.0085,"Gaziantep FK 3 - 4 Kasımpaşa SK":0.0395,"Gaziantep FK 3 - 5 Kasımpaşa SK":0.145,"Gaziantep FK 4 - 0 Kasımpaşa SK":0.15,"Gaziantep FK 4 - 1 Kasımpaşa SK":0.205,"Gaziantep FK 4 - 2 Kasımpaşa SK":0.0495,"Gaziantep FK 4 - 3 Kasımpaşa SK":0.145,"Gaziantep FK 4 - 4 Kasımpaşa SK":0.0545,"Gaziantep FK 4 - 5 Kasımpaşa SK":0.235,"Gaziantep FK 5 - 0 Kasımpaşa SK":0.215,"Gaziantep FK 5 - 1 Kasımpaşa SK":0.22,"Gaziantep FK 5 - 2 Kasımpaşa SK":0.045,"Gaziantep FK 5 - 3 Kasımpaşa SK":0.19,"Gaziantep FK 5 - 4 Kasımpaşa SK":0.219,"Gaziantep FK 5 - 5 Kasımpaşa SK":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-11-05T12:57:11Z"}},"computed_at":1793887747,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#e62c39","away":"#304ca6"},"venue":{"name":"Gaziantep Stadium","city":"Gaziantep","capacity":33502},"pulled":[],"published":[]}