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Çaykur Rizespor have made four changes from the side expected, with Yahia Fofana, Attila Mocsi and Taylan Antalyalı out of the eleven.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"confirmed","changes":{"home":{"n":3,"out":["Muharrem Cinan","Matej Maglica","Dan Agyei"],"in":["Uğur Kaan Yıldız","Rigoberto Rivas","Florian Ayé"]},"away":{"n":4,"out":["Yahia Fofana","Attila Mocsi","Taylan Antalyalı","Ali Sowe"],"in":["Zafer Görgen","Siaka Bakayoko","Moussa Diakité","Gennaro Borrelli"]}}},"strength":0.8,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":24,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":7,"points":15,"games_left":24,"gap_to_leader":10,"gap_to_safety":7,"gap_to_europe":1},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":13,"points":10,"games_left":24,"gap_to_leader":15,"gap_to_safety":2,"gap_to_europe":6},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 2-0, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Selçuk İnan has 17 matches in charge at Kocaelispor, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Selçuk İnan","matches_in_charge":17,"tenure_days":209,"ppm":1.18,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1,"after_ppm":0.8,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Recep Uçar has 25 matches in charge at Çaykur Rizespor, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Recep Uçar","matches_in_charge":25,"tenure_days":210,"ppm":1.52,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.5,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Kocaelispor come in on 8 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7.833333333333333,"matchesIn7":0,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":7.8},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Çaykur Rizespor come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":4.875,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":1,"days_rest":4.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.141,"defence":0.133,"effective_matches":12.3,"shrunk":0.39},"away":{"attack":0.006,"defence":-0.064,"effective_matches":13,"shrunk":0.38}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":51,"shots":11.8,"xg_per_shot":0.084,"corners":3.9,"corners_per_shot":0.331,"finishing_vs_xg":0.01},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":53.4,"shots":15.1,"xg_per_shot":0.089,"corners":4.9,"corners_per_shot":0.324,"finishing_vs_xg":0.16},"possession_gap":-2.4},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Kocaelispor are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.01,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Çaykur Rizespor are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.16,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"139 yellow cards in this referee's last 29 games, where 127 would be usual in this league, and 10 reds. — though 29 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":29,"yellows_per_match":4.79,"reds_per_match":0.345,"league_yellows_per_match":4.38,"league_reds_per_match":0.226,"yellow_ratio":1.09,"red_ratio":1.52,"sample":29,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Çaykur Rizespor travel 903 km for this fixture.","evidence":{"travel_km":903},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.2},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.2}]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":8.9,"temperature_c":18,"description":"cloudy"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.2822955600604058},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":"Kocaelispor will take control of this game because their football is moving in the right direction while Çaykur Rizespor are slipping fast. Over their last four games, the hosts have made clearly better chances than in the matches before. In contrast, Rizespor are in their poorest spell over their last four, creating little while giving away far too much at the back. Sitting 7th in the table, Kocaelispor are a different side at home. Even with Massadio Haïdara out with a thigh problem weakening their defence, top scorer Berkan Kutlu gives them the extra fire. Kutlu has three goals in the last five games, and his form decides it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6435,"created_at":"2026-10-25T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":216039,"event_date":"2026-10-31T13:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":198,"home_team":"Kocaelispor","away_team_id":189,"away_team":"Çaykur Rizespor","league_id":11,"league_name":"Trendyol Super Lig"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":36.7,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3669,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":216039,"event_date":"2026-10-31T13:00:00Z","home_team":"Kocaelispor","away_team":"Çaykur Rizespor","polymarket_event_id":"1211843","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":12360.318890999999,"volume_1wk":12362.944678,"volume_1mo":12362.944678,"volume_1yr":12362.944678,"open_interest":11591.677029999999,"liquidity_clob":117501.1986,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.31,"best_ask":0.32,"change_1d":-0.06,"change_1wk":-0.17,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.12,"Kocaelispor 0 - 0 Çaykur Rizespor":0.075,"Kocaelispor 0 - 1 Çaykur Rizespor":0.1,"Kocaelispor 0 - 2 Çaykur Rizespor":0.065,"Kocaelispor 0 - 3 Çaykur Rizespor":0.03,"Kocaelispor 0 - 4 Çaykur Rizespor":0.125,"Kocaelispor 0 - 5 Çaykur Rizespor":0.15,"Kocaelispor 1 - 0 Çaykur Rizespor":0.08,"Kocaelispor 1 - 1 Çaykur Rizespor":0.135,"Kocaelispor 1 - 2 Çaykur Rizespor":0.09,"Kocaelispor 1 - 3 Çaykur Rizespor":0.0395,"Kocaelispor 1 - 4 Çaykur Rizespor":0.012,"Kocaelispor 1 - 5 Çaykur Rizespor":0.125,"Kocaelispor 2 - 0 Çaykur Rizespor":0.0505,"Kocaelispor 2 - 1 Çaykur Rizespor":0.08,"Kocaelispor 2 - 2 Çaykur Rizespor":0.061,"Kocaelispor 2 - 3 Çaykur Rizespor":0.0265,"Kocaelispor 2 - 4 Çaykur Rizespor":0.0495,"Kocaelispor 2 - 5 Çaykur Rizespor":0.055,"Kocaelispor 3 - 0 Çaykur Rizespor":0.0215,"Kocaelispor 3 - 1 Çaykur Rizespor":0.031,"Kocaelispor 3 - 2 Çaykur Rizespor":0.0235,"Kocaelispor 3 - 3 Çaykur Rizespor":0.0115,"Kocaelispor 3 - 4 Çaykur Rizespor":0.0395,"Kocaelispor 3 - 5 Çaykur Rizespor":0.115,"Kocaelispor 4 - 0 Çaykur Rizespor":0.1445,"Kocaelispor 4 - 1 Çaykur Rizespor":0.146,"Kocaelispor 4 - 2 Çaykur Rizespor":0.0495,"Kocaelispor 4 - 3 Çaykur Rizespor":0.2095,"Kocaelispor 4 - 4 Çaykur Rizespor":0.0345,"Kocaelispor 4 - 5 Çaykur Rizespor":0.1465,"Kocaelispor 5 - 0 Çaykur Rizespor":0.125,"Kocaelispor 5 - 1 Çaykur Rizespor":0.13,"Kocaelispor 5 - 2 Çaykur Rizespor":0.045,"Kocaelispor 5 - 3 Çaykur Rizespor":0.12,"Kocaelispor 5 - 4 Çaykur Rizespor":0.146,"Kocaelispor 5 - 5 Çaykur Rizespor":0.05},"updated_at":"2026-10-31T11:27:12Z"}},"computed_at":1793449891,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#0b188a"},"venue":{"name":"Turka Araç Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu","city":"Kocaeli","capacity":34829},"pulled":[],"published":[]}