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Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Vitória SC have scored 9 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.76,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"CS Marítimo have scored 6 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.52,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"122 yellow cards in this referee's last 20 games, where 95 would be usual in this league, and 3 reds. — though 20 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":20,"yellows_per_match":6.1,"reds_per_match":0.15,"league_yellows_per_match":4.73,"league_reds_per_match":0.26,"yellow_ratio":1.29,"red_ratio":0.58,"sample":20,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No weather reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.09173509049423839},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":"Vitória SC will edge this tight battle despite sitting fifteenth in the table against twelfth placed opponents. Marítimo arrive on a terrible defensive run, conceding at least six shots on target in four of their last six matches while being out-created in five of their last eight outings. Vitória create better opportunities on their own patch, dominating their previous four home games for chances generated. The hosts are severely underperforming their underlying numbers because they score merely five goals from eight matches when their general play merits thirteen. Marítimo will miss any defensive stability as they get opened up repeatedly. Vitória must cope without their suspended striker up front and defensive cover at the back alongside their injured goalkeeper, yet the finishing will finally correct itself against a porous backline to decide the outcome.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5552,"created_at":"2026-10-17T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":215554,"event_date":"2026-10-23T19:45:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":36,"home_team":"Vitória SC","away_team_id":1311,"away_team":"CS Marítimo","league_id":2,"league_name":"Liga Portugal Betclic"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":60.6,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.6056,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":215554,"event_date":"2026-10-23T19:45:00Z","home_team":"Vitória SC","away_team":"CS Marítimo","polymarket_event_id":"1169825","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":2305.325834,"volume_1wk":2522.012343,"volume_1mo":2807.191831,"volume_1yr":2807.191831,"open_interest":2882.706998,"liquidity_clob":38718.0646,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.62,"best_ask":0.63,"change_1d":0.045,"change_1wk":-0.015,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.18,"Vitória SC 0 - 0 CS Marítimo":0.065,"Vitória SC 0 - 1 CS Marítimo":0.051,"Vitória SC 0 - 2 CS Marítimo":0.0195,"Vitória SC 0 - 3 CS Marítimo":0.0055,"Vitória SC 0 - 4 CS Marítimo":0.1015,"Vitória SC 0 - 5 CS Marítimo":0.005,"Vitória SC 1 - 0 CS Marítimo":0.13,"Vitória SC 1 - 1 CS Marítimo":0.11,"Vitória SC 1 - 2 CS Marítimo":0.0425,"Vitória SC 1 - 3 CS Marítimo":0.01,"Vitória SC 1 - 4 CS Marítimo":0.086,"Vitória SC 1 - 5 CS Marítimo":0.005,"Vitória SC 2 - 0 CS Marítimo":0.115,"Vitória SC 2 - 1 CS Marítimo":0.105,"Vitória SC 2 - 2 CS Marítimo":0.0465,"Vitória SC 2 - 3 CS Marítimo":0.011,"Vitória SC 2 - 4 CS Marítimo":0.0495,"Vitória SC 2 - 5 CS Marítimo":0.045,"Vitória SC 3 - 0 CS Marítimo":0.07,"Vitória SC 3 - 1 CS Marítimo":0.06,"Vitória SC 3 - 2 CS Marítimo":0.0285,"Vitória SC 3 - 3 CS Marítimo":0.008,"Vitória SC 3 - 4 CS Marítimo":0.0395,"Vitória SC 3 - 5 CS Marítimo":0.005,"Vitória SC 4 - 0 CS Marítimo":0.03,"Vitória SC 4 - 1 CS Marítimo":0.0245,"Vitória SC 4 - 2 CS Marítimo":0.0065,"Vitória SC 4 - 3 CS Marítimo":0.1,"Vitória SC 4 - 4 CS Marítimo":0.0345,"Vitória SC 4 - 5 CS Marítimo":0.005,"Vitória SC 5 - 0 CS Marítimo":0.011,"Vitória SC 5 - 1 CS Marítimo":0.01,"Vitória SC 5 - 2 CS Marítimo":0.005,"Vitória SC 5 - 3 CS Marítimo":0.005,"Vitória SC 5 - 4 CS Marítimo":0.005,"Vitória SC 5 - 5 CS Marítimo":0.005},"updated_at":"2026-10-23T11:27:16Z"}},"computed_at":1792763576,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#404040","away":"#6b2515"},"venue":{"name":"Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques","city":"Guimaraes","capacity":30029},"pulled":[],"published":[]}