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Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sporting Braga are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.13,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sporting CP have scored 13 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":1.06,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"211 yellow cards in this referee's last 45 games, exactly what this league averages, and 14 reds.","evidence":{"matches":45,"yellows_per_match":4.69,"reds_per_match":0.311,"league_yellows_per_match":4.68,"league_reds_per_match":0.248,"yellow_ratio":1,"red_ratio":1.25},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 318 km for Sporting CP.","evidence":{"travel_km":318},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":3,"temperature_c":22,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.12555975446637352},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":"Sporting CP sit third in the table and they will control the match. They dominate possession and carve out the better openings in most of their outings, turning that control into clear chances through top scorer Luis Javier Suárez, who arrives fresh from scoring for Colombia and bagging three in his last five games for club and country. Sixth-placed Braga are a different proposition at home and defend stoutly, letting opponents manage very few efforts on target while keeping four clean sheets in six, but they must reshuffle their backline without their ill central defender who is sidelined until the middle of October. The visitors will miss their suspended center-back too, yet the away side's superior shot creation should break through.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":4353,"created_at":"2026-10-03T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":215545,"event_date":"2026-10-09T19:15:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":31,"home_team":"Sporting Braga","away_team_id":22,"away_team":"Sporting CP","league_id":2,"league_name":"Liga Portugal Betclic"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":45.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4553,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}},"polymarket":{"event_id":215545,"event_date":"2026-10-09T19:15:00Z","home_team":"Sporting Braga","away_team":"Sporting CP","polymarket_event_id":"1090756","liquidity":{"volume_24hr":621.327497,"volume_1wk":647.582113,"volume_1mo":747.582113,"volume_1yr":747.582113,"open_interest":925.8426139999999,"liquidity_clob":65943.7469,"liquidity_amm":null},"pricing":{"best_bid":0.28,"best_ask":0.29,"change_1d":0.02,"change_1wk":null,"change_1mo":null},"goalscorers":null,"exact_scores":{"Any Other Score":0.125,"SC Braga 0 - 0 Sporting CP":0.07,"SC Braga 0 - 1 Sporting CP":0.095,"SC Braga 0 - 2 Sporting CP":0.075,"SC Braga 0 - 3 Sporting CP":0.0405,"SC Braga 0 - 4 Sporting CP":0.0135,"SC Braga 0 - 5 Sporting CP":0.355,"SC Braga 1 - 0 Sporting CP":0.07,"SC Braga 1 - 1 Sporting CP":0.13,"SC Braga 1 - 2 Sporting CP":0.095,"SC Braga 1 - 3 Sporting CP":0.048,"SC Braga 1 - 4 Sporting CP":0.0165,"SC Braga 1 - 5 Sporting CP":0.325,"SC Braga 2 - 0 Sporting CP":0.043,"SC Braga 2 - 1 Sporting CP":0.07,"SC Braga 2 - 2 Sporting CP":0.0615,"SC Braga 2 - 3 Sporting CP":0.03,"SC Braga 2 - 4 Sporting CP":0.016,"SC Braga 2 - 5 Sporting CP":0.045,"SC Braga 3 - 0 Sporting CP":0.016,"SC Braga 3 - 1 Sporting CP":0.027,"SC Braga 3 - 2 Sporting CP":0.0225,"SC Braga 3 - 3 Sporting CP":0.01,"SC Braga 3 - 4 Sporting CP":0.205,"SC Braga 3 - 5 Sporting CP":0.205,"SC Braga 4 - 0 Sporting CP":0.1,"SC Braga 4 - 1 Sporting CP":0.1035,"SC Braga 4 - 2 Sporting CP":0.0495,"SC Braga 4 - 3 Sporting CP":0.144,"SC Braga 4 - 4 Sporting CP":0.0195,"SC Braga 4 - 5 Sporting CP":0.125,"SC Braga 5 - 0 Sporting CP":0.23,"SC Braga 5 - 1 Sporting CP":0.125,"SC Braga 5 - 2 Sporting CP":0.0205,"SC Braga 5 - 3 Sporting CP":0.13,"SC Braga 5 - 4 Sporting CP":0.13,"SC Braga 5 - 5 Sporting CP":0.04},"updated_at":"2026-10-08T15:27:16Z"}},"computed_at":1791473567,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":null,"away":"#1a6f47"},"venue":{"name":"Estádio Municipal de Braga","city":"Braga","capacity":30286},"pulled":[],"published":[]}