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motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":0},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settled","section":"§1.3","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Pablo Hernández has been at CD Castellón for 2 years and 106 matches: a settled regime with a large, stable sample behind it.","evidence":{"manager":"Pablo Hernández","matches_in_charge":106,"tenure_days":812,"ppm":1.55,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.9,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Jokin Arambarri Arrizabalaga is 12 games into the job at Eibar, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Jokin Arambarri Arrizabalaga","matches_in_charge":12,"tenure_days":83,"ppm":1.92,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.5,"after_ppm":2.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"CD Castellón come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.083333333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":5.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Eibar come in on 3 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.0625,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":4,"days_rest":3.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.218,"defence":0.218,"effective_matches":17.5,"shrunk":0.31},"away":{"attack":0.052,"defence":0.128,"effective_matches":16.7,"shrunk":0.32}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"CD Castellón average 16 points more possession than Eibar, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":60.9,"shots":13.5,"xg_per_shot":0.122,"corners":4.3,"corners_per_shot":0.318,"finishing_vs_xg":0.45},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":44.7,"shots":12.8,"xg_per_shot":0.096,"corners":3.4,"corners_per_shot":0.266,"finishing_vs_xg":0.52},"possession_gap":16.2},"strength":0.6,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":3.4},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-3.4}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"CD Castellón have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.45,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Eibar have scored 6 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.52,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 409 km for Eibar.","evidence":{"travel_km":409},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":1.8,"temperature_c":16,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.2712040829916081},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"Nothing is mispriced enough to call. The closest was away -1 on the Asian line at 1.80, where the edge of 5.6 points does not clear the 6.6 needed against a 6.1% margin.","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6918,"created_at":"2026-10-31T02:15:20Z","event":{"id":214899,"event_date":"2026-11-06T19:30:00Z","status":"cancelled","home_team_id":1398,"home_team":"CD Castellón","away_team_id":1397,"away_team":"Eibar","league_id":38,"league_name":"Segunda División"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":57.9,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5789,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793991561,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ce3739","away":"#0e6eac"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio Municipal Castalia","city":"Castellon","capacity":15500},"pulled":[],"published":[]}