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Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Burgos Club de Fútbol have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.3,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Celta Fortuna have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.37,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"29 yellow cards in this referee's last 6 games, where 32 would be usual in this league, with nobody sent off. — though 6 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":6,"yellows_per_match":4.83,"reds_per_match":0,"league_yellows_per_match":5.35,"league_reds_per_match":0.314,"yellow_ratio":0.9,"red_ratio":0,"sample":6,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 412 km for Celta Fortuna.","evidence":{"travel_km":412},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":14.5,"temperature_c":17,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.27119972449242147},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7148,"created_at":"2026-11-01T02:15:23Z","event":{"id":214898,"event_date":"2026-11-07T13:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1401,"home_team":"Burgos Club de Fútbol","away_team_id":3883,"away_team":"Celta Fortuna","league_id":38,"league_name":"Segunda División"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":57,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5696,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1794053850,"verdicts":[{"narrative":"Burgos are in control as their attacking rhythm has surged over the last four outings. They are crafting quality opportunities that were absent previously, showing a side whose football is finally tracking with their recent positive results of three wins in six. Celta Fortuna struggle with form, having dropped two of their last six. While Burgos face a huge void in their attack, the combined output of Aldrine Kibet ensures they still carry a threat. Burgos will dictate the tempo through their improved creation of chances, while the visitors will lack the cutting edge to punish them. The result hinges on whether Burgos can overcome the missing goal tallies to punish a fading Celta Fortuna side.","drivers":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Burgos Club de Fútbol are without 3 players, and David González is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":3,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0.375,"combined_importance":0.306,"players":[{"player":"David González","role":"MID","reason":"Thigh Injury","goal_share":0.188,"importance":0.155,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9,"tags":["top_scorer"]},{"player":"Jon Karrikaburu","role":"ATT","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0.188,"importance":0.089,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":4,"tags":["top_scorer"]},{"player":"Grego Sierra","role":"DEF","reason":"yellow_card_accumulation_suspension","goal_share":0,"importance":0.062,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.766,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-1.7},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.7},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-0.8},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.6}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Celta Fortuna are without 2 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":2,"measured":2,"combined_goal_share":0.125,"combined_importance":0.113,"players":[{"player":"Bernard Somuah","role":"ATT","reason":"Ankle Injury","goal_share":0.125,"importance":0.067,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":7},{"player":"Pablo Gavián","role":"DEF","reason":"Cruciate Ligament Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.046,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":11}]},"strength":0.283,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.7},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.3},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.1}]}],"set_aside":[{"id":"availability.lineup_confirmed","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The starting elevens are confirmed. Celta Fortuna have made three changes from the side expected, with Anxo Rodríguez, Óscar Marcos and Hugo Cuenca out of the eleven.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"confirmed","changes":{"home":{"n":2,"out":["Javi Llabrés","José Gragera"],"in":["Álex Lizancos","Víctor Mollejo"]},"away":{"n":3,"out":["Anxo Rodríguez","Óscar Marcos","Hugo Cuenca"],"in":["Germain Milla","Jan Oliveras","Ángel Arcos"]}}},"strength":0.8,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Fredi Álvarez is 12 games into the job at Celta Fortuna, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Fredi Álvarez","matches_in_charge":12,"tenure_days":85,"ppm":1.08,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.6,"after_ppm":1.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]}]}],"locked":true,"plan":"monthly","locked_calls":1,"colors":{"home":"#ceb411","away":"#e5254e"},"venue":{"name":"Municipal El Plantio","city":"Burgos","capacity":12194},"pulled":[],"published":[]}