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unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.083333333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.075,"defence":-0.01,"effective_matches":16.2,"shrunk":0.33},"away":{"attack":-0.007,"defence":-0.027,"effective_matches":15.5,"shrunk":0.34}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":50.5,"shots":15.3,"xg_per_shot":0.116,"corners":4.8,"corners_per_shot":0.316,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.18},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":49.9,"shots":13.2,"xg_per_shot":0.112,"corners":5.4,"corners_per_shot":0.406,"finishing_vs_xg":0.35},"possession_gap":0.6},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Granada are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.18,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Real Valladolid have scored 4 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.35,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"123 yellow cards in this referee's last 30 games, where 158 would be usual in this league, and 7 reds.","evidence":{"matches":30,"yellows_per_match":4.1,"reds_per_match":0.233,"league_yellows_per_match":5.26,"league_reds_per_match":0.286,"yellow_ratio":0.78,"red_ratio":0.82},"strength":0.198,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":-4.9}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 510 km for Real Valladolid.","evidence":{"travel_km":510},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":2.2,"temperature_c":14,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.2457781610867681},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Granada take the points here because their visitors are missing too many creative outlets. Both sides enter this fixture trending upward, having crafted noticeably superior opportunities over their last four matches than previously. Granada hold the momentum through winning three of their past six, whereas the visitors managed only two wins from the same span. The away team suffers a major creative blow by losing the playmaker who supplied more assists than anyone else in their squad, including a pair in that heavy five-goal victory against Albacete Balompié on October 12, alongside missing a significant chunk of their overall goalscoring threat up front and in midfield. That leaves the attacking structure severely depleted. The decisive factor will be Granada capitalizing on a visiting lineup stripped of its primary chance provider.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5567,"created_at":"2026-10-17T02:15:26Z","event":{"id":214884,"event_date":"2026-10-23T18:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1261,"home_team":"Granada","away_team_id":1263,"away_team":"Real Valladolid","league_id":38,"league_name":"Segunda División"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":42,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4202,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792759837,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#c22031","away":"#2a6e44"},"venue":{"name":"Estadio Nuevo Los Carmenes","city":"Granada","capacity":19189},"pulled":[],"published":[]}