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Larcamon","matches_in_charge":16,"tenure_days":354,"ppm":1.75,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.5,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.bounce","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Joseba Etxeberria is 2 games into the job at Albacete Balompié. The new-manager bounce window is live but reverts by around game six.","evidence":{"manager":"Joseba Etxeberria","matches_in_charge":2,"tenure_days":12,"ppm":0,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.5,"after_ppm":0,"delta":null}},"strength":0.467,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":2.8}]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sporting Gijón come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.895833333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Albacete Balompié come in on 5 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":5.1875,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":5.2},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.027,"defence":0.097,"effective_matches":16.1,"shrunk":0.33},"away":{"attack":-0.11,"defence":-0.136,"effective_matches":16.1,"shrunk":0.33}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; Albacete Balompié work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":50.2,"shots":10.9,"xg_per_shot":0.09,"corners":3.5,"corners_per_shot":0.321,"finishing_vs_xg":0.44},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":47.9,"shots":12.8,"xg_per_shot":0.095,"corners":5.8,"corners_per_shot":0.45,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.63},"possession_gap":2.3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sporting Gijón have scored 5 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.44,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Albacete Balompié have scored 8 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.63,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":6.1,"temperature_c":18,"description":"clear"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.2644087430353225},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5035,"created_at":"2026-10-11T02:15:30Z","event":{"id":214875,"event_date":"2026-10-17T16:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1267,"home_team":"Sporting Gijón","away_team_id":1395,"away_team":"Albacete Balompié","league_id":38,"league_name":"Segunda División"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":47.8,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4777,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792037635,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#d21127","away":"#4b3535"},"venue":{"name":"El Molinón","city":"Gijon","capacity":30000},"pulled":[],"published":[]}