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projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.714,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.286,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":32,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":15,"points":11,"games_left":32,"gap_to_leader":10,"gap_to_safety":3,"gap_to_europe":5},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":3,"points":20,"games_left":32,"gap_to_leader":1,"gap_to_safety":12,"gap_to_europe":-4},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-0, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":-1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.settling","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Rubén de la Barrera is 14 games into the job at UD Las Palmas, past the bounce window, where an early lift usually fades back toward the side's real level.","evidence":{"manager":"Rubén de la Barrera","matches_in_charge":14,"tenure_days":355,"ppm":1.21,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":1.8,"delta":null}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.settled","section":"§1.3","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Pablo Hernández has been at CD Castellón for 2 years and 102 matches: a settled regime with a large, stable sample behind it.","evidence":{"manager":"Pablo Hernández","matches_in_charge":102,"tenure_days":792,"ppm":1.51,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.9,"after_ppm":1.6,"delta":null}},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"UD Las Palmas come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.104166666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.1},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"CD Castellón come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.291666666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.003,"defence":-0.023,"effective_matches":16.3,"shrunk":0.33},"away":{"attack":0.182,"defence":0.15,"effective_matches":17,"shrunk":0.32}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"CD Castellón average 9 points more possession than UD Las Palmas, so this should be one side with the ball and one without it.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":52.4,"shots":9.9,"xg_per_shot":0.087,"corners":3.9,"corners_per_shot":0.395,"finishing_vs_xg":0.72},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":60.9,"shots":14.2,"xg_per_shot":0.122,"corners":4.9,"corners_per_shot":0.345,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.4},"possession_gap":-8.5},"strength":0.34,"moves":[{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":1.8},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-1.8}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"UD Las Palmas have scored 9 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.72,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"CD Castellón have scored 5 fewer than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.4,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No referee appointed or recorded for this fixture yet.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":12.6,"temperature_c":22,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.2644087430353225},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":null,"external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5015,"created_at":"2026-10-11T02:15:30Z","event":{"id":214871,"event_date":"2026-10-17T19:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":1266,"home_team":"UD Las Palmas","away_team_id":1398,"away_team":"CD Castellón","league_id":38,"league_name":"Segunda División"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":46.4,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4639,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792037609,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0c4c92","away":"#ce3739"},"venue":{"name":"Gran Canaria","city":"Las Palmas de Gran Canaria","capacity":32392},"pulled":[],"published":[]}