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Wolverhampton have made four changes from the side expected, with Hugo Bueno, Kieran Trippier and Rafiki Saïd out of the eleven.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"confirmed","changes":{"home":{"n":1,"out":["Daniel Imray"],"in":["Max Cleworth"]},"away":{"n":4,"out":["Hugo Bueno","Kieran Trippier","Rafiki Saïd","Tawanda Chirewa"],"in":["Toti Gomes","Jackson Tchatchoua","Rodrigo Gomes","Mateus Mané"]}}},"strength":0.8,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":31,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":16,"points":17,"games_left":31,"gap_to_leader":11,"gap_to_safety":3,"gap_to_europe":8},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":2,"points":27,"games_left":31,"gap_to_leader":1,"gap_to_safety":13,"gap_to_europe":-2},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Phil Parkinson has 27 matches in charge at Wrexham, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Phil Parkinson","matches_in_charge":27,"tenure_days":219,"ppm":1.19,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.9,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Cesar Peixoto has 22 matches in charge at Wolverhampton, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Cesar Peixoto","matches_in_charge":22,"tenure_days":247,"ppm":1.91,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.2,"after_ppm":0.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.062,"defence":0.061,"effective_matches":17.3,"shrunk":0.32},"away":{"attack":0.132,"defence":0.169,"effective_matches":10.9,"shrunk":0.42}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":49.3,"shots":12,"xg_per_shot":0.088,"corners":4.2,"corners_per_shot":0.347,"finishing_vs_xg":0.19},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":52.8,"shots":15.4,"xg_per_shot":0.099,"corners":6.6,"corners_per_shot":0.427,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.2},"possession_gap":-3.4},"strength":0.137,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Wrexham are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.19,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Wolverhampton are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.2,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"127 yellow cards in this referee's last 40 games, where 152 would be usual in this league, and 5 reds.","evidence":{"matches":40,"yellows_per_match":3.17,"reds_per_match":0.125,"league_yellows_per_match":3.79,"league_reds_per_match":0.116,"yellow_ratio":0.84,"red_ratio":1.08},"strength":0.146,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":-3.7}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":12.8,"temperature_c":6,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.21904429885252602},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: short","preview":"Everything underneath the results points to Wolverhampton. Wrexham are trending up: in their last four games they have made clearly better chances than in the games before. And they shoot plenty but from poor positions: 19 on target from 87 shots in their last six. This is where it is decided: Wolverhampton make the better chances almost every week, and Wrexham have been out-created in most of their recent games.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7155,"created_at":"2026-11-01T02:15:23Z","event":{"id":214153,"event_date":"2026-11-07T12:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":206,"home_team":"Wrexham","away_team_id":11,"away_team":"Wolverhampton","league_id":12,"league_name":"Championship"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":42.8,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.428,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1794053845,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0a7657","away":"#eda522"},"venue":{"name":"Racecourse Ground","city":"Wrexham","capacity":10771},"pulled":[],"published":[]}