{"id":214148,"league_id":12,"league":"Championship","kickoff":1794054600,"home":"Portsmouth","away":"Stoke City","home_id":212,"away_id":215,"venue_id":1098,"rank":4,"status":"notstarted","provisional":false,"lineup_status":"confirmed","confidence":0.818,"score":null,"live_score":null,"lambda":[1.41,0.98],"read":{"text":"Too close to call","side":null},"pass":"Nothing to take on Portsmouth against Stoke City. There is a likely outcome here, but every bookmaker has it shorter than it deserves, so there is nothing to take.","flags":[{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","note":"Stoke City are without 4 players, and Eric Bocat is a real loss."},{"id":"form.home","section":"§2.1","note":"Portsmouth have taken 2.33 points a game from their last 6 (4W 2D 0L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.8, and 3.00 a game at home."},{"id":"form.away","section":"§2.1","note":"Stoke City have taken 2.17 points a game from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.8, and 3.00 a game on the road."},{"id":"market.movement","section":"§7.1","note":"Since opening, AWAY has drifted 10.7% since the market opened."}],"lambda_home":1.4088987256376653,"lambda_away":0.9765105805975882,"corner_rate":10.44,"card_rate":0.129,"lineups":{"status":"confirmed","confidence":null,"home":{"formation":"4-2-3-1","players":[{"id":6241,"name":"Nicolas Schmid","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":6242,"name":"Terry Devlin","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":6244,"name":"Regan Poole","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":10612,"name":"Madiodio Dia","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":3024,"name":"Jayden Meghoma","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":6238,"name":"Ebou Adams","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":6253,"name":"Marlon Pack","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":6254,"name":"Adrian Segečić","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":33732,"name":"Odin Bailey","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":33754,"name":"Tyrese Shade","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":2748,"name":"Abu Kamara","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":5230,"name":"Daniel Bielica","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":6699,"name":"Zak Swanson","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":7031,"name":"Conor Shaughnessy","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":12784,"name":"Rocco Robert Shein","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":65497,"name":"Eoin Kenny","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":6250,"name":"Josh Murphy","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":4428,"name":"Ryan Kavuma-McQueen","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":7086,"name":"Thomas Waddingham","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":6259,"name":"Franco Umeh","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":null}],"confidence":null},"away":{"formation":"3-4-3","players":[{"id":6046,"name":"Viktor Johansson","position":"G","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":6049,"name":"Ben Wilmot","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":6051,"name":"Bosun Lawal","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":5969,"name":"Luke Graham","position":"D","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":6159,"name":"Ben Johnson","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":6523,"name":"Ethan Galbraith","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":6079,"name":"Djibril Soumaré","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":6730,"name":"Junior Tchamadeu","position":"M","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":9741,"name":"Jack McGlynn","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":6056,"name":"Róbert Boženík","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":6053,"name":"Million Manhoef","position":"F","starting":true,"ai_score":null},{"id":6217,"name":"Joshua Griffiths","position":"G","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":6047,"name":"Maksym Talovierov","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":9052,"name":"Luca Bombino","position":"D","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":6054,"name":"Jun-Ho Bae","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":6064,"name":"Tomáš Rigo","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":6167,"name":"Svante Ingelsson","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":433,"name":"Justin Devenny","position":"M","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":6057,"name":"Sam Gallagher","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":null},{"id":6153,"name":"George Hirst","position":"F","starting":false,"ai_score":null}],"confidence":null},"unavailable":[{"id":6251,"name":"Colby Bishop","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Knee Injury"},{"id":6945,"name":"Connor Ogilvie","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Muscle Injury"},{"id":6256,"name":"John Swift","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Knee Injury"},{"id":6093,"name":"Keshi Anderson","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Hamstring Injury"},{"id":90294,"name":"Luke Brooke-Smith","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Ankle Injury"},{"id":2294,"name":"Marko Milovanović","team_id":null,"side":"home","reason":"Muscle Injury"},{"id":24014,"name":"Ato Ampah","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Knee Surgery"},{"id":6731,"name":"Eric Bocat","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Muscle Injury"},{"id":6065,"name":"Lamine Cissé","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Muscle Injury"},{"id":6057,"name":"Sam Gallagher","team_id":null,"side":"away","reason":"Muscle Injury"}]},"people":[{"id":6241,"name":"Nicolas Schmid","side":"home"},{"id":6242,"name":"Terry Devlin","side":"home"},{"id":6244,"name":"Regan Poole","side":"home"},{"id":10612,"name":"Madiodio Dia","side":"home"},{"id":3024,"name":"Jayden Meghoma","side":"home"},{"id":6238,"name":"Ebou Adams","side":"home"},{"id":6253,"name":"Marlon Pack","side":"home"},{"id":6254,"name":"Adrian Segečić","side":"home"},{"id":33732,"name":"Odin Bailey","side":"home"},{"id":33754,"name":"Tyrese Shade","side":"home"},{"id":2748,"name":"Abu Kamara","side":"home"},{"id":5230,"name":"Daniel Bielica","side":"home"},{"id":6699,"name":"Zak Swanson","side":"home"},{"id":7031,"name":"Conor Shaughnessy","side":"home"},{"id":12784,"name":"Rocco Robert Shein","side":"home"},{"id":65497,"name":"Eoin Kenny","side":"home"},{"id":6250,"name":"Josh Murphy","side":"home"},{"id":4428,"name":"Ryan Kavuma-McQueen","side":"home"},{"id":7086,"name":"Thomas Waddingham","side":"home"},{"id":6259,"name":"Franco Umeh","side":"home"},{"id":479,"name":"Benjamin Arthur","side":"home"},{"id":6945,"name":"Connor Ogilvie","side":"home"},{"id":33945,"name":"Michael Ani","side":"home"},{"id":6251,"name":"Colby Bishop","side":"home"},{"id":90294,"name":"Luke Brooke-Smith","side":"home"},{"id":2294,"name":"Marko Milovanović","side":"home"},{"id":6252,"name":"Harvey Blair","side":"home"},{"id":33947,"name":"Nathaniel Chioma","side":"home"},{"id":6941,"name":"Ben Killip","side":"home"},{"id":6256,"name":"John Swift","side":"home"},{"id":6247,"name":"Márk Kosznovszky","side":"home"},{"id":6093,"name":"Keshi Anderson","side":"home"},{"id":3978,"name":"Iyad Mohamed","side":"home"},{"id":6046,"name":"Viktor Johansson","side":"away"},{"id":6049,"name":"Ben Wilmot","side":"away"},{"id":6051,"name":"Bosun Lawal","side":"away"},{"id":5969,"name":"Luke Graham","side":"away"},{"id":6159,"name":"Ben Johnson","side":"away"},{"id":6523,"name":"Ethan Galbraith","side":"away"},{"id":6079,"name":"Djibril Soumaré","side":"away"},{"id":6730,"name":"Junior Tchamadeu","side":"away"},{"id":9741,"name":"Jack McGlynn","side":"away"},{"id":6056,"name":"Róbert Boženík","side":"away"},{"id":6053,"name":"Million Manhoef","side":"away"},{"id":6217,"name":"Joshua Griffiths","side":"away"},{"id":6047,"name":"Maksym Talovierov","side":"away"},{"id":9052,"name":"Luca Bombino","side":"away"},{"id":6054,"name":"Jun-Ho Bae","side":"away"},{"id":6064,"name":"Tomáš Rigo","side":"away"},{"id":6167,"name":"Svante Ingelsson","side":"away"},{"id":433,"name":"Justin Devenny","side":"away"},{"id":6057,"name":"Sam Gallagher","side":"away"},{"id":6153,"name":"George Hirst","side":"away"},{"id":6050,"name":"Aaron Cresswell","side":"away"},{"id":6731,"name":"Eric Bocat","side":"away"},{"id":6062,"name":"Ben Gibson","side":"away"},{"id":35388,"name":"Freddie Anderson","side":"away"},{"id":66032,"name":"Laurence Giani","side":"away"},{"id":6065,"name":"Lamine Cissé","side":"away"},{"id":72698,"name":"Tyler Martin","side":"away"},{"id":8686,"name":"Frank Fielding","side":"away"},{"id":6058,"name":"Ben Pearson","side":"away"},{"id":24014,"name":"Ato Ampah","side":"away"}],"players":[{"id":2294,"name":"Marko Milovanović","side":"home","team":"Portsmouth","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Muscle Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-30","season":{"apps":13,"starts":7,"goals":3,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":4,"team_games":21,"tracked_apps":13,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Bristol City","kickoff":1788012000,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"1-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.096,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":145,"country":0}},{"id":6251,"name":"Colby Bishop","side":"home","team":"Portsmouth","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Knee Injury","expected_return":"2026-12-10","season":{"apps":10,"starts":6,"goals":1,"assists":0,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":21,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Blackburn Rovers","kickoff":1789826400,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-2","won":false},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.04,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":6945,"name":"Connor Ogilvie","side":"home","team":"Portsmouth","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"LB","status":"out","reason":"Muscle Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-20","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":6256,"name":"John Swift","side":"home","team":"Portsmouth","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"AM","status":"out","reason":"Knee Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-30","season":{"apps":2,"starts":0,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":21,"tracked_apps":2,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":6093,"name":"Keshi Anderson","side":"home","team":"Portsmouth","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"LW","status":"out","reason":"Hamstring Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-30","season":{"apps":2,"starts":0,"goals":0,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":0,"team_games":21,"tracked_apps":2,"tracked_starts":0},"recent":{"apps":2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":6242,"name":"Terry Devlin","side":"home","team":"Portsmouth","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"RB","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":14,"starts":10,"goals":4,"assists":0,"big_chances":0,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":21,"tracked_apps":14,"tracked_starts":10},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":3,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Swansea City","kickoff":1793735100,"goals":2,"assists":0,"score":"3-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","best_performer"],"importance":0.15,"country":{"team":"Northern Ireland","apps":1,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":{"games":2,"minutes":100,"country":0}},{"id":2748,"name":"Abu Kamara","side":"home","team":"Portsmouth","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"RW","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":14,"starts":13,"goals":0,"assists":1,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":4,"team_games":21,"tracked_apps":14,"tracked_starts":13},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":0,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Lincoln City","kickoff":1787398200,"goals":0,"assists":1,"score":"3-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.058,"country":null,"load":{"games":2,"minutes":97,"country":0}},{"id":6731,"name":"Eric Bocat","side":"away","team":"Stoke City","club":null,"role":"DEF","position":"LB","status":"out","reason":"Muscle Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-20","season":{"apps":12,"starts":10,"goals":2,"assists":2,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":4,"team_games":21,"tracked_apps":12,"tracked_starts":10},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Watford","kickoff":1789221600,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.108,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":6057,"name":"Sam Gallagher","side":"away","team":"Stoke City","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Muscle Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-20","season":{"apps":8,"starts":4,"goals":2,"assists":1,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":1,"team_games":21,"tracked_apps":8,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":0,"scoredIn":1,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Sheffield United","kickoff":1789817400,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.082,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":6065,"name":"Lamine Cissé","side":"away","team":"Stoke City","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"ST","status":"out","reason":"Muscle Injury","expected_return":"2026-11-20","season":{"apps":9,"starts":6,"goals":1,"assists":1,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":4,"team_games":21,"tracked_apps":9,"tracked_starts":6},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Bolton Wanderers","kickoff":1791640800,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-1","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.065,"country":null,"load":{"games":1,"minutes":21,"country":0}},{"id":24014,"name":"Ato Ampah","side":"away","team":"Stoke City","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"RW","status":"out","reason":"Knee Surgery","expected_return":"2027-01-20","season":null,"recent":null,"standout":null,"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0,"country":null,"load":null},{"id":9741,"name":"Jack McGlynn","side":"away","team":"Stoke City","club":null,"role":"MID","position":"CM","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":10,"starts":7,"goals":4,"assists":2,"big_chances":1,"clean_sheets":3,"team_games":21,"tracked_apps":10,"tracked_starts":7},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":2,"assists":1,"scoredIn":2,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Preston North End","kickoff":1793449800,"goals":1,"assists":1,"score":"2-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":["top_scorer","best_performer"],"importance":0.22,"country":null,"load":{"games":3,"minutes":280,"country":0}},{"id":6056,"name":"Róbert Boženík","side":"away","team":"Stoke City","club":null,"role":"ATT","position":"FWD","status":"fit","reason":null,"expected_return":null,"season":{"apps":13,"starts":4,"goals":3,"assists":1,"big_chances":2,"clean_sheets":2,"team_games":21,"tracked_apps":13,"tracked_starts":4},"recent":{"apps":5,"goals":1,"assists":0,"scoredIn":0,"country":0},"standout":{"opponent":"Oldham Athletic","kickoff":1786197600,"goals":1,"assists":0,"score":"2-0","won":true},"strengths":[],"tags":[],"importance":0.108,"country":{"team":"Slovakia","apps":2,"goals":0,"assists":0,"tournament":null,"lately":null},"load":{"games":3,"minutes":169,"country":0}}],"extras":{"teams":{"home":212,"away":215},"split":{"home":{"above":{"w":2,"d":1,"l":1},"below":{"w":3,"d":3,"l":0}},"away":{"above":{"w":0,"d":0,"l":1},"below":{"w":7,"d":2,"l":0}}},"referee":null,"managers":{"home":{"id":182,"name":"John Mousinho","vs":{"w":1,"d":0,"l":1,"last":{"kickoff":1777125600,"score":"3-1","result":"W"}}},"away":{"id":172,"name":"Mark Robins","vs":{"w":1,"d":0,"l":1,"last":{"kickoff":1777125600,"score":"1-3","result":"L"}}}},"best_xi":[{"id":9741,"name":"Jack McGlynn","team_id":215,"position":"M","matches":10,"goals":4,"assists":2}],"players":{"2294":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Almería","fee":3500000,"at":1784764800}},"2748":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Hull City","fee":2900000,"at":1786320000}},"6056":{"caps":57,"goals":2,"country":"Slovakia","signed":null},"6065":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Bastia","fee":2500000,"at":1755129600}},"6242":{"caps":15,"goals":0,"country":"Northern Ireland","signed":null},"9741":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Houston Dynamo","fee":4300000,"at":1788220800}},"24014":{"caps":null,"goals":null,"country":null,"signed":{"from":"Chelsea U21","fee":3500000,"at":1769990400}}}},"notable":[{"id":6294,"name":"Will Lankshear","goals":13,"rank":1},{"id":6450,"name":"Andri Guðjohnsen","goals":9,"rank":2},{"id":33894,"name":"Jack Moylan","goals":9,"rank":3},{"id":4164,"name":"Cyle Larin","goals":7,"rank":4},{"id":1641,"name":"Jarrod Bowen","goals":7,"rank":5},{"id":8744,"name":"August Priske","goals":6,"rank":6},{"id":3905,"name":"Fer López","goals":6,"rank":7},{"id":26758,"name":"Sam Dalby","goals":6,"rank":8},{"id":6210,"name":"Isaac Price","goals":5,"rank":9},{"id":6550,"name":"Kieffer Moore","goals":5,"rank":10},{"id":1636,"name":"Konstantinos Mavropanos","goals":5,"rank":11},{"id":8991,"name":"Mohamed Touré","goals":5,"rank":12},{"id":6076,"name":"Patrick Bamford","goals":5,"rank":13},{"id":6308,"name":"Scott Twine","goals":5,"rank":14},{"id":6537,"name":"Adam Idah","goals":4,"rank":15}],"round_label":"Regular season · Matchday 15","neutral":false,"h2h":{"total_matches":10,"home_wins":4,"draws":1,"away_wins":5,"home_goals":16,"away_goals":18,"avg_total_goals":3.4,"home_win_rate":0.4,"away_win_rate":0.5,"recent_matches":[{"away":"Portsmouth","date":"2026-04-25T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Stoke City","score":"1-3","event_id":3915,"away_score":3,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":212,"home_team_id":215},{"away":"Stoke City","date":"2025-10-25T11:30:00+00:00","home":"Portsmouth","score":"0-1","event_id":3508,"away_score":1,"home_score":0,"away_team_id":215,"home_team_id":212},{"away":"Stoke City","date":"2025-01-22T19:45:00+00:00","home":"Portsmouth","score":"3-1","event_id":304211,"away_score":1,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":215,"home_team_id":212},{"away":"Portsmouth","date":"2024-10-02T18:45:00+00:00","home":"Stoke City","score":"6-1","event_id":303969,"away_score":1,"home_score":6,"away_team_id":212,"home_team_id":215},{"away":"Portsmouth","date":"2014-08-27T18:45:00+00:00","home":"Stoke City","score":"3-0","event_id":391140,"away_score":0,"home_score":3,"away_team_id":212,"home_team_id":215},{"away":"Stoke City","date":"2010-02-20T17:30:00+00:00","home":"Portsmouth","score":"1-2","event_id":470182,"away_score":2,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":215,"home_team_id":212},{"away":"Portsmouth","date":"2009-11-22T16:00:00+00:00","home":"Stoke City","score":"1-0","event_id":470038,"away_score":0,"home_score":1,"away_team_id":212,"home_team_id":215},{"away":"Stoke City","date":"2009-10-27T19:45:00+00:00","home":"Portsmouth","score":"4-0","event_id":461869,"away_score":0,"home_score":4,"away_team_id":215,"home_team_id":212},{"away":"Portsmouth","date":"2009-02-21T15:00:00+00:00","home":"Stoke City","score":"2-2","event_id":481345,"away_score":2,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":212,"home_team_id":215},{"away":"Stoke City","date":"2008-10-05T14:00:00+00:00","home":"Portsmouth","score":"2-1","event_id":481156,"away_score":1,"home_score":2,"away_team_id":215,"home_team_id":212}]},"standings":{"home":{"team_id":212,"position":10,"played":14,"points":22,"goal_diff":3,"team_name":"Portsmouth","won":6,"drawn":4,"lost":4,"goals_for":19,"goals_against":16,"group":null},"away":{"team_id":215,"position":4,"played":14,"points":26,"goal_diff":5,"team_name":"Stoke City","won":8,"drawn":2,"lost":4,"goals_for":22,"goals_against":17,"group":null},"size":24},"form":{"home":{"matches":6,"ppg":2.33,"record":"4-2-0","goals_for":1.67,"goals_against":0.83,"clean_sheets":2,"streak":"unbeaten 6","sequence":"WWDWDW","venue_ppg":3},"away":{"matches":6,"ppg":2.17,"record":"4-1-1","goals_for":1.5,"goals_against":0.83,"clean_sheets":3,"streak":"unbeaten 4","sequence":"WLWDWW","venue_ppg":3}},"ledger":[{"id":"availability.home.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Portsmouth are without 7 players, none of them central to how the side plays.","evidence":{"count":7,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0.222,"combined_importance":0.136,"players":[{"player":"Marko Milovanović","role":"ATT","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0.167,"importance":0.096,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Colby Bishop","role":"ATT","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0.056,"importance":0.04,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Connor Ogilvie","role":"DEF","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":8},{"player":"John Swift","role":"MID","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Keshi Anderson","role":"MID","reason":"Hamstring Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9},{"player":"Luke Brooke-Smith","role":"ATT","reason":"Ankle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":6},{"player":"Iyad Mohamed","role":"MID","reason":"Calf Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.34,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-2.1},{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":0.4},{"channel":"corners","side":"home","pct":-1.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.3}]},{"id":"availability.away.absences","section":"§2.4","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Stoke City are without 4 players, and Eric Bocat is a real loss.","evidence":{"count":4,"measured":3,"combined_goal_share":0.25,"combined_importance":0.255,"players":[{"player":"Eric Bocat","role":"DEF","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0.1,"importance":0.108,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":11},{"player":"Sam Gallagher","role":"ATT","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0.1,"importance":0.082,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Lamine Cissé","role":"ATT","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0.05,"importance":0.065,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Ato Ampah","role":"MID","reason":"Knee Surgery","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.637,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-2.8},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.8},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-1.4},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.4}]},{"id":"availability.lineup_confirmed","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The starting elevens are confirmed, so selection is known rather than guessed.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"confirmed","changes":{"home":{"n":2,"out":["Zak Swanson","Ryan Kavuma-McQueen"],"in":["Ebou Adams","Odin Bailey"]},"away":{"n":2,"out":["Maksym Talovierov","George Hirst"],"in":["Bosun Lawal","Junior Tchamadeu"]}}},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":31,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":10,"points":22,"games_left":31,"gap_to_leader":6,"gap_to_safety":8,"gap_to_europe":3},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":4,"points":26,"games_left":31,"gap_to_leader":2,"gap_to_safety":12,"gap_to_europe":-1},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-3, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"John Mousinho has 29 matches in charge at Portsmouth, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"John Mousinho","matches_in_charge":29,"tenure_days":219,"ppm":1.48,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.7,"after_ppm":1.8,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Mark Robins has 28 matches in charge at Stoke City, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Mark Robins","matches_in_charge":28,"tenure_days":219,"ppm":1.5,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.9,"after_ppm":0.8,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Portsmouth come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.6979166666666665,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":3.7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Stoke City come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.6979166666666665,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":3.7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.087,"defence":0.09,"effective_matches":18.4,"shrunk":0.3},"away":{"attack":-0.116,"defence":-0.018,"effective_matches":17.9,"shrunk":0.31}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":49.8,"shots":13.5,"xg_per_shot":0.08,"corners":5.8,"corners_per_shot":0.426,"finishing_vs_xg":0.17},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":47.2,"shots":12,"xg_per_shot":0.082,"corners":5.1,"corners_per_shot":0.424,"finishing_vs_xg":0.69},"possession_gap":2.6},"strength":0.103,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Portsmouth are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.17,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Stoke City have scored 8 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.69,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"50 yellow cards in this referee's last 20 games, where 76 would be usual in this league, and 2 reds. — though 20 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":20,"yellows_per_match":2.5,"reds_per_match":0.1,"league_yellows_per_match":3.79,"league_reds_per_match":0.116,"yellow_ratio":0.66,"red_ratio":0.86,"sample":20,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 256 km for Stoke City.","evidence":{"travel_km":256},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":17.1,"temperature_c":8,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.21904429885252602},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Neither of these is in good shape underneath the results. Portsmouth are trending down: their last four games have been their poorest for the chances they make and allow. Meanwhile, Stoke City have scored 18 in their last ten from chances that would usually bring about 11. That finishing is running hot. On top of that, they have conceded only 8 in their last ten when the chances they allowed would usually cost about 13. Their goalkeeper and their luck have carried them. The side that stops giving up the better chances first takes this one.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":7153,"created_at":"2026-11-01T02:15:23Z","event":{"id":214148,"event_date":"2026-11-07T12:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":212,"home_team":"Portsmouth","away_team_id":215,"away_team":"Stoke City","league_id":12,"league_name":"Championship"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":42.6,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.4259,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1794053845,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0b1b84","away":null},"venue":{"name":"Fratton Park","city":"Portsmouth","capacity":20688},"pulled":[],"published":[]}