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Erhahon","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0.053,"importance":0.055,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":11},{"player":"Atsuki Ito","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0.105,"importance":0.043,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":11},{"player":"John McAtee","role":"MID","reason":"Knee Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.026,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":11},{"player":"Eoin Toal","role":"DEF","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Jayden Nelson","role":"ATT","reason":"Hamstring Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4},{"player":"Ryan Hardie","role":"ATT","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":4}]},"strength":0.626,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-2},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":1.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.9},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.7}]},{"id":"availability.lineup_confirmed","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The starting elevens are confirmed, so selection is known rather than guessed.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"confirmed","changes":null},"strength":0.3,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":31,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":23,"points":7,"games_left":31,"gap_to_leader":21,"gap_to_safety":-7,"gap_to_europe":18},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":17,"points":17,"games_left":31,"gap_to_leader":11,"gap_to_safety":3,"gap_to_europe":8},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"THIN","note":"No reverse fixture on record this season, so there is no revenge angle to read.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"John Eustace has 28 matches in charge at Derby County, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"John Eustace","matches_in_charge":28,"tenure_days":218,"ppm":0.82,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":1.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Steven Schumacher has 70 matches in charge at Bolton Wanderers, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Steven Schumacher","matches_in_charge":70,"tenure_days":451,"ppm":1.57,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.1,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Derby County come in on 3 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.0104166666666665,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bolton Wanderers come in on 3 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.0104166666666665,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.152,"defence":-0.154,"effective_matches":18,"shrunk":0.31},"away":{"attack":-0.025,"defence":-0.194,"effective_matches":10.7,"shrunk":0.43}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":48.6,"shots":11.7,"xg_per_shot":0.07,"corners":5.5,"corners_per_shot":0.471,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.15},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":50,"shots":14.7,"xg_per_shot":0.088,"corners":5.8,"corners_per_shot":0.392,"finishing_vs_xg":0.13},"possession_gap":-1.4},"strength":0.1,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Derby County are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.15,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Bolton Wanderers are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.13,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"71 yellow cards in this referee's last 19 games, where 72 would be usual in this league, and 1 red. — though 19 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":19,"yellows_per_match":3.74,"reds_per_match":0.053,"league_yellows_per_match":3.8,"league_reds_per_match":0.117,"yellow_ratio":0.98,"red_ratio":0.45,"sample":19,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 104 km for Bolton Wanderers.","evidence":{"travel_km":104},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":6.7,"temperature_c":9,"description":"rain"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.21350869774487852},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Neither of these is in good shape underneath the results. Derby County have been out-created in seven of their last ten games. On top of that, they have faced six or more efforts on target in four of their last six games. They are getting opened up. Meanwhile, Bolton Wanderers have been out-created in seven of their last ten games. The side that stops giving up the better chances first takes this one.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6912,"created_at":"2026-10-31T02:15:20Z","event":{"id":214147,"event_date":"2026-11-06T20:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":216,"home_team":"Derby County","away_team_id":1247,"away_team":"Bolton Wanderers","league_id":12,"league_name":"Championship"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":37.2,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3717,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793995153,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#9c9697","away":"#263c7e"},"venue":{"name":"Pride Park Stadium","city":"Derby","capacity":33597},"pulled":[],"published":[]}