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Wilder","matches_in_charge":28,"tenure_days":211,"ppm":1.64,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.4,"after_ppm":1.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Phil Parkinson has 25 matches in charge at Wrexham, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Phil Parkinson","matches_in_charge":25,"tenure_days":211,"ppm":1.16,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.9,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sheffield United come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.354166666666667,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.4},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Wrexham come in on 6 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.25,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":2,"days_rest":6.3},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.025,"defence":0.001,"effective_matches":17.1,"shrunk":0.32},"away":{"attack":-0.046,"defence":0.014,"effective_matches":16.3,"shrunk":0.33}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; Wrexham work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":46.7,"shots":11.6,"xg_per_shot":0.106,"corners":3.9,"corners_per_shot":0.338,"finishing_vs_xg":0.27},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":49.8,"shots":12.5,"xg_per_shot":0.092,"corners":5.5,"corners_per_shot":0.44,"finishing_vs_xg":0.1},"possession_gap":-3.1},"strength":0.123,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sheffield United have scored 3 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.27,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Wrexham are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.1,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"88 yellow cards in this referee's last 33 games, where 128 would be usual in this league, and 1 red.","evidence":{"matches":33,"yellows_per_match":2.67,"reds_per_match":0.03,"league_yellows_per_match":3.88,"league_reds_per_match":0.132,"yellow_ratio":0.69,"red_ratio":0.23},"strength":0.281,"moves":[{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":-7}]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No travel distance reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":13.2,"temperature_c":8,"description":null},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.18899526775655479},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"The results here are not telling the whole story. Wrexham are trending up: in their last four games they have made clearly better chances than in the games before. On top of that, they shoot plenty but from poor positions: 19 on target from 79 shots in their last six. Whoever makes the better chances on the day takes this one.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":6232,"created_at":"2026-10-24T02:15:18Z","event":{"id":214124,"event_date":"2026-10-30T20:00:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":219,"home_team":"Sheffield United","away_team_id":206,"away_team":"Wrexham","league_id":12,"league_name":"Championship"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":38.2,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3825,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1793356192,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ed292d","away":"#0a7657"},"venue":{"name":"Bramall Lane","city":"Sheffield","capacity":32050},"pulled":[],"published":[]}