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Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":5},{"player":"Lewis Travis","role":"MID","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.05,"measured":false,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":9}]},"strength":0.328,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.5},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":2.5},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.1},{"channel":"cards","side":"both","pct":0.7}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.745,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.255,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":34,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":11,"points":15,"games_left":34,"gap_to_leader":10,"gap_to_safety":6,"gap_to_europe":4},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":23,"points":6,"games_left":34,"gap_to_leader":19,"gap_to_safety":-3,"gap_to_europe":13},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-2, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":1},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Chris Wilder has 27 matches in charge at Sheffield United, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Chris Wilder","matches_in_charge":27,"tenure_days":204,"ppm":1.67,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.4,"after_ppm":1.7,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"John Eustace has 25 matches in charge at Derby County, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"John Eustace","matches_in_charge":25,"tenure_days":204,"ppm":0.88,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.8,"after_ppm":1.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sheffield United come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.895833333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":6.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Derby County come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.895833333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":6.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":0.013,"defence":0,"effective_matches":16.7,"shrunk":0.32},"away":{"attack":-0.13,"defence":-0.056,"effective_matches":16.5,"shrunk":0.33}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":44.1,"shots":10.5,"xg_per_shot":0.11,"corners":3.6,"corners_per_shot":0.341,"finishing_vs_xg":0.26},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":51.4,"shots":12.3,"xg_per_shot":0.067,"corners":5.3,"corners_per_shot":0.432,"finishing_vs_xg":0},"possession_gap":-7.3},"strength":0.293,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-3}]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Sheffield United have scored 3 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.26,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Derby County are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"126 yellow cards in this referee's last 28 games, where 108 would be usual in this league, and 1 red. — though 28 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":28,"yellows_per_match":4.5,"reds_per_match":0.036,"league_yellows_per_match":3.86,"league_reds_per_match":0.135,"yellow_ratio":1.17,"red_ratio":0.26,"sample":28,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 51 km for Derby County.","evidence":{"travel_km":51},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":9,"temperature_c":13,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.15985256191664718},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Neither of these is in good shape underneath the results. At home, Sheffield United have been out-created in three of their last four home games. On top of that, they have scored 15 in their last ten from chances that would usually bring about 10. That finishing is running hot. Meanwhile, Derby County have been out-created in six of their last ten games. The side that stops giving up the better chances first takes this one.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5830,"created_at":"2026-10-18T02:15:33Z","event":{"id":214114,"event_date":"2026-10-24T11:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":219,"home_team":"Sheffield United","away_team_id":216,"away_team":"Derby County","league_id":12,"league_name":"Championship"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":52.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.5248,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792836341,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#ed292d","away":"#9c9697"},"venue":{"name":"Bramall Lane","city":"Sheffield","capacity":32050},"pulled":[],"published":[]}