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plays.","evidence":{"count":4,"measured":4,"combined_goal_share":0.167,"combined_importance":0.091,"players":[{"player":"Tairyk Arconte","role":"ATT","reason":"Ankle Injury","goal_share":0.167,"importance":0.063,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":4},{"player":"Lukas Jensen","role":"GK","reason":"Muscle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.016,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Filip Marschall","role":"GK","reason":"Ankle Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0.013,"measured":true,"doubtful":true,"cover_at_position":3},{"player":"Mathis Servais","role":"MID","reason":"Hamstring Injury","goal_share":0,"importance":0,"measured":true,"doubtful":false,"cover_at_position":14}]},"strength":0.227,"moves":[{"channel":"goals","side":"away","pct":-0.6},{"channel":"goals","side":"home","pct":0.3},{"channel":"corners","side":"away","pct":-0.3}]},{"id":"availability.rotation_risk","section":"§3.1","tier":1,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nobody has named a side yet, so this eleven is a projection.","evidence":{"lineup_status":"predicted","confidence":0.791,"cup_tie":false},"strength":0.209,"moves":[]},{"id":"stakes.season","section":"§5.1","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing much riding on this one for either side yet.","evidence":{"games_left":34,"home":{"state":"mid_table","position":13,"points":15,"games_left":34,"gap_to_leader":10,"gap_to_safety":6,"gap_to_europe":4},"away":{"state":"mid_table","position":12,"points":15,"games_left":34,"gap_to_leader":10,"gap_to_safety":6,"gap_to_europe":4},"six_pointer":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.derby","section":"§5.2","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Not a local derby.","evidence":{"derby":false},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fixture.revenge","section":"§5.3","tier":2,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"The reverse fixture finished 1-3, too close to carry a revenge motive.","evidence":{"reverse_margin":2},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.home.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"John Mousinho has 26 matches in charge at Portsmouth, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"John Mousinho","matches_in_charge":26,"tenure_days":204,"ppm":1.38,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":0.7,"after_ppm":1.8,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Alex Neil has 29 matches in charge at Millwall, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Alex Neil","matches_in_charge":29,"tenure_days":204,"ppm":1.41,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2,"after_ppm":1.5,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Portsmouth come in on 4 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":3.6979166666666665,"matchesIn7":2,"matchesIn14":4,"days_rest":3.7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Millwall come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.073,"defence":0.069,"effective_matches":17,"shrunk":0.32},"away":{"attack":0.078,"defence":0.043,"effective_matches":17.2,"shrunk":0.32}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":53,"shots":14.9,"xg_per_shot":0.082,"corners":6.1,"corners_per_shot":0.408,"finishing_vs_xg":0.03},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":46,"shots":12.7,"xg_per_shot":0.123,"corners":5,"corners_per_shot":0.395,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.14},"possession_gap":7},"strength":0.28,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Portsmouth are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.03,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Millwall are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.14,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"60 yellow cards in this referee's last 17 games, where 66 would be usual in this league, and 1 red. — though 17 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":17,"yellows_per_match":3.53,"reds_per_match":0.059,"league_yellows_per_match":3.86,"league_reds_per_match":0.135,"yellow_ratio":0.91,"red_ratio":0.44,"sample":17,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 104 km for Millwall.","evidence":{"travel_km":104},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":23.1,"temperature_c":15,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.15985256191664718},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Everything underneath the results points to Millwall. Millwall are happy without the ball: in two of the four games they had less of it, they still made the better chances. On top of that, they are trending up: in their last four games they have made clearly better chances than in the games before. If that carries on, Millwall should have the better of it.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5827,"created_at":"2026-10-18T02:15:33Z","event":{"id":214111,"event_date":"2026-10-24T11:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":212,"home_team":"Portsmouth","away_team_id":210,"away_team":"Millwall","league_id":12,"league_name":"Championship"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"H","favorite_prob":38.5,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.3846,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792836341,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#0b1b84","away":null},"venue":{"name":"Fratton Park","city":"Portsmouth","capacity":20688},"pulled":[],"published":[]}