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Jones","matches_in_charge":26,"tenure_days":204,"ppm":1.23,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":1.3,"after_ppm":1.2,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"manager.away.established","section":"§1.1","tier":3,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Philippe Clement has 28 matches in charge at Norwich City, long enough that the side plays the way he wants it to.","evidence":{"manager":"Philippe Clement","matches_in_charge":28,"tenure_days":204,"ppm":1.36,"appointment_effect":{"before_ppm":2.1,"after_ppm":1.8,"delta":null}},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.home","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Charlton Athletic come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":7,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":7},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.away","section":"§2.8","tier":4,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Norwich City come in on 7 days' rest, with nothing unusual in the schedule behind them.","evidence":{"daysRest":6.895833333333333,"matchesIn7":1,"matchesIn14":3,"days_rest":6.9},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.opponent_adjustment","section":"§4.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Team strength is estimated against the actual quality of opponents faced, so a soft run of fixtures does not read as form.","evidence":{"home":{"attack":-0.182,"defence":-0.042,"effective_matches":15.9,"shrunk":0.33},"away":{"attack":0.004,"defence":-0.055,"effective_matches":16.6,"shrunk":0.33}},"strength":0.2,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Neither side holds a clear possession edge on recent evidence; Charlton Athletic work noticeably more of their attacks into wide areas.","evidence":{"home":{"matches":12,"possession":40.8,"shots":9.8,"xg_per_shot":0.1,"corners":4.7,"corners_per_shot":0.475,"finishing_vs_xg":-0.06},"away":{"matches":12,"possession":48.3,"shots":12.3,"xg_per_shot":0.084,"corners":3.7,"corners_per_shot":0.297,"finishing_vs_xg":0.47},"possession_gap":-7.6},"strength":0.303,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.press_matchup","section":"§4.2","tier":5,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Pressing intensity and defensive line height are not in the ingested stats, so the press matchup is not assessed. Possession is not a substitute for PPDA and is not used as one.","evidence":{"requires":["ppda","defensive_line_height"]},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.home","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Charlton Athletic are scoring about what their chances are worth.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":-0.06,"matches":12},"strength":0.1,"moves":[]},{"id":"style.finishing.away","section":"§2.1","tier":5,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Norwich City have scored 6 more than the chances they made over 12 games, a gap that usually closes rather than holds.","evidence":{"goals_minus_xg_per_match":0.47,"matches":12},"strength":0.25,"moves":[]},{"id":"referee.tendency","section":"§13","tier":5,"state":"THIN","note":"120 yellow cards in this referee's last 29 games, where 112 would be usual in this league, and 3 reds. — though 29 games is too few to read much into, so it is left out of the call.","evidence":{"matches":29,"yellows_per_match":4.14,"reds_per_match":0.103,"league_yellows_per_match":3.86,"league_reds_per_match":0.135,"yellow_ratio":1.07,"red_ratio":0.77,"sample":29,"required":30},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"fatigue.travel","section":"§6.4","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Routine trip of 154 km for Norwich City.","evidence":{"travel_km":154},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.weather","section":"§6.2","tier":6,"state":"COMPUTED","note":"Nothing in the forecast worth mentioning.","evidence":{"rain_mm":null,"wind_kph":9.5,"temperature_c":14,"description":"unknown"},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.pitch","section":"§6.3","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"No pitch condition reported for this fixture.","evidence":{},"strength":0,"moves":[]},{"id":"environment.venue","section":"§6.1","tier":6,"state":"UNAVAILABLE","note":"Attendance is only published after kickoff, so crowd size cannot be assessed in advance. Home advantage is carried by the fitted rating rather than estimated here.","evidence":{"home_adv":0.15985256191664718},"strength":0,"moves":[]}],"pass_reason":"call rule: value","preview":"Norwich City are in trouble, and not only on results. Norwich City have been out-created in six of their last ten games. And they have scored 16 in their last ten from chances that would usually bring about 10. That finishing is running hot. On top of that, they have conceded 21 in their last ten from chances that would usually cost about 13. They have been punished for very little. Until Norwich City sort that out, they are there to be got at.","external":{"bsd_prediction":{"id":5822,"created_at":"2026-10-18T02:15:33Z","event":{"id":214109,"event_date":"2026-10-24T11:30:00Z","status":"notstarted","home_team_id":201,"home_team":"Charlton Athletic","away_team_id":209,"away_team":"Norwich City","league_id":12,"league_name":"Championship"},"recommendations":{"favorite":"A","favorite_prob":42.4,"bet_favorite":false,"over_15":false,"over_25":false,"over_35":false,"btts":false,"winner":false},"model":{"confidence":0.424,"version":"dc-blend-v1"}}},"computed_at":1792836343,"verdicts":[],"locked":false,"colors":{"home":"#c71028","away":"#0f8d3f"},"venue":{"name":"The Valley","city":"London","capacity":27111},"pulled":[],"published":[]}